Showing papers by "Deborah Balk published in 2007"

The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones:

Abstract: Settlements in coastal lowlands are especially vulnerable to risks resulting from climate change, yet these lowlands are densely settled and growing rapidly. In this paper, we undertake the fi rst global review of the population and urban settlement patterns in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), defi ned here as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level. Overall, this zone covers 2 per cent of the world's land area but contains 10 per cent of the world's population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population. A dis- proportionate number of the countries with a large share of their population in this zone are small island countries, but most of the countries with large populations in the zone are large countries with heavily populated delta regions. On average, the Least Developed Countries have a higher share of their population living in the zone (14 per cent) than do OECD countries (10 per cent), with even greater disparities in the urban shares (21 per cent compared to 11 per cent). Almost two- thirds of urban settlements with populations greater than 5 million fall, at least partly, in the zone. In some countries (most notably China), urbanization is driving a movement in population towards the coast. Reducing the risk of disasters related to climate change in coastal settlements will require a combination of mitigation, migration and settlement modifi cation.

Tsunami Mortality Estimates and Vulnerability Mapping in Aceh, Indonesia

Abstract: Objectives. We aimed to quantify tsunami mortality and compare approaches to mortality assessment in the emergency context in Aceh, Indonesia, where the impact of the 2004 tsunami was greatest. Methods. Mortality was estimated using geographic information systems‐based vulnerability models and demographic methods from surveys of tsunamidisplaced populations. Results. Tsunami mortality in Aceh as estimated by demographic models was 131 066 and was similar to official figures of 128 063; however, it was a conservative estimate of actual mortality and is substantially less than official estimates of 168 561 presumed dead, which included those classified as missing. Tsunami impact was greatest in the district of Aceh Jaya, where an estimated 27.0% (n=23862) of the population perished; Aceh Besar and Banda Aceh were also severely affected, with mortality at 21.0% (n = 61 650) and 11.5% (n = 25 903), respectively. Mortality was estimated at 23.7% for the population at risk and 5.6% overall. Conclusions. Mortality estimates were derived using methodologies that can be applied in future disasters when predisaster demographic data are not available. Models could be useful in the early stages of disaster response by facilitating geographic targeting and management of humanitarian assistance. (Am J Public Health. 2007;97:S146‐S151. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2006.095240)

** DRAFT** Not for Citation or Circulation ** The Global Distribution of Infant Mortality: A subnational spatial view

Abstract: Using data from household surveys, vital statistics and other administrative sources, we compile a spatially explicit dataset detailing infant mortality rates in over 10,000 national and subnational units worldwide, benchmarked to the year 2000. Although their resolution is highly variable, subnational data are available for over 90% of non-OECD population. Concentration of global infant deaths is higher than implied by national data alone. Assigning both national and subnational data to map grid cells so that they may be easily integrated with other geographic data, we generate infant mortality rates for environmental regions, including biomes and coastal zones, by continent. Rates for these regions also show striking refinements from higher resolution data. Possibilities and limitations for related work are discussed.

New Methods for Understanding Intra-urban Contours at a Global Scale: An Application of Dense Sampling Methods of QuikSCAT Scatterometer with Population and Housing Data

Abstract: A global and consistent characterization of land use and land change in urban and suburban environments are crucial for many fundamental social and economic science studies and applications Here, we present for the first time a dense sampling method (DSM) that uses satellite scatterometer data at a coarse resolution (~12 km) to delineate urban and intra-urban areas at a much higher resolution (~1 km) The trade-off is that the daily or near daily temporal resolution is reduced to yearly or multi-year time scale, which is still appropriate to map urban areas and to identify interannual changes in most cases The DSM results will be analyzed together with information on population and housing censuses, with Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) of moderate and high spatial resolution optical satellite imagery, and with both DMSP night lights