Annual Energy Outlook

https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/DJEnPolicyPt2.pdf

Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part II: Reliability, system and transmission costs, and policies

[1] The goal of this study is to quantify the world's wind power potential for the first time from data. Wind speeds are calculated at 80 m, the hub height of modern, 77-m diameter, 1500 kW turbines. Since relatively few observations are available at 80 m, the Least Square extrapolation technique is utilized and revised here to obtain estimates of wind speeds at 80 m given observed wind speeds at 10 m (widely available) and a network of sounding stations. Tower data from the Kennedy Space Center (Florida) were used to validate the results. Globally, ∼13% of all reporting stations experience annual mean wind speeds ≥ 6.9 m/s at 80 m (i.e., wind power class 3 or greater) and can therefore be considered suitable for low-cost wind power generation. This estimate is believed to be conservative. Of all continents, North America has the largest number of stations in class ≥ 3 (453), and Antarctica has the largest percent (60%). Areas with great potential are found in northern Europe along the North Sea, the southern tip of the South American continent, the island of Tasmania in Australia, the Great Lakes region, and the northeastern and northwestern coasts of North America. The global average 10-m wind speed over the ocean from measurements is 6.64 m/s (class 6); that over land is 3.28 m/s (class 1). The calculated 80-m values are 8.60 m/s (class 6) and 4.54 m/s (class 1) over ocean and land, respectively. Over land, daytime 80-m wind speed averages obtained from soundings (4.96 m/s) are slightly larger than nighttime ones (4.85 m/s); nighttime wind speeds increase, on average, above daytime speeds above 120 m. Assuming that statistics generated from all stations analyzed here are representative of the global distribution of winds, global wind power generated at locations with mean annual wind speeds ≥ 6.9 m/s at 80 m is found to be ∼72 TW (∼54,000 Mtoe) for the year 2000. Even if only ∼20% of this power could be captured, it could satisfy 100% of the world's energy demand for all purposes (6995–10177 Mtoe) and over seven times the world's electricity needs (1.6–1.8 TW). Several practical barriers need to be overcome to fully realize this potential.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2004JD005462

Evaluation of global wind power

ライブラリー Annual Energy Outlook 2000

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies. Achieving sustainable development goals while meeting the 1.5 °C climate target requires radical changes to how we use energy. A scenario of low energy demand shows how this can be done by down-sizing the global energy system to enable feasible deployment rates of renewable energy resources.

/pdf/a-low-energy-demand-scenario-for-meeting-the-1-5-c-target-35k0hvkqdp.pdf

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °c target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

This report presents the state-level results of a spatial analysis effort calculating energy technical potential, reported in square kilometers of available land, megawatts of capacity, and gigawatt-hours of generation, for six different renewable technologies. For this analysis, the system specific power density (or equivalent), efficiency (capacity factor), and land-use constraints were identified for each technology using independent research, published research, and professional contacts. This report also presents technical potential findings from previous reports.

/pdf/u-s-renewable-energy-technical-potentials-a-gis-based-4vo9u11r3t.pdf

U.S. Renewable Energy Technical Potentials: A GIS-Based Analysis

The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) is a deterministic optimization model of the deployment of electric power generation technologies and transmission infrastructure throughout the contiguous United States into the future. The model, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Strategic Energy Analysis Center, is designed to analyze the critical energy issues in the electric sector, especially with respect to potential energy policies, such as clean energy and renewable energy standards or carbon restrictions. ReEDS provides a detailed treatment of electricity-generating and electrical storage technologies and specifically addresses a variety of issues related to renewable energy technologies, including accessibility and cost of transmission, regional quality of renewable resources, seasonal and diurnal generation profiles, variability of wind and solar power, and the influence of variability on the reliability of the electrical grid. ReEDS addresses these issues through a highly discretized regional structure, explicit statistical treatment of the variability in wind and solar output over time, and consideration of ancillary services' requirements and costs.

/pdf/regional-energy-deployment-system-reeds-1oxhgky4fc.pdf

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. This report summarizes the offshore wind resource potential, based on map estimates, for the contiguous United States and Hawaii, as of May 2009. The development of this assessment has evolved over multiple stages as new regional meso-scale assessments became available, new validation data were obtained, and better modeling capabilities were implemented. It is expected that further updates to the current assessment will be made in future reports. Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source, especially for coastal energy loads with limited access to interstate grid transmission. The definition of the magnitude and distribution of this resource required the development of a standard and flexible database. Developed using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, the database includes offshore wind resource characteristics such as wind speed, water depth, and distance from shore. It combines the resource characteristics with state administrative areas and quantifies the resource for several scenarios. In the future, the database may be expanded to include other important characteristics such as wave power density, extreme wind and wave, ocean currents, and a number of other parameters important to the design of offshore wind turbines. The primary method used to present the offshore wind resource data are maps that categorize the resource by annual average wind speed at 90 meters (m) above the surface. The resource maps extend from the shoreline out to 50 nautical miles (nm) offshore. Exceptions to the 50 nm mapped distance are the Great Lakes that were mapped in their entirety for the offshore resource and Massachusetts, where the computed resource did not extend 50 nm from the edge of …

/pdf/assessment-of-offshore-wind-energy-resources-for-the-united-2a176dprg8.pdf

Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources for the United States

The transformation of southern California's residential photovoltaics market through third-party ownership

This study identifies several marginal land categories suitable for renewable energy development, representing about 11% of U.S. mainland. The authors define marginal lands as areas with inherent disadvantages or lands that have been marginalized by natural and/or artificial forces. These lands are generally underused, difficult to cultivate, have low economic value, and varied developmental potential. The study finds that a significant potential exists for renewable energy development on these lands. Technologies assessed include utility-scale photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP), wind, hydrothermal geothermal, mini-hydro systems (low head/low power), biomass power, and landfill gas-to-energy. Solar technologies present the highest opportunity, followed by wind and biomass power. It is estimated that about 4.5 PWh of electricity could be produced from PV on marginal lands in the conterminous United States, 4 PWh from CSP, 2.7 PWh from wind, 1.9 PWh from biomass, 11 TWh from mini-hydropower systems, 8.8 TWh from hydrothermal geothermal, and 7.3 TWh from landfill gas. While it is possible for some technologies to be co-located, it is more likely that only one will be deployed in a given area. Thus, it is most reasonable to view the potential for different technologies separately.

Donna Heimiller

Papers

U.S. Renewable Energy Technical Potentials: A GIS-Based Analysis

Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources for the United States

The transformation of southern California's residential photovoltaics market through third-party ownership

Renewable energy potential on marginal lands in the United States