Showing papers by "George Wright published in 1991"

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

Abstract: In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. The fourth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

The Delphi Technique: A Re-Evaluation of Research and Theory

Abstract: This paper examines the Delphi technique critically to determine whether it succeeds in alleviating the 'process loss' typical of interacting groups. After briefly reviewing the technique, we go on to consider problems with Delphi from two perspectives. First, we examine methodological and technical difficulties, and the problems these have brought about in experimental applications. We suggest that important differences exist between the typical laboratory Delphi and the original concept of Delphi. These differences, reflecting a lack of control of important group characteristics/factors (such as the relative level of panellist expertise), make comparisons between Delphi studies unrealistic, as are generalizations from laboratory studies to the ideal of Delphi. This conclusion diminishes the power of those former Delphi critiques which have largely dismissed the procedure because of the variability of laboratory study results (e.g. Sackman (45)). Second, having noted the limited usefulness of the majority of studies for answering questions on the effectiveness of Delphi, we go on to look at the technique from a theoretical/mechanical perspective. That is, by drawing upon ideas/findings from other areas of research (e.g. Hogarth (27)), we attempt to discern whether the structure of the Delphi procedure itself might reasonably be expected to function as intended. We conclude that inadequacies in the nature of feedback typically supplied in applications of Delphi tend to ensure that any small gains in the resolution of 'process loss' are offset by the removal of any opportunity for group 'process gain'. Some solutions to this dilemma are advocated, which are based on an analysis of the process of judgment change within groups and a consideration of factors which increase the validity of statistical/nominal groups over their constituent individual components.

A Reevaluation of Research and Theory

Abstract: This paper examines critically the Delphi technique to determine whether it succeeds in alleviating the “process loss” typical of interacting groups. After briefly reviewing the technique, we consider problems with Delphi from two perspectives. First, we examine methodological and technical difficulties and the problems these have brought about in experimental applications. We suggest that important differences exist between the typical laboratory Delphi and the original concept of Delphi. These differences, reflecting a lack of control of important group characteristics/factors (such as the relative level of panelist expertise), make comparisons between Delphi studies unrealistic, as are generalizations from laboratory studies to the ideal of Delphi. This conclusion diminishes the power of those former Delphi critiques that have largely dismissed the procedure because ofthe variability of laboratory study results. Second, having noted the limited usefulness of the majority of studies for answering questions on the effectiveness of Delphi, we look at the technique from a theoretical/mechanical perspective. That is, by drawing upon ideas/findings from other areas of research, we attempt to discern whether the structure of the Delphi procedure itself might reasonably be expected to function as intended. We conclude that inadequacies in the nature of feedback typically supplied in applications of Delphi tend to ensure that any small gains in the resolution of “process loss” are offset by the removal of any opportunity for group “process gain.” Some solutions to this dilemma are advocated; they are based on an analysis of the process of judgment change within groups and a consideration of factors that increase the validity of statistical/nominal groups over their constituent individual components. The Impetus for a New Approach to Aggregating Judgments The group committee meeting is a common strategy for the resolution of differences and the advocation of refined opinion-whether that opinion be related to the forecasting of future events, the estimation of current status, or the expression of present intentions or decisions. Underlying this process is the expectation that ‘?I + 1” heads will be better than one [l] and that the potential sum of useful information available to the group will be at least as great as, and more usually greater than, that of any particular individual within that set. Lock has further noted that groups may serve to enhance individual commitment, help in resolving ambiguous and conflicting knowledge, and facilitate creativity along with a watchfulness for errors [2]. Consequently, combining individual judgments may lead to “process gain” [3, 41, where groups may perform better than their best member.