Understanding hydrological effects of ecological restoration (ER) is fundamental to develop effective measures guiding future ER and to adapt climate change in China's Loess Plateau (LP). Streamflow (Q) is an important indicator of hydrological processes that represents the combined effects of climatic and land surface conditions. Here 14 catchments located in the LP were chosen to explore the Q response to different driving factors during the period 1961-2009 by using elasticity and decomposition methods based on the Budyko framework. Our results show that (1) annual Q exhibited a decreasing trend in all catchments (-0.30 similar to -1.71 mm yr(-2)), with an average reduction of -0.87 mm yr(-2). The runoff coefficients in flood season and nonflood season were both decreasing between two periods divided by the changing point in annual Q series; (2) the precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (E-0) elasticity of Q are 2.75 and -1.75, respectively, indicating that Q is more sensitive to changes in P than that in E-0; (3) the two methods consistently demonstrated that, on average, ER (62%) contributing to Q reduction was much larger than that of climate change (38%). In addition, parameter n that entails catchment characteristics in the Budyko framework showed positive correlation with the relative area of ER measures in all catchments (eight of them are statistically significant with p< 0.05). These findings highlight the importance of ER measures on modifying the hydrological partitioning in the region. However, ER actions over the sloping parts of the landscape weakened the impact of those in channels (i.e., check-dams) on Q, especially after the implementation of the Grain-for-Green project in 1999.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2014WR016589

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and ecological restoration on streamflow changes based on a Budyko hydrological model in China's Loess Plateau

Distinguishing the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on variation of streamflow in the Poyang Lake catchment, China

Quantifying the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin, China

Attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for detecting the dominant cause of runoff decline in Haihe basin

Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical assumptions

Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro-climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from −0.859 (Chaohe River) to −1.996 mm a−1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre-change period and post-change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro-climatic data during the pre-change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin, China

Spatiotemporal changes in climatic extremes in the Yellow River Basin from 1959 to 2008 were investigated on the basis of a suite of 27 climatic indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data from 75 meteorological stations with the help of the Mann–Kendall test, linear regression method and GIS technique. Furthermore, the changes in the probability distribution of the extreme indices were examined. The results indicate: (1) The whole basin is dominated by significant increase in the frequency of warm days and warm nights, and dominated by significant decrease in the frequency of cold days and cold nights. Although trends in absolute temperature indices show less spatial coherence compared with that in the percentile-based temperature indices, overall increasing trends can be found in Max Tmax (TXx), Min Tmax (TXn), Max Tmin (TNx) and Min Tmin (TNn). (2) Although the spatial patterns and the number of stations with significant changes for threshold and duration temperature indices are also not identical, general positive trends in warm indices (i.e., summer days (SU25), tropical nights (TR20), warm spell duration indicator and growing season length) and negative trends in cold indices (i.e., frost days, ice days and cold spell duration indicator) can be found in the basin. Annual nighttime temperature has increased at a faster rate than that in daytime temperature, leading to obvious decrease in diurnal temperature range. (3) The changes in precipitation indices are much weaker and less spatially coherent compared with these of temperature indices. For all precipitation indices, only few stations are characterized by significantly change in extreme precipitation, and their spatial patterns are always characterized by irregular and insignificant positive and negative changes. However, generally, changes in precipitation extremes present drying trends, although most of the changes are insignificant. (4) Results at seasonal scale show that warming trends occur for all seasons, particularly in winter. Different from that in other three seasons, general positive trends in max 1-day precipitation (Rx1DAY) and max 5-day precipitation (Rx5DAY) are found in winter. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of indices for 1959–1983 and 1984–2008 indicate a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and a less pronounced tendency toward drier condition during the past decades. The results can provide beneficial reference to water resource and eco-environment management strategies in the Yellow River Basin for associated policymakers and stakeholders.

Fengchao Sun

Papers

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin, China

Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yellow River Basin, China

Changes of Rice Water Demand and Irrigation Water Requirement in Southeast China under Future Climate change