Time series analysis and its applications

Biological stability of drinking water refers to the concept of providing consumers with drinking water of same microbial quality at the tap as produced at the water treatment facility. However, uncontrolled growth of bacteria can occur during distribution in water mains and premise plumbing, and can lead to hygienic (e.g., development of opportunistic pathogens), aesthetic (e.g., deterioration of taste, odor, color) or operational (e.g., fouling or biocorrosion of pipes) problems. Drinking water contains diverse microorganisms competing for limited available nutrients for growth. Bacterial growth and interactions are regulated by factors, such as (i) type and concentration of available organic and inorganic nutrients, (ii) type and concentration of residual disinfectant, (iii) presence of predators, such as protozoa and invertebrates, (iv) environmental conditions, such as water temperature, and (v) spatial location of microorganisms (bulk water, sediment, or biofilm). Water treatment and distribution conditions in water mains and premise plumbing affect each of these factors and shape bacterial community characteristics (abundance, composition, viability) in distribution systems. Improved understanding of bacterial interactions in distribution systems and of environmental conditions impact is needed for better control of bacterial communities during drinking water production and distribution. This article reviews (i) existing knowledge on biological stability controlling factors and (ii) how these factors are affected by drinking water production and distribution conditions. In addition, (iii) the concept of biological stability is discussed in light of experience with well-established and new analytical methods, enabling high throughput analysis and in-depth characterization of bacterial communities in drinking water. We discussed, how knowledge gained from novel techniques will improve design and monitoring of water treatment and distribution systems in order to maintain good drinking water microbial quality up to consumer’s tap. A new definition and methodological approach for biological stability is proposed.

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Biological Stability of Drinking Water: Controlling Factors, Methods, and Challenges

A water demand end-use model was developed to predict water demand patterns with a small time scale (1 s) and small spatial scale (residence level). The end-use model is based on statistical inform...

Simulating Residential Water Demand with a Stochastic End-Use Model

Over the last two decades, water smart metering programs have been launched in a number of medium to large cities worldwide to nearly continuously monitor water consumption at the single household level. The availability of data at such very high spatial and temporal resolution advanced the ability in characterizing, modeling, and, ultimately, designing user-oriented residential water demand management strategies. Research to date has been focusing on one or more of these aspects but with limited integration between the specialized methodologies developed so far. This manuscript is the first comprehensive review of the literature in this quickly evolving water research domain. The paper contributes a general framework for the classification of residential water demand modeling studies, which allows revising consolidated approaches, describing emerging trends, and identifying potential future developments. In particular, the future challenges posed by growing population demands, constrained sources of water supply and climate change impacts are expected to require more and more integrated procedures for effectively supporting residential water demand modeling and management in several countries across the world. We review high resolution residential water demand modeling studies.We provide a classification of existing technologies and methodologies.We identify current trends, challenges and opportunities for future development.

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Benefits and challenges of using smart meters for advancing residential water demand modeling and management

Potential impacts of changing supply-water quality on drinking water distribution: A review

Today, there is a growing interest in network water quality modelling. The water quality issues of interest relate to both dissolved and particulate substances. For dissolved substances the main interest is in residual chlorine and (microbiological) contaminant propagation; for particulate substances it is in sediment leading to discolouration. There is a strong influence of flows and velocities on transport, mixing, production and decay of these substances in the network. This imposes a different approach to demand modelling which is reviewed in this article. For the large diameter lines that comprise the transport portion of a typical municipal pipe system, a skeletonised network model with a top-down approach of demand pattern allocation, a hydraulic time step of 1 h, and a pure advection-reaction water quality model will usually suffice. For the smaller diameter lines that comprise the distribution portion of a municipal pipe system, an all-pipes network model with a bottom-up approach of demand pattern allocation, a hydraulic time step of 1 min or less, and a water quality model that considers dispersion and transients may be needed. Demand models that provide stochastic residential demands per individual home and on a one-second time scale are available. A stochastic demands based network water quality model needs to be developed and validated with field measurements. Such a model will be probabilistic in nature and will offer a new perspective for assessing water quality in the drinking water distribution system.

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Importance of demand modelling in network water quality models: a review

Resuspension of accumulated particles in residential networks is the main cause for customers to complain to the water company about the water quality. Preventing the particles from accumulating in these networks can be achieved by high velocities in pipes. Adding this velocity criterion to the conventional design criteria leads to a branched lay out of distribution networks, that perform better with respect to water quality, continuity of supply and investment costs. In close cooperation with fire brigades the conventional fire flow requirements were challenged. Based on modern building codes, it proved possible to reduce the capacity of fire-hydrants to 8.3 l/s (30 m 3 /h) in newly built areas. Six years after the introduction of the velocity criterion the characteristics of the newly laid networks have changed resulting in smaller diameter pipes and reduced length of networks. The amount of 100/110 mm pipes have dropped from 55% of the total length to 45% of total length. The total investment costs for new networks have dropped by 20% in the Netherlands.

Velocity-based self-cleaning residential drinking water distribution systems

In the water distribution network water quality process take place influenced by de flow velocity and residence time of the water in the network. In order to understand how the water quality changes in the water distribution network, a good understanding of hydraulics is required. Specifically in the periphery of the network, where customers are connected, the hydraulics can change rapidly. During the night time the water is almost stagnant and the residence time increases. In the morning, when everybody gets up and flushes the toilet and takes a shower, high flow velocities can occur. During the remainder of the day flow velocities are low. The stochastic model SIMDEUM was developed to simulate water use in small time scales (1 s) and small spatial scales (per fixture). The model SIMDEUM and its applications in several hydraulic and water quality models in water distribution networks were tested against measurements within these networks. SIMDEUM enables a good model of flow velocities, residence times and the connected water quality processes in the water distribution network.

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Stochastic water demand modelling for a better understanding of hydraulics in water distribution networks

An “all pipes” hydraulic model of a DMA-sized drinking water distribution system was onstructed with two types of demand allocations. One is constructed with the conventional op-down approach, i.e. a demand multiplier pattern from the booster station is llocated to all demand nodes with a correction factor to account for the average water emand on that node. The other is constructed with a bottom-up approach of demand allocation, i.e., each individual home is represented by one demand node with its own tochastic water demand pattern. The stochastic water demand patterns are constructed with an end-use model on per second basis and per individual home. The flow entering the test area was easured and a tracer test with sodium hloride was performed to measure travel imes. The two models were evaluated on the predicted sum of demands and travel times, compared with what was measured in the test area. The new bottom-up approach performs at least as well as the conventional top down approach with respect to total demand and travel times, without the need for any flow measurements or calibration measurements. The bottom-up approach leads to a stochastic method of hydraulic modelling and gives insight into the variability of travel times as an added feature beyond the conventional way of modelling.

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E.J.M. Blokker

Papers

Simulating Residential Water Demand with a Stochastic End-Use Model

Importance of demand modelling in network water quality models: a review

Velocity-based self-cleaning residential drinking water distribution systems

Stochastic water demand modelling for a better understanding of hydraulics in water distribution networks

A bottom-up approach of stochastic demand allocation in water quality modelling