This paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of extreme seasonal events in the Amazon region, focusing on drought and floods. The review includes a history of droughts and floods in the past, in the present and some discussions on future extremes in the context of climate change and its impacts on the Amazon region. Several extreme hydrological events, some of them characterized as ‘once in a century’, have been reported in the Amazon region during the last decade. While abundant rainfall in various sectors of the basin has determined extreme floods along the river's main stem in 1953, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2012–2015, deficient rainfall in 1912, 1926, 1963, 1980, 1983, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 has caused anomalously low river levels, and an increase in the risk and number of fires in the region, with consequences for humans. This is consistent with changes in the variability of the hydrometeorology of the basin and suggests that extreme hydrological events have been more frequent in the last two decades. Some of these intense/reduced rainfalls and subsequent floods/droughts were associated (but not exclusively) with La Nina/El Nino events. In addition, moisture transport anomalies from the tropical Atlantic into Amazonia, and from northern to southern Amazonia alter the water cycle in the region year-to-year. We also assess the impacts of such extremes on natural and human systems in the region, considering ecological, economic and societal impacts in urban and rural areas, particularly during the recent decades. In the context of the future climate change, studies show a large range of uncertainty, but suggest that drought might intensify through the 21st century.

Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts

Thank you very much for reading nonparametrics statistical methods based on ranks. Maybe you have knowledge that, people have look hundreds times for their favorite novels like this nonparametrics statistical methods based on ranks, but end up in harmful downloads. Rather than enjoying a good book with a cup of coffee in the afternoon, instead they are facing with some malicious virus inside their desktop computer.

Nonparametrics Statistical Methods Based On Ranks

Abstract Large changes in the hydrology of the western United States have been observed since the mid-twentieth century. These include a reduction in the amount of precipitation arriving as snow, a decline in snowpack at low and midelevations, and a shift toward earlier arrival of both snowmelt and the centroid (center of mass) of streamflows. To project future water supply reliability, it is crucial to obtain a better understanding of the underlying cause or causes for these changes. A regional warming is often posited as the cause of these changes without formal testing of different competitive explanations for the warming. In this study, a rigorous detection and attribution analysis is performed to determine the causes of the late winter/early spring changes in hydrologically relevant temperature variables over mountain ranges of the western United States. Natural internal climate variability, as estimated from two long control climate model simulations, is insufficient to explain the rapid increase in...

Detection and Attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States.

Phragmites australis is a cosmopolitan grass and often the dominant species in the ecosystems it inhabits. Due to high intraspecific diversity and phenotypic plasticity, P. australis has an extensive ecological amplitude and a great capacity to acclimate to adverse environmental conditions; it can therefore offer valuable insights into plant responses to global change. Here we review the ecology and ecophysiology of prominent P. australis lineages and their responses to multiple forms of global change. Key findings of our review are that: (1) P. australis lineages are well-adapted to regions of their phylogeographic origin and therefore respond differently to changes in climatic conditions such as temperature or atmospheric CO2; (2) each lineage consists of populations that may occur in geographically different habitats and contain multiple genotypes; (3) the phenotypic plasticity of functional and fitness-related traits of a genotype determine the responses to global change factors; (4) genotypes with high plasticity to environmental drivers may acclimate or even vastly expand their ranges, genotypes of medium plasticity must acclimate or experience range-shifts, and those with low plasticity may face local extinction; (5) responses to ancillary types of global change, like shifting levels of soil salinity, flooding, and drought, are not consistent within lineages and depend on adaptation of individual genotypes. These patterns suggest that the diverse lineages of P. australis will undergo intense selective pressure in the face of global change such that the distributions and interactions of co-occurring lineages, as well as those of genotypes within-lineages, are very likely to be altered. We propose that the strong latitudinal clines within and between P. australis lineages can be a useful tool for predicting plant responses to climate change in general and present a conceptual framework for using P. australis lineages to predict plant responses to global change and its consequences.

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Cosmopolitan Species As Models for Ecophysiological Responses to Global Change: The Common Reed Phragmites australis

The cosmopolitan reed grass Phragmites australis (Poaceae) is an intensively studied species globally with a substantial focus in the last two decades on its invasive populations. Here we argue that P. australis meets the criteria to serve as a model organism for studying plant invasions. First, as a dominant species in globally important wetland habitats, it has generated significant pre-existing research, demonstrating a high potential for funding. Second, this plant is easy to grow and use in experiments. Third, it grows abundantly in a wide range of ecological systems and plant communities, allowing a broad range of research questions to be addressed. We formalize the designation of P. australis as a model organism for plant invasions in order to encourage and standardize collaborative research on multiple spatial scales that will help to integrate studies on the ecology and evolution of P. australis invasive populations, their response to global environmental change, and implications for biological security. Such an integrative framework can serve as guidance for studying invasive plant species at the population level and global spatial scale.

/pdf/phragmites-australis-as-a-model-organism-for-studying-plant-j58s23equ9.pdf

Phragmites australis as a model organism for studying plant invasions

/pdf/comparing-discharge-estimates-made-via-the-bam-algorithm-in-4wjr6gfllw.pdf

Comparing Discharge Estimates Made via the BAM Algorithm in High-Order Arctic Rivers Derived Solely From Optical CubeSat, Landsat, and Sentinel-2 Data

Arctic rivers drain ~15% of the global land surface and significantly influence local communities and economies, freshwater and marine ecosystems, and global climate. However, trusted and public knowledge of pan-Arctic rivers is inadequate, especially for small rivers and across Eurasia, inhibiting understanding of the Arctic response to climate change. Here, we calculate daily streamflow in 486,493 pan-Arctic river reaches from 1984-2018 by assimilating 9.18 million river discharge estimates made from 155,710 satellite images into hydrologic model simulations. We reveal larger and more heterogenous total water export (3-17% greater) and water export acceleration (factor of 1.2-3.3 larger) than previously reported, with substantial differences across basins, ecoregions, stream orders, human regulation, and permafrost regimes. We also find significant changes in the spring freshet and summer stream intermittency. Ultimately, our results represent an updated, publicly available, and more accurate daily understanding of Arctic rivers uniquely enabled by recent advances in hydrologic modeling and remote sensing. The authors combine satellite data with hydrologic models to investigate recent changes in pan-Arctic river discharge magnitude, trends, and seasonality for nearly half a million rivers. They reveal that these rivers likely exported 3-17% more water to the global ocean than previously thought from 1984-2018.

Recent changes to Arctic river discharge.

Constraining Remote River Discharge Estimation Using Reach-Scale Geomorphology

https://escholarship.org/content/qt09c985b4/qt09c985b4.pdf?t=q4k2ye

A multidisciplinary coastal vulnerability assessment for local government focused on ecosystems, Santa Barbara area, California

As a biodiverse region under a Mediterranean climate with a mix of highly developed and natural watersheds, coastal Santa Barbara County (SB), located in southern California, is susceptible to the hydrologic impacts of climate change. This study investigates the potential changes in hydro-meteorological variables in this region as well as their societal and ecological implications for projected climate conditions during the twenty-first century. Daily streamflow ensembles from 135 coastal watersheds for the period 2021–2100 are developed using the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model forced with downscaled precipitation and temperature projections derived from 10 climate models in the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, and two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP, 4.5 and 8.5). Analysis of the projected ensemble precipitation and streamflow series relative to historical conditions (1961–2000) shows (i) minimal change in annual precipitation (median change within ±3%); (ii) an altered seasonal rainfall distribution with a decrease in rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season (Oct–Dec), an increase during the Jan–Mar period, and a decrease at the end of the season (Apr–Jun); (iii) increases in the magnitude and frequency of large storms (> 36 mm/day) which combined with a shorter rainy season, lead to increases in annual peak flows; and (iv) the propagation of the altered precipitation characteristics resulting in nonlinear changes in the magnitude and variability of annual maximum discharges (i.e., mean, standard deviation, skew) impacting estimated return period discharges (e.g., estimated 100-year flood discharges for the period 2061–2100 under 8.5 increase by up to 185%). While these results are specific to southern coastal California, the nature of nonlinear hydrologic response to altered precipitation characteristics underscores the value of regional studies investigating potential impacts of climate projections on streamflow dynamics.

Dongmei Feng

Papers

Comparing Discharge Estimates Made via the BAM Algorithm in High-Order Arctic Rivers Derived Solely From Optical CubeSat, Landsat, and Sentinel-2 Data

Recent changes to Arctic river discharge.

Constraining Remote River Discharge Estimation Using Reach-Scale Geomorphology

A multidisciplinary coastal vulnerability assessment for local government focused on ecosystems, Santa Barbara area, California

Propagation of future climate conditions into hydrologic response from coastal southern California watersheds