Despite its extreme importance and years of effort, practical short-term earthquake prediction still remains to be seen. However, research in earthquake-related electromagnetic phenomena have recently shown that such phenomena make for a promising candidate for short-term earthquake prediction. There is a good deal of accumulated evidence of precursory signatures in a wide frequency range (DC-VHF). ULF geomagnetic change is one of the most promising phenomena and it suggests that short-term prediction is realizable. This report first reviews earlier observational facts and presents the latest results in detection of ULF emissions by means of sophisticated signal processing. Finally, we discuss the possible generation and propagation mechanism of earthquake-related ULF signals.

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ULF Geomagnetic Changes Associated with Large Earthquakes

. The analysis of surface latent heat flux (SLHF) from the epicentral regions of five recent earthquakes that occurred in close proximity to the oceans has been found to show anomalous behavior. The maximum increase of SLHF is found 2–7 days prior to the main earthquake event. This increase is likely due to an ocean-land-atmosphere interaction. The increase of SLHF prior to the main earthquake event is attributed to the increase in infrared thermal (IR) temperature in the epicentral and surrounding region. The anomalous increase in SLHF shows great potential in providing early warning of a disastrous earthquake, provided that there is a better understanding of the background noise due to the tides and monsoon in surface latent heat flux. Efforts have been made to understand the level of background noise in the epicentral regions of the five earthquakes considered in the present paper. A comparison of SLHF from the epicentral regions over the coastal earthquakes and the earthquakes that occurred far away from the coast has been made and it has been found that the anomalous behavior of SLHF prior to the main earthquake event is only associated with the coastal earthquakes.

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Surface latent heat flux as an earthquake precursor

. We present a general concept of mechanisms of preseismic phenomena in the atmosphere and ionosphere. After short review of observational results we conclude: 1. Upward migration of fluid substrate matter (bubble) can lead to ousting of the hot water/gas near the ground surface and cause an earthquake (EQ) itself in the strength-weakened area; 2. Thus, time and place of the bubble appearance could be random values, but EQ, geochemistry anomaly and foreshocks (seismic, SA and ULF electromagnetic ones) are casually connected; 3. Atmospheric perturbation of temperature and density could follow preseismic hot water/gas release resulting in generation of atmospheric gravity waves (AGW) with periods in a range of 6–60min; 4. Seismo-induced AGW could lead to modification of the ionospheric turbulence and to the change of over-horizon radio-wave propagation in the atmosphere, perturbation of LF waves in the lower ionosphere and ULF emission depression at the ground.

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Lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling as governing mechanism for preseismic short-term events in atmosphere and ionosphere

The analysis of the VLF signals radiated by ground transmitters and received on board of the French DEMETER satellite, reveals a drop of the signals (scattering spot) connected with the occurrence of large earthquakes. The extension of the "scattering spots" zone is large enough (1000–5000 km) and, probably, it increases with the magnitude of the "relative" earthquake. A possible model to explain the phenomenology, based on the acoustic gravity waves and the ionosphere turbulence, is proposed. The method of diagnostics applied to this study has the advantage to be a global one due to the world wide location of the powerful VLF transmitters and of the satellite reception. However, a specific disadvantage exists because the method requires rather a long time period of analysis due to the large longitudinal displacements among the successive satellite orbits. At the moment, at least, one month seems to be necessary.

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Global diagnostics of the ionospheric perturbations related to the seismic activity using the VLF radio signals collected on the DEMETER satellite

Short-term (timescale of hours, days and weeks) earthquake (EQ) prediction is of essential importance to mitigate EQ disasters. Short-term EQ prediction has so far been based on seismic measurement...

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/19475705.2010.486933

Current status of seismo-electromagnetics for short-term earthquake prediction

. Some results of ULF magnetic field observation at Karimshino site (Kamchatka, Russia) since June 2000 to September 2001 are presented here. Using case study we have found an effect of suppression of ULF intensity about 2–6 days before rather strong and nearby seismic shocks (magnitude M = 4.0 – 6.2). It is revealed for nighttime and horizontal component of ULF field (G) in the frequency range 0.01 – 0.1 Hz. Then we prove the reliability of the effect by computed correlation between G (or 1/G) and specially calculated seismic indexes Ks for the whole period of observation. Basing on the simple criteria we conclude that reliability of seismo-associated ULF suppression effect is comparable with well-known effect of connection between ULF variation and Kp index of global magnetic activity. It seems the reason of suppression is located at the atmosphere or ionosphere but not in the ground medium.

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Preseismic ULF electromagnetic effect from observation at Kamchatka

This paper is devoted to a method of short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction in Kamchatka, Russia. Properties of low-frequency magnetic fields are the basics of the method, and we used two seismo-electromagnetic phenomena in the EQ prediction: 1. seismo-ionospheric depression in the frequency range of 0.01–0.1 Hz (ULF depression), 2. seismo-atmospheric radiation in the frequency range of 1–30 Hz (ULF/ELF radiation). It is now generally accepted that gas eruption before an EQ causes these ULF/ELF phenomena. We propose a hypothesis that gas emanates from the area in the bottom of Kuril–Kamchatka or Aleutian trenches closest to the epicenter of a forthcoming EQ. The three parameters of an EQ are (i) when (time), (ii) where (position) a next EQ is coming with (iii) how big (magnitude) in the short-term EQ prediction. Position of the source of atmospheric radiation gives an estimate of the epicenter location. Then, we estimate the local magnitude in consequence of its statistical dependence on ULF depression and epicenter distance. Date of a coming EQ is determined by the statistical dependence of delays of EQs relative to the dates of their precursors. The result of application of this method to real magnetic field data is illustrated by official prediction processes during a period of March–May 2016. Limits and possible errors of the method as well as methods to enhance the reliability of the prediction are discussed.

Short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka using low-frequency magnetic fields

. Regular monitoring of some geophysical parameters in association with seismicity has been carried out since last year at the Japan-Russian Complex Geophysical Observatory in the Kamchatka region. This observatory was organized in connection with the ISTC project in Russia and was motivated by the results of the FRONTIER/RIKEN and FRONTIER/NASDA research projects in Japan. The main purpose of the observations is to investigate the electromagnetic and acoustic phenomena induced by the lithosphere processes (especially by seismic activity). The seismicity of the Kamchatka area is analyzed and a description of the observatory equipment is presented. At present, the activity of the observatory includes the seismic (frequency range ∆F = 0.5 – 40 Hz) and meteorological recordings, together with seismo-acoustic (∆F = 30 – 1000 Hz) and electromagnetic observations: three-component magnetic ULF variations ( ∆F = 0.003 – 30 Hz), three-component electric potential variations ( ∆F 1.0 Hz), and VLF transmitter’s signal perturbations ( ∆F ~ 10 – 40 kHz).

/pdf/geophysical-observatory-in-kamchatka-region-for-monitoring-1oozcji3vl.pdf

G. Belyaev

Papers

Preseismic ULF electromagnetic effect from observation at Kamchatka

Short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka using low-frequency magnetic fields

Geophysical Observatory in Kamchatka region for monitoring of phenomena connected with seismic activity

Russian-Japanese complex geophysical observatory in Kamchatka for monitoring of phenomena connected with seismic activity

Some preliminary results of seismo-electromagnetic research at Complex Geophysical Observatory, Kamchatka