Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.

A Survey on Causal Inference

Video grounding aims to localize a moment from an untrimmed video for a given textual query. Existing approaches focus more on the alignment of visual and language stimuli with various likelihood-based matching or regression strategies, i.e., P(Y |X). Consequently, these models may suffer from spurious correlations between the language and video features due to the selection bias of the dataset. 1) To uncover the causality behind the model and data, we first propose a novel paradigm from the perspective of the causal inference, i.e., interventional video grounding (IVG) that leverages backdoor adjustment to deconfound the selection bias based on structured causal model (SCM) and do-calculus P(Y |do(X)). Then, we present a simple yet effective method to approximate the unobserved confounder as it cannot be directly sampled from the dataset. 2) Meanwhile, we introduce a dual contrastive learning approach (DCL) to better align the text and video by maximizing the mutual information (MI) between query and video clips, and the MI between start/end frames of a target moment and the others within a video to learn more informative visual representations. Experiments on three standard benchmarks show the effectiveness of our approaches.

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Interventional Video Grounding with Dual Contrastive Learning

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy, and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well-known causal inference frameworks. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine, and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.

Recommender systems usually amplify the biases in the data. The model learned from historical interactions with imbalanced item distribution will amplify the imbalance by over-recommending items from the major groups. Addressing this issue is essential for a healthy ecosystem of recommendation in the long run. Existing works apply bias control to the ranking targets (e.g., calibration, fairness, and diversity), but ignore the true reason for bias amplification and trade-off the recommendation accuracy. 
In this work, we scrutinize the cause-effect factors for bias amplification, identifying the main reason lies in the confounder effect of imbalanced item distribution on user representation and prediction score. The existence of such confounder pushes us to go beyond merely modeling the conditional probability and embrace the causal modeling for recommendation. Towards this end, we propose a Deconfounded Recommender System (DecRS), which models the causal effect of user representation on the prediction score. The key to eliminating the impact of the confounder lies in backdoor adjustment, which is however difficult to do due to the infinite sample space of the confounder. For this challenge, we contribute an approximation operator for backdoor adjustment which can be easily plugged into most recommender models. Lastly, we devise an inference strategy to dynamically regulate backdoor adjustment according to user status. We instantiate DecRS on two representative models FM and NFM, and conduct extensive experiments over two benchmarks to validate the superiority of our proposed DecRS.

Deconfounded Recommendation for Alleviating Bias Amplification

Deep candidate generation (DCG) that narrows down the collection of relevant items from billions to hundreds via representation learning is essential to large-scale recommender systems. Standard approaches approximate maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) through sampling for better scalability and address the problem of DCG in a way similar to language modeling. However, live recommender systems face severe unfairness of exposure with a vocabulary several orders of magnitude larger than that of natural language, implying that (1) MLE will preserve and even exacerbate the exposure bias in the long run in order to faithfully fit the observed samples, and (2) suboptimal sampling and inadequate use of item features can lead to inferior representations for the unfairly ignored items. In this paper, we introduce CLRec, a Contrastive Learning paradigm that has been successfully deployed in a real-world massive recommender system, to alleviate exposure bias in DCG. We theoretically prove that a popular choice of contrastive loss is equivalently reducing the exposure bias via inverse propensity scoring, which provides a new perspective on the effectiveness of contrastive learning. We further employ a fixed-size queue to store the items' representations computed in previously processed batches, and use the queue to serve as an effective sampler of negative examples. This queue-based design provides great efficiency in incorporating rich features of the thousand negative items per batch thanks to computation reuse. Extensive offline analyses and four-month online A/B tests in Mobile Taobao demonstrate substantial improvement, including a dramatic reduction in the Matthew effect.

Contrastive Learning for Debiased Candidate Generation in Large-Scale Recommender Systems.

Estimating counterfactual outcome of different treatments from observational data is an important problem to assist decision making in a variety of fields. Among the various forms of treatment specification, bundle treatment has been widely adopted in many scenarios, such as recommendation systems and online marketing. The bundle treatment usually can be abstracted as a high dimensional binary vector, which makes it more challenging for researchers to remove the confounding bias in observational data. In this work, we assume the existence of low dimensional latent structure underlying bundle treatment. Via the learned latent representations of treatments, we propose a novel variational sample re-weighting (VSR) method to eliminate confounding bias by decorrelating the treatments and confounders. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate that the predictive model trained on this re-weighted dataset can achieve more accurate counterfactual outcome prediction.

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Counterfactual Prediction for Bundle Treatment

Flow-based microfluidic biochips are attracting increasing attention with successful applications in biochemical experiments, point-of-care diagnosis, etc. Existing works in design automation consider the flow-layer design and control-layer design separately, lacking a global optimization and hence resulting in degraded routability and reliability. This paper presents a novel integrated physical co-design methodology, which seamlessly integrates the flow-layer and control-layer design stages. In the flow-layer design stage, a sequence-pair-based placement method is presented, which allows for an iterative placement refinement based on routing feedbacks. In the control-layer design stage, the minimum cost flow formulation is adopted to further improve the routability. Besides that, effective placement adjustment strategies are proposed to iteratively enhance the solution quality of the overall control-layer design. Experimental results show that compared with the existing work, the proposed design flow obtains an average reduction of 40.44% in flow-channel crossings, 31.95% in total chip area, and 22.02% in total flow-channel length. Moreover, all the valves are successfully routed in the control-layer design stage.

Physical Co-Design of Flow and Control Layers for Flow-Based Microfluidic Biochips

Precisely evaluating the effect of new policies (e.g. ad-placement models, recommendation functions, ranking functions) is one of the most important problems for improving interactive systems. The conventional policy evaluation methods rely on online A/B tests, but they are usually extremely expensive and may have undesirable impacts. Recently, Inverse Propensity Score (IPS) estimators are proposed as alternatives to evaluate the effect of new policy with offline logged data that was collected from a different policy in the past. They tend to remove the distribution shift induced by past policy. However, they ignore the distribution shift that would be induced by the new policy, which results in imprecise evaluation. Moreover, their performances rely on accurate estimation of propensity score, which can not be guaranteed or validated in practice. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric method, named Focused Context Balancing (FCB) algorithm, to learn sample weights for context balancing, so that the distribution shift induced by the past policy and new policy can be eliminated respectively. To validate the effectiveness of our FCB algorithm, we conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets. The experimental results clearly demonstrate that our FCB algorithm outperforms existing estimators by achieving more precise and robust results for offline policy evaluation.

Focused Context Balancing for Robust Offline Policy Evaluation

In spite of the tremendous development of recommender system owing to the progressive capability of machine learning recently, the current recommender system is still vulnerable to the distribution shift of users and items in realistic scenarios, leading to the sharp decline of performance in testing environments. It is even more severe in many common applications where only the implicit feedback from sparse data is available. Hence, it is crucial to promote the performance stability of recommendation method in different environments. In this work, we first make a thorough analysis of implicit recommendation problem from the viewpoint of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. Then under the guidance of our theoretical analysis, we propose to incorporate the recommendation-specific DAG learner into a novel causal preference-based recommendation framework named CausPref, mainly consisting of causal learning of invariant user preference and anti-preference negative sampling to deal with implicit feedback. Extensive experimental results from real-world datasets clearly demonstrate that our approach surpasses the benchmark models significantly under types of out-of-distribution settings, and show its impressive interpretability.

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CausPref: Causal Preference Learning for Out-of-Distribution Recommendation

One fundamental problem in causal inference is treatment effect estimation in observational studies when variables are confounded. Controlling for confounding effects is generally handled by propensity score. But it treats all observed variables as confounders and ignores the adjustment variables, which have no influence on treatment but are predictive of the outcome. Recently, it has been demonstrated that the adjustment variables are effective in reducing the variance of estimated effect. However, how to automatically separate the confounders and adjustment variables is still an open problem. In this paper, we firstly propose a Data-Driven Variable Decomposition (D2VD) algorithm, which can automatically separate confounders and adjustment variables, and simultaneously estimate treatment effect. Under standard assumptions, we theoretically prove that D2VD can unbiased estimate treatment effect with lower variance. Moreover, to address the nonlinear challenges, we propose a Nonlinear-D2VD (N-D2VD) algorithm. To validate their effectiveness, we conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic and real datasets. The results demonstrate that D2VD and N-D2VD algorithm can automatically separate the variables precisely, and estimate treatment effect more accurately and with lower variance than the state-of-the-art methods. We also demonstrated that the top-ranked features by our algorithm have the best prediction performance on an online advertising dataset.

Hao Zou

Papers

Counterfactual Prediction for Bundle Treatment

Physical Co-Design of Flow and Control Layers for Flow-Based Microfluidic Biochips

Focused Context Balancing for Robust Offline Policy Evaluation

CausPref: Causal Preference Learning for Out-of-Distribution Recommendation

Data-Driven Variable Decomposition for Treatment Effect Estimation