Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

Statistics for Spatial Data.

The use of machine learning algorithms frequently involves careful tuning of learning parameters and model hyperparameters. Unfortunately, this tuning is often a "black art" requiring expert experience, rules of thumb, or sometimes brute-force search. There is therefore great appeal for automatic approaches that can optimize the performance of any given learning algorithm to the problem at hand. In this work, we consider this problem through the framework of Bayesian optimization, in which a learning algorithm's generalization performance is modeled as a sample from a Gaussian process (GP). We show that certain choices for the nature of the GP, such as the type of kernel and the treatment of its hyperparameters, can play a crucial role in obtaining a good optimizer that can achieve expertlevel performance. We describe new algorithms that take into account the variable cost (duration) of learning algorithm experiments and that can leverage the presence of multiple cores for parallel experimentation. We show that these proposed algorithms improve on previous automatic procedures and can reach or surpass human expert-level optimization for many algorithms including latent Dirichlet allocation, structured SVMs and convolutional neural networks.

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Practical Bayesian Optimization of Machine Learning Algorithms

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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Big Data applications are typically associated with systems involving large numbers of users, massive complex software systems, and large-scale heterogeneous computing and storage architectures. The construction of such systems involves many distributed design choices. The end products (e.g., recommendation systems, medical analysis tools, real-time game engines, speech recognizers) thus involve many tunable configuration parameters. These parameters are often specified and hard-coded into the software by various developers or teams. If optimized jointly, these parameters can result in significant improvements. Bayesian optimization is a powerful tool for the joint optimization of design choices that is gaining great popularity in recent years. It promises greater automation so as to increase both product quality and human productivity. This review paper introduces Bayesian optimization, highlights some of its methodological aspects, and showcases a wide range of applications.

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Taking the Human Out of the Loop: A Review of Bayesian Optimization

We present two recently released R packages, DiceKriging and DiceOptim, for the approximation and the optimization of expensive-to-evaluate deterministic functions. Following a self-contained mini tutorial on Kriging-based approximation and optimization, the functionalities of both packages are detailed and demonstrated in two distinct sections. In particular, the versatility of DiceKriging with respect to trend and noise specifications, covariance parameter estimation, as well as conditional and unconditional simulations are illustrated on the basis of several reproducible numerical experiments. We then put to the fore the implementation of sequential and parallel optimization strategies relying on the expected improvement criterion on the occasion of DiceOptim’s presentation. An appendix is dedicated to complementary mathematical and computational details.

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00495766/document

DiceKriging, DiceOptim: Two R Packages for the Analysis of Computer Experiments by Kriging-Based Metamodeling and Optimization

The optimization of expensive-to-evaluate functions generally relies on metamodel-based exploration strategies. Many deterministic global optimization algorithms used in the field of computer experiments are based on Kriging (Gaussian process regression). Starting with a spatial predictor including a measure of uncertainty, they proceed by iteratively choosing the point maximizing a criterion which is a compromise between predicted performance and uncertainty. Distributing the evaluation of such numerically expensive objective functions on many processors is an appealing idea. Here we investigate a multi-points optimization criterion, the multipoints expected improvement (\(q-{\mathbb E}I\)), aimed at choosing several points at the same time. An analytical expression of the \(q-{\mathbb E}I\) is given when q = 2, and a consistent statistical estimate is given for the general case. We then propose two classes of heuristic strategies meant to approximately optimize the \(q-{\mathbb E}I\), and apply them to the classical Branin-Hoo test-case function. It is finally demonstrated within the covered example that the latter strategies perform as good as the best Latin Hypercubes and Uniform Designs ever found by simulation (2000 designs drawn at random for every q ∈ [1,10]).

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Kriging is well-suited to parallelize optimization

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the volume of the excursion set of a function f:? d ?? above a given threshold, under a probability measure on ? d that is assumed to be known. In the industrial world, this corresponds to the problem of estimating a probability of failure of a system. When only an expensive-to-simulate model of the system is available, the budget for simulations is usually severely limited and therefore classical Monte Carlo methods ought to be avoided. One of the main contributions of this article is to derive SUR (stepwise uncertainty reduction) strategies from a Bayesian formulation of the problem of estimating a probability of failure. These sequential strategies use a Gaussian process model of f and aim at performing evaluations of f as efficiently as possible to infer the value of the probability of failure. We compare these strategies to other strategies also based on a Gaussian process model for estimating a probability of failure.

https://hal-supelec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00689580/document

Sequential design of computer experiments for the estimation of a probability of failure

This paper addresses the issue of designing experiments for a metamodel that needs to be accurate for a certain level of the response value. Such situation is encountered in particular in constrained optimization and reliability analysis. Here, we propose an iterative strategy to build designs of experiments, which is based on an explicit trade-off between reduction of global uncertainty and exploration of the regions of interest. The method is illustrated on several test-problems. It is shown that a substantial reduction of error can be achieved in the crucial regions, with reasonable loss on the global accuracy. The method is finally applied to a reliability analysis problem; it is found that the adaptive designs significantly outperform classical space-filling designs.

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Adaptive Designs of Experiments for Accurate Approximation of a Target Region

Responses of many real-world problems can only be evaluated perturbed by noise. In order to make an efficient optimization of these problems possible, intelligent optimization strategies successfully coping with noisy evaluations are required. In this article, a comprehensive review of existing kriging-based methods for the optimization of noisy functions is provided. In summary, ten methods for choosing the sequential samples are described using a unified formalism. They are compared on analytical benchmark problems, whereby the usual assumption of homoscedastic Gaussian noise made in the underlying models is meet. Different problem configurations (noise level, maximum number of observations, initial number of observations) and setups (covariance functions, budget, initial sample size) are considered. It is found that the choices of the initial sample size and the covariance function are not critical. The choice of the method, however, can result in significant differences in the performance. In particular, the three most intuitive criteria are found as poor alternatives. Although no criterion is found consistently more efficient than the others, two specialized methods appear more robust on average.

/pdf/a-benchmark-of-kriging-based-infill-criteria-for-noisy-81d3lr9ca1.pdf

David Ginsbourger

Papers

DiceKriging, DiceOptim: Two R Packages for the Analysis of Computer Experiments by Kriging-Based Metamodeling and Optimization

Kriging is well-suited to parallelize optimization

Sequential design of computer experiments for the estimation of a probability of failure

Adaptive Designs of Experiments for Accurate Approximation of a Target Region

A benchmark of kriging-based infill criteria for noisy optimization