G
Gerhard K. Heilig
Researcher at United Nations
Publications - 9
Citations - 2203
Gerhard K. Heilig is an academic researcher from United Nations. The author has contributed to research in topics: Population & Total fertility rate. The author has an hindex of 7, co-authored 9 publications receiving 1996 citations.
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Journal ArticleDOI
World population stabilization unlikely this century
Patrick Gerland,Adrian E. Raftery,Hana Ševčíková,Nan Li,Danan Gu,Thomas Spoorenberg,Leontine Alkema,Bailey K. Fosdick,Jennifer Chunn,Nevena Lalic,Guiomar Bay,Thomas Buettner,Gerhard K. Heilig,John R. Wilmoth +13 more
TL;DR: World population is likely to continue growing for the rest of the century, with at least a 3.5-fold increase in the population of Africa and the ratio of working-age people to older people is almost certain to decline substantially in all countries, not just currently developed ones.
Journal ArticleDOI
Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries
TL;DR: The results suggest that the current United Nations high and low variants greatly underestimate uncertainty about the number of oldest old from about 2050 and that they underestimate uncertainty for high fertility countries and overstate uncertainty for countries that have completed the demographic transition.
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Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries.
Leontine Alkema,Adrian E. Raftery,Patrick Gerland,Samuel J. Clark,Samuel J. Clark,François Pelletier,Thomas Buettner,Gerhard K. Heilig +7 more
TL;DR: A Bayesian projection model is described to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries using an autoregressive model, in which long-term TFR projections converge toward and oscillate around replacement level.
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Has the HIV epidemic peaked
TL;DR: The main finding of this analysis is that the HIV epidemic reached a major turning point over the past decade and the absolute number of infected individuals is expected to keep growing slowly in sub-Saharan Africa and to remain near current levels worldwide, thus posing a continuing challenge to public health programs.