Showing papers in "Climatic Change in 2019"

Decarbonization and its discontents: a critical energy justice perspective on four low-carbon transitions

Abstract: Low-carbon transitions are often assumed as positive phenomena, because they supposedly reduce carbon emissions, yet without vigilance, there is evidence that they can in fact create new injustices and vulnerabilities, while also failing to address pre-existing structural drivers of injustice in energy markets and the wider socio-economy. With this in mind, we examine four European low-carbon transitions from an unusual normative perspective: that of energy justice. Because a multitude of studies looks at the co-benefits of renewable energy, low-carbon mobility, or climate change mitigation, we instead ask in this paper what are the types of injustices associated with low-carbon transitions? Relatedly, in what ways do low-carbon transitions worsen social risks or vulnerabilities? Lastly, what policies might be deployed to make these transitions more just? We answer these questions by first elaborating an “energy justice” framework consisting of four distinct dimensions—distributive justice (costs and benefits), procedural justice (due process), cosmopolitan justice (global externalities), and recognition justice (vulnerable groups). We then examine four European low-carbon transitions—nuclear power in France, smart meters in Great Britain, electric vehicles in Norway, and solar energy in Germany—through this critical justice lens. In doing so, we draw from original data collected from 64 semi-structured interviews with expert participants as well as five public focus groups and the monitoring of twelve large internet forums. We document 120 distinct energy injustices across these four transitions, including 19 commonly recurring injustices. We aim to show how when low-carbon transitions unfold, deeper injustices related to equity, distribution, and fairness invariably arise.

Social justice implications of US managed retreat buyout programs

Abstract: Global climate change poses significant risks to coastal and riverine communities. Managed retreat, the purposeful movement of people and infrastructure out of vulnerable floodplains, is one possible adaptation strategy. The USA has already engaged in a limited amount of retreat by providing federal funds to purchase and demolish or relocate vulnerable properties. As retreat programs are expected to expand in size and frequency to address the increased risks posed by climate change, a review of how such property acquisition programs have been implemented is timely. Specifically, decisions made by government officials regarding where to acquire properties have significant potential social justice implications, as buyouts could promote or reduce existing social inequities, but it is unclear how such decisions are being made. A review of eight US buyout programs suggests that buyouts, as practiced, lack transparency, which may increase public distrust of the process and reduce participation. Moreover, decisions often involve political motivations and rely on cost-benefit logic that may promote disproportionate retreat in low-income or minority communities, continuing historic patterns of social inequity. However, as low-income communities in the USA also tend to be highly vulnerable to climate-exacerbated hazards, a decision not to relocate may also promote disproportionate harm. The buyout programs reviewed provide examples of how to mitigate these concerns through increased transparency, emphasis on relocation, explicit focus on social inequality, longer-term and larger-scale holistic approaches, and participatory pre-disaster planning. Further research on past programs is needed to evaluate outcomes and processes to improve future adaptation efforts.

Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase

Abstract: The assessment of the impacts of climate change at different levels of global warming helps inform national and international policy discussion around mitigation targets. This paper provides consistent estimates of global and regional impacts and risks at increases in global mean temperature up to 5 °C above pre-industrial levels, for over 30 indicators representing temperature extremes and heatwaves, hydrological change, floods and droughts and proxies for impacts on crop yields. At the global scale, all the impacts that could plausibly be either adverse or beneficial are adverse, and impacts and risks increase with temperature change. For example, the global average chance of a major heatwave increases from 5% in 1981–2010 to 28% at 1.5 °C and 92% at 4 °C, of an agricultural drought increases from 9 to 24% at 1.5 °C and 61% at 4 °C, and of the 50-year return period river flood increases from 2 to 2.4% at 1.5 °C and 5.4% at 4 °C. The chance of a damaging hot spell for maize increases from 5 to 50% at 4 °C, whilst the chance for rice rises from 27 to 46%. There is considerable uncertainty around these central estimates, and impacts and risks vary between regions. Some impacts—for example heatwaves—increase rapidly as temperature increases, whilst others show more linear responses. The paper presents estimates of the risk of impacts exceeding specific targets and demonstrates that these estimates are sensitive to the thresholds used.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity: is below 2 °C enough?

Abstract: Large changes in biodiversity are expected to occur if climate change continues at its current pace. Adverse effects include changes in species habitats and compositions, and consequently changes in ecosystem functioning. We assessed the magnitude of expected changes of biodiversity by performing a meta-analysis of the responses of species distributions to climate change. We focused on the proportion of local remaining species and their habitats. We summarized 97 studies and calculated two effect-size metrics from their results to quantify changes in biodiversity. These metrics are the fraction of remaining species (FRS) and the fraction of remaining area (FRA) with suitable climate for each species. Both metrics calculate deviations from the original biodiversity state and together they indicate biodiversity intactness. We found an expected gradual decrease in both FRS and FRA with significant reductions of 14% and 35% between 1 and 2 °C increase in global mean temperatures. Strong impacts are projected for both mammals and plants with FRS reductions of 19%. The climate-change response of biodiversity varies strongly among taxonomic groups and biomes. For some taxonomic groups the FRA declines strongly beyond 3 °C of temperature increase. Although these estimates are conservative, as we assume that species are unable to disperse or adapt, we conclude that already at moderate levels (i.e., 1–2 °C) of temperature increase a significant decrease of original biodiversity is projected. Our research supports the pledge to limit climate change to 1.5 °C and preferably lower to protect biodiversity.

The impact of climate change and variability on coffee production: a systematic review

Abstract: Coffee is one of the most important globally traded commodities and substantially contributes to the livelihoods of millions of smallholders worldwide. As a climate-sensitive perennial crop, coffee is likely to be highly susceptible to changes in climate. Using a systematic approach, we explore evidence from the published academic literature of the influence of climate change and variability, specifically drought, on coffee production. A number of mostly negative impacts were reported in the current literature, including declines in coffee yield, loss of coffee-optimal areas with significant impacts on major global coffee-producing countries and growth in the distribution of pest and disease that indirectly influence coffee cultivation. Current research also identified positive effects of climate change such as increases in coffee-producing niche, particularly in areas at higher altitudes; however, whether these gains might offset losses from other production areas requires further investigation. Other advantages include increases in pollination services and the beneficial effects of elevated carbon concentration, leading to potential yield improvements. Future priorities should focus on major coffee-growing regions projected to be adversely affected by climate change, with specific attention given to potential adaptation strategies tailored to particular farming conditions such as relocation of coffee plantations to more climatically suitable areas, irrigation and agroforestry. The majority of studies were based in the Americas and concentrated on Arabica coffee. A broader spread of research is therefore required, especially for the large growing regions in Asia and for Robusta coffee, to support sustainable production of the global coffee industry.

The turbulent world of resilience: interpretations and themes for transdisciplinary dialogue

Abstract: Resilience has experienced exponential growth in scholarship and practice over the past several decades. We conduct a meta-analysis of recent review papers on resilience from all relevant fields to distill key themes emanating from both research and practice. These themes reflect prevalent debates, trends and insights from the thousands of underlying papers. The seven themes are: 1) the distinction between resilience as a system trait, process, or outcome; 2) the importance of resilience as a strategy for dealing with uncertainty; 3) a shift from understanding resilience to active resilience building; 4) the incorporation of transformation into resilience; 5) the increasingly normative interpretation of resilience; 6) the growing emphasis on measuring and evaluating resilience; and 7) the mounting critiques of the resilience agenda demanding attention. We discuss each in detail and find that they help explain both why resilience has attracted widespread attention, but also why it is an increasingly contested concept. We offer several steps to engage in productive dialogue across differences in resilience interpretations and conclude that this interand transdisciplinary dialogue is the difficult and necessary work that must be done, if resilience scholarship and practice is to advance in productive ways in the future.

Why could the coffee crop endure climate change and global warming to a greater extent than previously estimated

Abstract: Coffee, one of the most heavily globally traded agricultural commodities, has been categorized as a highly sensitive plant species to progressive climatic change. Here, we summarize recent insights on the coffee plant’s physiological performance at elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2]. We specifically (i) provide new data of crop yields obtained under free-air CO2 enrichment conditions, (ii) discuss predictions on the future of the coffee crop as based on rising temperature and (iii) emphasize the role of [CO2] as a key player for mitigating harmful effects of supra-optimal temperatures on coffee physiology and bean quality. We conclude that the effects of global warming on the climatic suitability of coffee may be lower than previously assumed. We highlight perspectives and priorities for further research to improve our understanding on how the coffee plant will respond to present and progressive climate change.

Managed retreat as a strategy for climate change adaptation in small communities: public health implications

Abstract: In coming decades, sea level rise associated with climate change will make some communities uninhabitable. Managed retreat, or planned relocation, is a proactive response prior to catastrophic necessity. Managed retreat has disruptive health, sociocultural, and economic impacts on communities that relocate. Health impacts include mental health, social capital, food security, water supply, sanitation, infectious diseases, injury, and health care access. We searched peer-reviewed and gray literature for reports on small island or coastal communities at various stages of relocation primarily due to sea level rise. We reviewed these reports to identify public health impacts and barriers to relocation. We identified eight relevant small communities in the USA (Alaska, Louisiana, and Washington), Panama, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu. Affected populations range from 60 to 2700 persons and are predominantly indigenous people who rely on subsistence fishing and agriculture. Few reports directly addressed public health issues. While some relocations were successful, barriers to relocation in other communities include place attachment, potential loss of livelihoods, and lack of funding, suitable land, community consensus, and governance procedures. Further research is needed on the health impacts of managed retreat and how to facilitate population resilience. Studies could include surveillance of health indicators before and after communities relocate due to sea level rise, drought, or other environmental hazards. Lessons learned may inform relocation of both small and large communities affected by climate change.

Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran

Abstract: By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change on surface water availability in Iran over the twenty-first century. Our findings show that increasing water withdrawal in Iran, due to population growth and increased agricultural activities, has been the main source of historical water stress. Increased levels of water stress across Iran are expected to continue or even worsen over the next decades due to projected variability and change in precipitation combined with heightened water withdrawals due to increasing population and socio-economic activities. The greatest rate of decreased water storage is expected in the Urmia Basin, northwest of Iran, (varying from ~ − 8.3 mm/year in 2010–2039 to ~ − 61.6 mm/year in 2070–2099 compared with an observed rate of 4 mm/year in 1976–2005). Human activities, however, strongly dominate the effects of precipitation variability and change. Major shifts toward sustainable land and water management are needed to reduce the impacts of water scarcity in the future, particularly in Iran’s heavily stressed basins like Urmia Basin, which feeds the shrinking Lake Urmia.

Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment

Abstract: Air temperatures play a major role on temperate fruit development, and the projected future warming may thereby bring additional threats. The present study aims at analyzing the impacts of climate change on chilling and heat forcing on European vineyards and olive (V&O) orchards. Chilling portions (CP) and growing degree hours (GDH) were computed yearly for the recent past (1989–2005) and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios (2021–2080), using several regional-global climate models, also considering model uncertainties and biases. Additionally, minimum CP and GDH values found in 90% of all years were also computed. These metrics were then extracted to the current location of V&O in Europe, and CP-GDH delimitations were assessed. For recent past, high CP values are found in north-central European regions, while lower values tend to exist on opposite sides of Europe. Regarding forcing, southern European regions currently show the highest GDH values. Future projections point to an increased warming, particularly under RCP8.5 and for 2041 onwards. A lower/higher CP is projected for south-western/eastern Europe, while most of Europe is projected to have higher GDH. Northern-central European V&O orchards should still have future CP-GDH similar to present values, while most of southern European orchards are expected to have much lower CP and higher GDH, especially under RCP8.5. These changes may bring limitations to some of the world most important V&O producers, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal. The planning of suitable adaptation measures against these threats is critical for the future sustainability of the European V&O sectors.

Stories vs. facts: triggering emotion and action-taking on climate change

Abstract: Climate change is an issue which elicits low engagement, even among concerned segments of the public. While research suggests that the presentation of factual information (e.g., scientific consensus) can be persuasive to some audiences, there is also empirical evidence indicating that it may also increase resistance in others. In this research, we investigate whether climate change narratives structured as stories are better than informational narratives at promoting pro-environmental behavior in diverse audiences. We propose that narratives structured as stories facilitate experiential processing, heightening affective engagement and emotional arousal, which serve as an impetus for action-taking. Across three studies, we manipulate the structure of climate change communications to investigate how this influences narrative transportation, measures of autonomic reactivity indicative of emotional arousal, and pro-environmental behavior. We find that stories are more effective than informational narratives at promoting pro-environmental behavior (studies 1 and 3) and self-reported narrative transportation (study 2), particularly those with negatively valenced endings (study 3). The results of study 3 indicate that embedding information in story structure influences cardiac activity, and subsequently, pro-environmental behavior. These findings connect works from the fields of psychology, neuroscience, narratology, and climate change communication, advancing our understanding of how narrative structure influences engagement with climate change through emotional arousal, which likely incites pro-environmental behavior as the brain’s way of optimizing bodily budgets.

Drawing lines: FEMA and the politics of mapping flood zones

Abstract: Flooding is the most common and damaging of all natural disasters in USA, and climate change is exacerbating the problem Accurate flood maps are critical to communicating flood risk to vulnerable populations, to mitigating and adapting to floods, and to the functioning of the federal flood insurance program Yet, we know little about how the mapping process works in practice This article argues that politics can shape the remapping process in ways that leave communities vulnerable Because mapping takes place within the context of the National Flood Insurance Program, the conversation at the local level often centers on the costs of revising the flood hazard zones rather than the risks associated with flooding This can lead to less than optimal responses by individuals and communities, and suggests that the USA is not adequately preparing for future climate change impacts

Analytical framework to evaluate the level of integration of climate adaptation and mitigation in cities

Abstract: Reduction of carbon emissions and climate-resilience in cities are becoming important objectives to be achieved in order to ensure sustainable urban development pathways. Traditionally, cities have treated climate mitigation and adaptation strategies in isolation, without addressing their potential synergies, conflicts or trade-offs. Recent studies have shown that this can lead to inefficiencies in urban planning, conflicting policy objectives and lost opportunities for synergistic actions. However, in the last few years, we have observed that cities are increasingly moving towards addressing both mitigation and adaptation in urban planning. Cities need to pay particular attention and understand the rationale of both policy objectives whilst considering the integration of the two policies in urban planning and decision-making. This study presents an analytical framework to evaluate the level of integration of climate mitigation and adaptation in cities’ local climate action plans. We tested this framework in nine selected major cities, representatives from all inhabited continents, which are frontrunners in climate action both in their regions and globally. We applied the framework in order to evaluate the level of mitigation and adaptation integration in cities’ CCAPs and further explored the different types of mitigation—adaptation interrelationships that have been considered. A scoring system was also devised in order to allow comparing and ranking of the different CCAPs for their level of integration of adaptation and mitigation. The paper draws good practices to support cities in developing climate change action plans in an integrated way.

Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios

Abstract: For aiming to keep global warming well-below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C, as set out in the Paris Agreement, a full-fledged assessment of negative emission technologies (NETs) that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is crucial to inform science-based policy making. With the Paris Agreement in mind, we re-analyse available scenario evidence to understand the roles of NETs in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios and, for the first time, link this to a systematic review of findings in the underlying literature. In line with previous research, we find that keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires a rapid large-scale deployment of NETs, while for 2 °C, we can still limit NET deployment substantially by ratcheting up near-term mitigation ambition. Most recent evidence stresses the importance of future socio-economic conditions in determining the flexibility of NET deployment and suggests opportunities for hedging technology risks by adopting portfolios of NETs. Importantly, our thematic review highlights that there is a much richer set of findings on NETs than commonly reflected upon both in scientific assessments and available reviews. In particular, beyond the common findings on NETs underpinned by dozens of studies around early scale-up, the changing shape of net emission pathways or greater flexibility in the timing of climate policies, there is a suite of “niche and emerging findings”, e.g. around innovation needs and rapid technological change, termination of NETs at the end of the twenty-first century or the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of NETs that have not been widely appreciated. Future research needs to explore the role of climate damages on NET uptake, better understand the geophysical constraints of NET deployment (e.g. water, geological storage, climate feedbacks), and provide a more systematic assessment of NET portfolios in the context of sustainable development goals.

Indigenous knowledge for seasonal weather and climate forecasting across East Africa

Abstract: Climate information and agro-advisory services are crucial in helping smallholder farmers and pastoralists in East Africa manage climate-related risks and adapt to climate change. However, significant gaps exist in provision of climate information that effectively addresses the needs of farmers and pastoralists. Most farmers and pastoralists, therefore, rely on indigenous knowledge (IK), where local indicators and experiences are used to observe and forecast weather conditions. While IK-based forecasting is inbuilt and established in many communities in East Africa, coordinated research and systematic documentation of IK for weather forecasting, including accuracy and reliability of IK is largely lacking. This paper documents and synthesizes existing IK for weather forecasting in East Africa using case studies from Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda. The results show that farmers and pastoralists use a combination of meteorological, biological, and astrological indicators to forecast local weather conditions. IK weather forecasting is, therefore, crucial in supporting efforts to improve access to climate information in East Africa, especially in resource-poor and vulnerable communities. The paper draws valuable lessons on how farmers and pastoralists in East Africa use IK weather forecasts for making crop and livestock production decisions and demonstrates that the trust and willingness to apply scientific forecasts by farmers and pastoralists is likely to increase when integrated with IK. Therefore, a systematic documentation of IK, and a framework for integrating IK and scientific weather forecasting from national meteorological agencies can improve accuracy, uptake, and use of weather forecasts.

Substantial increase in minimum lake surface temperatures under climate change

Abstract: The annual minimum of lake surface water temperature influences ecological and biogeochemical processes, but variability and change in this extreme have not been investigated. Here, we analysed observational data from eight European lakes and investigated the changes in annual minimum surface water temperature. We found that between 1973 and 2014, the annual minimum lake surface temperature has increased at an average rate of + 0.35 °C decade−1, comparable to the rate of summer average lake surface temperature change during the same period (+ 0.32 °C decade−1). Coherent responses to climatic warming are observed between the increase in annual minimum lake surface temperature and the increase in winter air temperature variations. As a result of the rapid warming of annual minimum lake surface temperatures, some of the studied lakes no longer reach important minimum surface temperature thresholds that occur in winter, with complex and significant potential implications for lakes and the ecosystem services that they provide.

Climate change perception: an analysis of climate change and risk perceptions among farmer types of Indian Western Himalayas

Abstract: Climate change and variability have created widespread risks for farmers’ food and livelihood security in the Himalayas. However, the extent of impacts experienced and perceived by farmers varies, as there is substantial diversity in the demographic, social, and economic conditions. Therefore, it is essential to understand how farmers with different resource-endowment and household characteristics perceive climatic risks. This study aims to analyze how farmer types perceive climate change processes and its impacts to gain insight into locally differentiated concerns by farming communities. The present study is based in the Uttarakhand state of Indian Western Himalayas. We examine farmer perceptions of climate change and how perceived impacts differ across farmer types. Primary household interviews with farming households (n = 241) were done in Chakrata and Bhikiyasian tehsil in Uttarakhand, India. In addition, annual and seasonal patterns of historical data of temperature (1951–2013) and precipitation (1901–2013) were analyzed to estimate trends and validate farmers’ perception. Using statistical methods farmer typology was constructed, and five unique farmer types are identified. Majority of respondents across all farmer types noticed a decrease in summer and winter precipitation and an increase in summer temperature. Whereas the perceptions of impacts of climate change diverged across farmer types, as specific farmer types exclusively experienced few impacts. Impact of climatic risks on household food security and income was significantly perceived stronger by low-resource-endowed subsistence farmers, whereas the landless farmer type exclusively felt impacts on the communities social bond. This deeper understanding of the differentiated perception of impacts has strong implications for agricultural and development policymaking, highlighting the need for providing flexible adaptation options rather than specific solutions to avoid inequalities in fulfilling the needs of the heterogeneous farming communities.

Effects of climate change and adaptation options on winter wheat yield under rainfed Mediterranean conditions in southern Portugal

Abstract: Projected warming and drying trends over the Mediterranean region represent a substantial threat for wheat production. The present study assesses winter wheat yield response to potential climate change and estimates the quantitative effectiveness of using early flowering cultivars and early sowing dates as adaptation options for the major wheat production region of Portugal. A crop model (STICS) is used for this purpose, which is calibrated for yield simulations before projecting future yields. Climate projections over 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are retrieved from bias-adjusted datasets, generated by a ten-member climate model ensemble. Projected intensification of water deficits and more frequent high-temperature events during late spring (April–June), coinciding with the sensitive grain filling stage, primarily result in continuous mean yield losses (relative to 1981–2010) by − 14% (both scenarios) during 2021–2050 and by − 17% (RCP4.5) or − 27% (RCP8.5) during 2051–2080, also accompanied by increased yield variabilities. Of evaluated adaptation options at various levels, using earlier flowering cultivars reveals higher yield gains (26–38%) than that of early sowings (6–10%), which are able to reverse the yield reductions. The adopted early flowering cultivars successfully advance the anthesis onset and grain filling period, which reduces or avoids the risks of exposure to enhanced drought and heat stresses in late spring. In contrast, winter warming during early sowing window could affect vernalization fulfillment by slowing effective chilling accumulation, thus increasing the pre-anthesis growth length with limited effects on advancing reproductive stage. Crop yield projections and explored adaptation options are essential to assess food security prospects (availability and stability) of dry Mediterranean areas, providing crucial insights for appropriate policymaking.

Planned retreat in Global South megacities: disentangling policy, practice, and environmental justice

Abstract: The retreat of urban populations as an adaptation strategy has the potential to protect people, businesses, and infrastructure from the severe impacts of climate change. However, it can also lead to the unjust dislocation of the urban poor whose contributions to climate change are negligible but whose exposure to climatic risk is high. These groups of people also have little say in the decision-making about whether to retreat, when and how, thus raising concerns about equity and justice. In this paper, I examine the policy and practice of managed retreat and its environmental justice dimensions in Manila (Philippines) and Lagos (Nigeria) from 2010 to 2018. Expert interviews, focus group discussions, and policy documents were collected and analyzed for both cities. Findings reveal a complex picture of contradictions. In Lagos, retreat was stated in climate change policy but in practice only the urban poor were forcibly removed from waterfront areas and in their place new urban development projects are being constructed. In Manila, retreat was not mentioned in policy but evidence indicates informal settlers and national government offices were the target of planned retreat. Unlike Lagos, the urban poor in Manila were offered a mortgaged pathway to homeownership outside the city. However, the lack of livelihood opportunities in relocation sites engendered a cycle of retreat and return. This study further discusses how climatic uncertainties, property values, government distrust, utopian imaginaries, and environmental injustices served as barriers to managed retreat in both cities. The paper concludes with a call for an environmentally and socially just approach to retreat. It argues that the rights of the urban poor to the city must be taken into consideration even under complex climatic and socio-ecological disruptions.

Beliefs about climate change in the aftermath of extreme flooding

Abstract: When faced with natural disasters, communities respond in diverse ways, with processes that reflect their cultures, needs, and the extent of damage incurred by the community. Because of their potentially recurring nature, floods offer an opportunity for communities to learn from and adapt to these experiences with the goal of increasing resiliency through reflection, modification of former policies, and adoption of new policies. A key component of a community’s ability to learn from disaster is how community members perceive the causes of extreme flood events and whether there is risk of future similar events. Perceptions of causes of flooding, including climate change, may be influenced by experiencing a flood event, along with individual preferences for various policies put in place to help a community recover. Using data collected from two rounds of public surveys (n = 903) across six Colorado communities flooded in 2013, we investigate whether there is variation across causal understanding of flooding, and whether this variation can be linked to differences in proximity of damages experienced (personal property, neighborhood, or community). By analyzing these variables, along with other variables (time since flood, political affiliation, and worldview), this study improves our understanding of the factors that drive our beliefs about potential causes of floods, focusing on climate change. The findings suggest that the extent of damage experienced at the neighborhood and community levels can have a significant effect on the perceptions of climate change held by the public. In turn, these beliefs about climate change are positively associated with perceptions of risks of future flooding.

Growing season and radial growth predicted for Fagus sylvatica under climate change

Abstract: Climate scenarios for Slovenia suggest an increase in the mean annual temperature by 2 °C over the next six decades, associated with changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation. European beech is an ecologically and economically important forest species in Europe, so it is important to understand the influence of changing conditions on its phenology and productivity for the upcoming years. We hypothesise that the ongoing warming and reduction in precipitation during the growing season will shorten the period of xylem development, thus limiting beech growth in the next decades. Xylem formation was monitored weekly from 2008 to 2016 at two sites in Slovenia. Onset and cessation of cell enlargement and secondary wall formation, as well as xylem growth, are used to evaluate climate-growth relationships by means of partial least squares regression and to predict xylem formation phenology and annual xylem increments under climate change scenarios. A positive correlation of spring phenological phases with March–May temperatures is found. In contrast, autumn phenological phases show a negative correlation with August and September temperatures, while high temperatures at the beginning of the year delay growth cessation. According to the selected climate change scenarios, phenological phases may advance by 2 days decade-1 in spring and delay by 1.5 days decade-1 in autumn. The duration of the growing season may increase by 20 days over the next six decades, resulting in 38 to 83% wider xylem increments. The growth of beech is expected to increase under a warming climate in the sites characterised by abundant water availability.

Evaluating the quality of municipal climate change plans in Canada

Abstract: Plan quality has become an established framework for analyzing the contents of plans and assessing their strengths and deficiencies. The research presented in this paper contributes to academic scholarship on plan quality by evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of climate change plans in 63 of the most populous communities across Canada. Plans were evaluated using a coding protocol consisting of 46 indicators based on eight plan quality characteristics: fact base, goals, policies, implementation, monitoring and evaluation, inter-organizational coordination, participation, and plan organization and presentation. The analysis revealed three key findings that are important for policy and practice. First, Canadian municipal climate change plans prioritize climate change mitigation over adaptation. Second, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation are relatively weak aspects of municipal climate change plans in Canada. Finally, despite the importance that scholars and practitioners ascribe to stakeholder engagement, Canadian municipalities appear to have given insufficient consideration to this element of the climate change plan-making process.

Public support for carbon dioxide removal strategies: the role of tampering with nature perceptions

Abstract: Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) describes a suite of controversial approaches to mitigating climate change that involve removing existing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Through an online survey experiment with US adults (N = 980), we examine three factors that may shape public support for different types of CDR strategies: (1) perceptions that CDR tampers with nature, (2) individual-level variation in the degree to which people are uncomfortable with activities that tamper with nature, and (3) information about the risks and benefits associated with each CDR strategy. Using a moderated mediation analysis, we find that support for different CDR strategies is, in part, a function of how much each strategy is perceived to tamper with nature. Support for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air capture (DAC) was lower than support for afforestation and reforestation (AR), as BECCS and DAC were perceived to tamper with nature more. These effects were particularly strong among individuals generally opposed to the idea of humans interfering with natural processes. Moreover, we find evidence that describing the risks and benefits of each CDR strategy dampens support; for AR and BECCS, this effect was again mediated through perceptions of tampering, while for DAC, the effect of describing these tradeoffs appeared to operate independently of perceived tampering. We conclude that policymakers and science communicators need to be mindful of how CDR strategies are described to the public, as perceptions of tampering with nature may be an important driver of their acceptance.

Climate change: thinking small islands beyond Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

Abstract: Sea level rise and extreme weather events threaten the livelihoods and possibly the long-term existence of whole island nations. While the media, policy, and often scientific arenas essentially focus their attention on Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which are widely recognised as hotspots of global climate change, the situation of the numerous other vulnerable island territories has been relatively neglected. As a result, the focus on SIDS has paved the way for mainstream adaptation research and, in turn, for biases in the interpretation of climate change vulnerability and risks of small islands in general. Here, we argue that such an overly narrow scope severely limits our understanding of island-specific issues that influence island societies’ adaptability to on-going and future climate change. This article reviews the current perspective on challenges and opportunities for climate change adaptation on SIDS and compares it with other types of island territories, especially dependent islands of continental states and semi-autonomous sub-national island jurisdictions (SNIJ). This comparison reveals that despite critical socio-political differences between the respective island types, more general lessons can be learned as island territories at large face similar issues both regarding the drivers of vulnerability and exposure and the adaptation measures needed. We propose an analytical framework for looking ‘beyond SIDS’ that includes the recognition of critical issues (asymmetrical governance structures, archipelagic constellations, inter-island connections) that shape island societies’ vulnerability and leeway for adaptation to climate-related hazards.

An intra-household analysis of farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation to climate change impacts: empirical evidence from drought prone zones of Bangladesh

Abstract: The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly in drought-prone environments. An understanding of perceptions, adaptation strategies, and their determinants including a gender analysis can benefit vulnerable farmers and policy makers. Using a survey of 360 farming household heads and their spouses, this study identified the intra-household perceptions and their determinants, the major strategies adopted by the farmers to adapt to climate change, and the factors that affect their adaptation decision and choice of strategies including the role of intra-household decision making in a drought prone environment of Bangladesh. The adaptation methods identified include short-duration and drought-tolerant rice varieties, supplementary irrigation for crop production, non-rice winter and horticultural crops, and improved channels for irrigation and water harvesting. Discrete choice model results indicate that age, household size, membership in any organization, access to credit, drought severity, amount of cultivated land, and agricultural subsidy significantly influence farmers’ adaptation decision and choices. Results reveal that climate change perceptions of husbands and spouses within the same households differ significantly and intra-household decision making plays a significant role in adaptation decision and selection of alternative adaptation strategies. The results would improve our understanding of farms and farming households and their climate change perceptions and adaptation choices by location and gender, thereby enabling us to outline better strategies to adapt to the changing climate.

The role of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought and recovery

Abstract: We exploit the multi-model ensemble produced by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to synthesize current understanding of external forcing of Sahel rainfall change, past and future, through the lens of oceanic influence. The CMIP5 multi-model mean simulates the twentieth century evolution of Sahel rainfall, including the mid-century decline toward the driest years in the early 1980s and the partial recovery since. We exploit a physical argument linking anthropogenic emissions to the change in the temperature of the sub-tropical North Atlantic Ocean relative to the global tropical oceans to demonstrate indirect attribution of late twentieth century Sahel drought to the unique combination of aerosols and greenhouse gases that characterized the post-World War II period. The subsequent reduction in aerosol emissions around the North Atlantic that resulted from environmental legislation to curb acid rain, occurring as global tropical warming continued unabated, is consistent with the current partial recovery and with projections of future wetting. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) applied to the above-mentioned sea surface temperature (SST) indices provides a succinct description of oceanic influence on Sahel rainfall and reveals the near-orthogonality in the influence of emissions between twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the independent effects of aerosols and greenhouse gases project on the difference of SST indices and explain past variation, while the dominance of greenhouse gases projects on their sum and explains future projection. This result challenges the assumption that because anthropogenic warming had a hand in past Sahel drought, continued warming will result in further drying. In fact, the twenty-first century dominance of greenhouse gases, unchallenged by aerosols, results in projections consistent with warming-induced strengthening of the monsoon, a response that has gained in coherence in CMIP5 compared to prior multi-model exercises.

Decision support platforms for climate change adaptation: an overview and introduction

Abstract: The research literature on climate change adaptation has increased strongly in recent years, (Haunschild et al. 2016). Burkett et al. (2014) recorded 4239 publications in five languages containing the search terms “climate change” and “adaptation” in the title, abstract or keywords in the decade 2001–2010 compared with 20 in the decade 1981–1990. Despite this growth in research output, it remains the case that adaptation is essentially a practical activity, carried out in response to or in anticipation of the impacts of climate change (Tompkins et al. 2010; Corfee-Morlot et al. 2011), or in response to policy and investment requirements (EEA 2013;TCFD 2017).

Contrasting the responses of extreme precipitation to changes in surface air and dew point temperatures

Abstract: The Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship is a thermodynamic relationship between saturation vapor pressure and temperature. Based on the C–C relationship, the scaling of extreme precipitation with respect to surface air temperature (i.e., extreme precipitation scaling) has been widely believed to quantify the sensitivity of these extremes to global surface warming under climate change. However, the extreme precipitation scaling rate in the observations produces counter-intuitive results, particularly in the tropics (i.e., strong negative scaling in the tropical land) possibly associated with limitations in moisture availability under the high-temperature bands. The trends in extreme precipitation based on station data are mixed with decreases in most of the tropics and subtropics and increases in most of the USA, western Europe, Australia, and a large portion of Asia. To try to reconcile these results, we examine the extreme precipitation scaling using dew point temperature and extreme precipitation and compare these results with those obtained from surface air temperature and extreme precipitation using station-based data, reanalysis data, and climate model simulations. We find that this mix of increases and decreases in the trends of extreme precipitation across the planet is more similar to the changes in surface dew point temperature rather than the actual temperature across the station-based data, reanalysis data, and the historical experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5). These findings suggest that dew point temperature is a better and more realistic metric for the responses of extreme precipitation to temperature increases. Therefore, the risk of having extreme precipitation is higher than what was obtained using surface air temperature, particularly in the tropics and subtropics (e.g., South Asia), areas of the world characterized by extremely high population density and severe poverty.

Anomalous Anglophones? Contours of free market ideology, political polarization, and climate change attitudes in English-speaking countries, Western European and post-Communist states

Abstract: Recent scholarship has thoroughly documented climate change attitudes within the majority of the English-speaking countries of the USA, the UK, Canada, and Australia. In these nations, political identity is widely recognized as a uniquely powerful predictor of climate change attitudes and, at least in the USA, several studies have found that education moderates the effect of political identity. The cross-national dynamics of climate change attitudes and political identity are not well-characterized, particularly in nations with a history of state socialism. In this manuscript, we consider the role of political and free market ideological polarization around climate change within Anglophone, Western European, and post-Communist states. Further, we investigate education as a moderator of political and ideological factors cross-nationally. We suggest that, in comparison to Western European and post-Communist states, the role of political and ideological polarization in Anglophone states is exceptional in shaping climate change attitudes. Using data for 20 countries in the 2010 ISSP Environmental Module, we find that the effect of party affiliation and free market ideology on the perception of climate change’s danger and importance is strongest in Anglophone states, more modest in Western European countries, and limited within post-Communist states. Further, education moderates most intensely in Anglophone states. Our results suggest that there is something exceptional occurring within Anglophone states with regard to political polarization and climate change attitudes.

Climate change communicators’ carbon footprints affect their audience’s policy support

Abstract: Global warming is caused mainly by CO2 emission from burning fossil fuels and is beginning to have large negative impacts on human well-being and ecosystems (IPCC 2014; IPCC 2018). Policies that mitigate CO2 emissions will require public support. Here, we examine how support for several possible decarbonization policies varies as a function of the personal carbon footprint of a researcher who advocates the policy. We find that people are more likely to support policies if the advocate for these policies has a low carbon footprint. Replicating our prior work, we find that the communicators’ carbon footprint massively affect their credibility and intentions of their audience to conserve energy (Attari, Krantz and Weber 2016). Our new finding is that their carbon footprint also affects audience support for public policies advocated by the communicator. In a second study, we show that the negative effects of a large carbon footprint on credibility are greatly reduced if the communicator reforms their behavior by reducing their personal carbon footprints. The implications of these results are stark: effective communication of climate science and advocacy of both individual behavior change and public policy interventions are greatly helped when advocates lead the way by reducing their own carbon footprint.