David Greenlaw

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyze the recent experience of advanced economies using both econometric methods and case studies and conclude that countries with debt above 80% of GDP and persistent current-account deficits are vulnerable to a rapid fiscal deterioration as a result of these tipping-point dynamics.

TL;DR: This article found that the most important and reliable instrument of monetary policy is the short-term interest rate, and discussed the implications of this finding for Fed policy going forward, concluding that the Fed's balance sheet will stay large.

TL;DR: The authors argue that the Federal Reserve can improve communication in the current environment by moving away from time-based forward guidance, clarifying how interest rates are likely to change given new information, and providing more information in the Summary of Economic Projections, and argue that, except under unusual circumstances, this is an imprudent strategy as it mutes the effect of macroeconomic news on interest rates and unnecessarily places restrictions on future Federal Reserve action when new information arrives.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyze the recent experience of advanced economies using both econometric methods and case studies and conclude that countries with debt above 80% of GDP and persistent current-account deficits are vulnerable to a rapid fiscal deterioration as a result of these tipping-point dynamics.

TL;DR: This article found that the most important and reliable instrument of monetary policy is the short-term interest rate, and discussed the implications of this finding for Fed policy going forward, and they also pointed out that the Fed actions and announcements were not a dominant determinant of 10-year yields and that the effects tended not to persist.