Summary. We consider the problem of comparing complex hierarchical models in which the number of parameters is not clearly defined. Using an information theoretic argument we derive a measure pD for the effective number of parameters in a model as the difference between the posterior mean of the deviance and the deviance at the posterior means of the parameters of interest. In general pD approximately corresponds to the trace of the product of Fisher's information and the posterior covariance, which in normal models is the trace of the ‘hat’ matrix projecting observations onto fitted values. Its properties in exponential families are explored. The posterior mean deviance is suggested as a Bayesian measure of fit or adequacy, and the contributions of individual observations to the fit and complexity can give rise to a diagnostic plot of deviance residuals against leverages. Adding pD to the posterior mean deviance gives a deviance information criterion for comparing models, which is related to other information criteria and has an approximate decision theoretic justification. The procedure is illustrated in some examples, and comparisons are drawn with alternative Bayesian and classical proposals. Throughout it is emphasized that the quantities required are trivial to compute in a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis.

/pdf/bayesian-measures-of-model-complexity-and-fit-1ouzmtfu7x.pdf

Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit

Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

The modern science of networks has brought significant advances to our understanding of complex systems. One of the most relevant features of graphs representing real systems is community structure, or clustering, i. e. the organization of vertices in clusters, with many edges joining vertices of the same cluster and comparatively few edges joining vertices of different clusters. Such clusters, or communities, can be considered as fairly independent compartments of a graph, playing a similar role like, e. g., the tissues or the organs in the human body. Detecting communities is of great importance in sociology, biology and computer science, disciplines where systems are often represented as graphs. This problem is very hard and not yet satisfactorily solved, despite the huge effort of a large interdisciplinary community of scientists working on it over the past few years. We will attempt a thorough exposition of the topic, from the definition of the main elements of the problem, to the presentation of most methods developed, with a special focus on techniques designed by statistical physicists, from the discussion of crucial issues like the significance of clustering and how methods should be tested and compared against each other, to the description of applications to real networks.

/pdf/community-detection-in-graphs-34rogm3r6p.pdf

Community detection in graphs

Mixture modeling is a widely applied data analysis technique used to identify unobserved heterogeneity in a population. Despite mixture models' usefulness in practice, one unresolved issue in the application of mixture models is that there is not one commonly accepted statistical indicator for deciding on the number of classes in a study population. This article presents the results of a simulation study that examines the performance of likelihood-based tests and the traditionally used Information Criterion (ICs) used for determining the number of classes in mixture modeling. We look at the performance of these tests and indexes for 3 types of mixture models: latent class analysis (LCA), a factor mixture model (FMA), and a growth mixture models (GMM). We evaluate the ability of the tests and indexes to correctly identify the number of classes at three different sample sizes (n = 200, 500, 1,000). Whereas the Bayesian Information Criterion performed the best of the ICs, the bootstrap likelihood ratio test ...

Deciding on the Number of Classes in Latent Class Analysis and Growth Mixture Modeling: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study

In this paper, we consider an entropy criterion to estimate the number of clusters arising from a mixture model. This criterion is derived from a relation linking the likelihood and the classification likelihood of a mixture. Its performance is investigated through Monte Carlo experiments, and it shows favorable results compared to other classical criteria.

/pdf/an-entropy-criterion-for-assessing-the-number-of-clusters-in-59npaowlu6.pdf

An entropy criterion for assessing the number of clusters in a mixture model

We propose an assessing method of mixture model in a cluster analysis setting with integrated completed likelihood. For this purpose, the observed data are assigned to unknown clusters using a maximum a posteriori operator. Then, the integrated completed likelihood (ICL) is approximated using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Numerical experiments on simulated and real data of the resulting ICL criterion show that it performs well both for choosing a mixture model and a relevant number of clusters. In particular, ICL appears to be more robust than BIC to violation of some of the mixture model assumptions and it can select a number of dusters leading to a sensible partitioning of the data.

Assessing a mixture model for clustering with the integrated completed likelihood

The deviance information criterion (DIC) introduced by is directly inspired by linear and generalised linear models, but it is not so naturally defined for missing data models. In this paper, we reassess the criterion for such models, testing the behaviour of various extensions in the cases of mixture and random effect models.

/pdf/deviance-information-criteria-for-missing-data-models-5gupzshaa0.pdf

Deviance information criteria for missing data models

https://hal.inria.fr/inria-00074643/document

Gaussian parsimonious clustering models

https://hal.inria.fr/inria-00075196/document

Gilles Celeux

Papers

An entropy criterion for assessing the number of clusters in a mixture model

Assessing a mixture model for clustering with the integrated completed likelihood

Deviance information criteria for missing data models

Gaussian parsimonious clustering models

A Classification EM algorithm for clustering and two stochastic versions