Edward M. Hill

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used epidemiological data from the UK together with estimates of vaccine efficacy to predict the possible long-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 under the planned vaccine rollout.

TL;DR: In this paper, the optimal targeting of vaccination within the UK, with the aim of minimising future deaths or quality adjusted life year (QALY) losses, is investigated, and it is shown that targeting older age groups first is optimal and may be sufficient to stem the epidemic if the vaccine prevents transmission as well as disease.

TL;DR: It is shown that, for a range of assumptions on the action and efficacy of the vaccine, targeting older age groups first is optimal and can avoid a second wave if the vaccine prevents transmission as well as disease.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a deterministic, age-structured transmission model that uses real-time data on confirmed cases requiring hospital care and mortality to provide up-to-date predictions on epidemic spread in ten regions of the UK.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors use three mathematical models: a parsimonious deterministic model with homogeneous mixing; an age-structured model; and a stochastic importation model to investigate the effect of potential variants of concern (VOCs).