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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Beginning with Emlen (1966) and MacArthur and Pianka (1966) and extending through the last ten years, several authors have sought to predict the foraging behavior of animals by means of mathematical models. These models are very similar,in that they all assume that the fitness of a foraging animal is a function of the efficiency of foraging measured in terms of some "currency" (Schoener, 1971) -usually energy- and that natural selection has resulted in animals that forage so as to maximize this fitness. As a result of these similarities, the models have become known as "optimal foraging models"; and the theory that embodies them, "optimal foraging theory." The situations to which optimal foraging theory has been applied, with the exception of a few recent studies, can be divided into the following four categories: (1) choice by an animal of which food types to eat (i.e., optimal diet); (2) choice of which patch type to feed in (i.e., optimal patch choice); (3) optimal allocation of time to different patches; and (4) optimal patterns and speed of movements. In this review we discuss each of these categories separately, dealing with both the theoretical developments and the data that permit tests of the predictions. The review is selective in the sense that we emphasize studies that either develop testable predictions or that attempt to test predictions in a precise quantitative manner. We also discuss what we see to be some of the future developments in the area of optimal foraging theory and how this theory can be related to other areas of biology. Our general conclusion is that the simple models so far formulated are supported are supported reasonably well by available data and that we are optimistic about the value both now and in the future of optimal foraging theory. We argue, however, that these simple models will requre much modification, espicially to deal with situations that either cannot easily be put into one or another of the above four categories or entail currencies more complicated that just energy.

Citation classic - optimal foraging - a selective review of theory and tests

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

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The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

Species distribution models (SDMs) use spatial environmental data to make inferences on species' range limits and habitat suitability. Conceptually, these models aim to determine and map components of a species' ecological niche through space and time, and they have become important tools in pure and applied ecology and evolutionary biology. Most approaches are correlative in that they statistically link spatial data to species distribution records. An alternative strategy is to explicitly incorporate the mechanistic links between the functional traits of organisms and their environments into SDMs. Here, we review how the principles of biophysical ecology can be used to link spatial data to the physiological responses and constraints of organisms. This provides a mechanistic view of the fundamental niche which can then be mapped to the landscape to infer range constraints. We show how physiologically based SDMs can be developed for different organisms in different environmental contexts. Mechanistic SDMs have different strengths and weaknesses to correlative approaches, and there are many exciting and unexplored prospects for integrating the two approaches. As physiological knowledge becomes better integrated into SDMs, we will make more robust predictions of range shifts in novel or non-equilibrium contexts such as invasions, translocations, climate change and evolutionary shifts.

http://max2.ese.u-psud.fr/epc/conservation/PDFs/HIPE/Kearney2009.pdf

Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges.

A detailed assessment of near-shore temperature changes is needed for improved forecasts of the consequences of coastal warming. Here, changes in coastal sea surface temperature are estimated, showing that although 71% of the world's coastlines are warming, the rates of change have varied spatially.

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Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming

We predicted that both refuge dimension and growth form would influence settlement and short-term post-setUement success (57 d) of sessile marine invertebrates that live attached to hard substrata in low energy environments. Individuals with unlimited attachment to the substrata should rapidly be protected by their growth form, thus decreasing their need to settle in refuges and limiting the length of time any locations on heterogeneous substrata act as refuges. Alternatively, organisms with limited attachment to the substrata should remain susceptible to the causes of mortality for a longer time, and as a result should settle in high quality refuges [sites that protect individuals from competitors, predators or physical disturbance events until either a size refuge or reproductive maturity is obtained). Results agreed with these predictions for 4 species of invertebrates examined on both the topographically complex surface of the solitary ascidian Styela plicata (hereafter Styela) and on settlement plates w ~ t h uniformly spaced roughness elements that mimicked the heights of roughness elements (2.0 and 5.0 rnm) found on Styela in Beaufort, North Carollna, USA. On all surfaces, the 2 species with limited attachment to the substrata, Balanus sp. (aclonal, solitary) and Bugula neritina (clonal, arborescent), settled almost exclusively in the location that provided individuals with the best refuge: the crevices formed where the bases of roughness elements intersect with the flat surfaces. Additionally, when roughness elements of various heights were present (Styela, range: 0 6 to 8.8 mm), intermediate size roughness elements (2.0 < X 1 5 . 0 mm) were picked over 72% of the time. Settlement locations and locations where survival were enhanced were less consistent for the 2 species with unlimited attachment to the substrata: a clonal, encrusting form (Schjzoporella errata) and a clonal stolon-mat form (Tubularia crocea). Fewer individuals of these 2 species settled on roughness elements on Styela and when they did, they were not restricted to the bases of the roughness elements. On the plate surfaces, most settlement did occur in crevices, but both species grew away from this location w~thin days and short-term survival was not consistently greater in this location. Additional trials were run on plates with pits of the same maximum dimensions as the tested roughness elements (2.0 and 5.0 mm depth) to see if crevices and pits provide refuges of equal quality for newly settled individuals. Only survival of Balanus sp. recruits was greatest in both crevlces and pits. Evidence for active choice of settlement location comes from consistent results in trials in which some larvae settled in greater numbers on specific size roughness elements on Styela and in areas of high erosion. Overall, these results show that one must be very cautious when generalizing about refuge quality on heterogeneous surfaces, and to determine if a location is a spatial refuge, i t is critical to consider: (1) the dimensions of the larva, (2) the relative dimensions of the individual and potential refuge location at any point in time from the moment settlement occurred, and (3) the growth form of the individual which is related to its need for protection from biotic and abiotic sources of mortality.

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Settlement and Early Post-Settlement Survival of Sessile Marine Invertebrates on Topographically Complex Surfaces: The Importance of Refuge Dimensions and Adult Morphology

Response of intertidal populations to climate: Effects of extreme events versus long term change

Ranking of settlement cues by barnacle larvae: influence of surface contour

Aim We tested whether the contraction of the equatorward boundary of an intertidal organism, the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, was due to high summer temperatures limiting mortality. Location The Atlantic coast of the United States. Methods Field transplant experiments were conducted at three locations along the US Atlantic coast. Survival and heat shock protein 70 expression were determined at biweekly intervals. Air and water temperature profiles were used to model current and historical patterns of mortality, and to determine rates of temperature change. Results High levels of mortality and expression of the inducible heat shock protein 70 were observed after multiple consecutive aerial exposures of 32 � Co r greater. Since 1960, seasonal air and water temperatures have increased along the eastern US seaboard, and south of Lewes, DE (38.8� N) summer sea surface temperature increases have exceeded the upper lethal limits of this organism. Main conclusions Along the southern portion of its range, intertidal populations of M. edulis have experienced catastrophic mortality directly associated with summer high temperatures. Over the past 50 years, a geographic contraction of the southern, equatorward range edge of M. edulis has occurred, shifting the range edge approximately 350 km north of the previous limit at Cape Hatteras, NC (35.2� N).

David S. Wethey

Papers

Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming

Settlement and Early Post-Settlement Survival of Sessile Marine Invertebrates on Topographically Complex Surfaces: The Importance of Refuge Dimensions and Adult Morphology

Response of intertidal populations to climate: Effects of extreme events versus long term change

Ranking of settlement cues by barnacle larvae: influence of surface contour

Rising environmental temperatures and biogeography: poleward range contraction of the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis L., in the western Atlantic