The Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), launched in 2003 and concluded by the PUB Symposium 2012 held in Delft (23–25 October 2012), set out to shift the scientific culture of hydrology towards improved scientific understanding of hydrological processes, as well as associated uncertainties and the development of models with increasing realism and predictive power. This paper reviews the work that has been done under the six science themes of the PUB Decade and outlines the challenges ahead for the hydrological sciences community.Editor D. KoutsoyiannisCitation Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H.H.G., Bloschl, G., McDonnell, J.J., Sivapalan, M., Pomeroy, J.W., Arheimer, B., Blume, T., Clark, M.P., Ehret, U., Fenicia, F., Freer, J.E., Gelfan, A., Gupta, H.V., Hughes, D.A., Hut, R.W., Montanari, A., Pande, S., Tetzlaff, D., Troch, P.A., Uhlenbrook, S., Wagener, T., Winsemius, H.C., Woods, R.A., Zehe, E., and Cudennec, C., 2013. A d...

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A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)—a review

. SURFEX is a new externalized land and ocean surface platform that describes the surface fluxes and the evolution of four types of surfaces: nature, town, inland water and ocean. It is mostly based on pre-existing, well-validated scientific models that are continuously improved. The motivation for the building of SURFEX is to use strictly identical scientific models in a high range of applications in order to mutualise the research and development efforts. SURFEX can be run in offline mode (0-D or 2-D runs) or in coupled mode (from mesoscale models to numerical weather prediction and climate models). An assimilation mode is included for numerical weather prediction and monitoring. In addition to momentum, heat and water fluxes, SURFEX is able to simulate fluxes of carbon dioxide, chemical species, continental aerosols, sea salt and snow particles. The main principles of the organisation of the surface are described first. Then, a survey is made of the scientific module (including the coupling strategy). Finally, the main applications of the code are summarised. The validation work undertaken shows that replacing the pre-existing surface models by SURFEX in these applications is usually associated with improved skill, as the numerous scientific developments contained in this community code are used to good advantage.

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The SURFEXv7.2 land and ocean surface platform for coupled or offline simulation of earth surface variables and fluxes

. Mountains are essential sources of freshwater for our world, but their role in global water resources could well be significantly altered by climate change. How well do we understand these potential changes today, and what are implications for water resources management, climate change adaptation, and evolving water policy? To answer above questions, we have examined 11 case study regions with the goal of providing a global overview, identifying research gaps and formulating recommendations for research, management and policy. After setting the scene regarding water stress, water management capacity and scientific capacity in our case study regions, we examine the state of knowledge in water resources from a highland-lowland viewpoint, focusing on mountain areas on the one hand and the adjacent lowland areas on the other hand. Based on this review, research priorities are identified, including precipitation, snow water equivalent, soil parameters, evapotranspiration and sublimation, groundwater as well as enhanced warming and feedback mechanisms. In addition, the importance of environmental monitoring at high altitudes is highlighted. We then make recommendations how advancements in the management of mountain water resources under climate change could be achieved in the fields of research, water resources management and policy as well as through better interaction between these fields. We conclude that effective management of mountain water resources urgently requires more detailed regional studies and more reliable scenario projections, and that research on mountain water resources must become more integrative by linking relevant disciplines. In addition, the knowledge exchange between managers and researchers must be improved and oriented towards long-term continuous interaction.

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Climate change and mountain water resources: overview and recommendations for research, management and policy

. Detailed studies of snow cover processes require models that offer a fine description of the snow cover properties. The detailed snowpack model Crocus is such a scheme, and has been run operationally for avalanche forecasting over the French mountains for 20 yr. It is also used for climate or hydrological studies. To extend its potential applications, Crocus has been recently integrated within the framework of the externalized surface module SURFEX. SURFEX computes the exchanges of energy and mass between different types of surface and the atmosphere. It includes in particular the land surface scheme ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere). It allows Crocus to be run either in stand-alone mode, using a time series of forcing meteorological data or in fully coupled mode (explicit or fully implicit numerics) with atmospheric models ranging from meso-scale models to general circulation models. This approach also ensures a full coupling between the snow cover and the soil beneath. Several applications of this new simulation platform are presented. They range from a 1-D stand-alone simulation (Col de Porte, France) to fully-distributed simulations in complex terrain over a whole mountain range (Massif des Grandes Rousses, France), or in coupled mode such as a surface energy balance and boundary layer simulation over the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (Dome C).

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The detailed snowpack scheme Crocus and its implementation in SURFEX v7.2

Climate change is expected to accelerate the hydrologic cycle, increase the fraction of precipitation that is rain, and enhance snowpack melting. The enhanced hydrological cycle is also expected to increase snowfall amounts due to increased moisture availability. These processes are examined in this paper in the Colorado Headwaters region through the use of a coupled high-resolution climate–runoff model. Four high-resolution simulations of annual snowfall over Colorado are conducted. The simulations are verified using Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) data. Results are then presented regarding the grid spacing needed for appropriate simulation of snowfall. Finally, climate sensitivity is explored using a pseudo–global warming approach. The results show that the proper spatial and temporal depiction of snowfall adequate for water resource and climate change purposes can be achieved with the appropriate choice of model grid spacing and parameterizations. The pseudo–global warming simulations indicate enha...

High resolution coupled climate-runoff simulations of seasonal snowfall over Colorado: A process study of current and warmer climate

Thirty-three snowpack models of varying complexity and purpose were evaluated across a wide range of hydrometeorological and forest canopy conditions at five Northern Hemisphere locations, for up t ...

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Evaluation of forest snow processes models (SnowMIP2)

It is important to understand the response of vegetation dynamics and surface water budget to the changing climate. To investigate the effects of vegetation and climate change on evapotranspiration and runoff on a basin scale, the SSiB4T/TRIFFID (SSiB4/TRIFFID coupled with TOPMODEL) is used to perform long-term dynamic simulations of vegetation succession and the water balance under different climate scenarios for a subalpine basin. The results of all experiments show that fraction of vegetation changes from a dominance of C3 grasses to tundra shrubs and then gradually approaches equilibrium with a dominance of forests. Change to evapotranspiration is very sensitive to temperature changes but is not sensitive to precipitation changes when the temperature remains unchanged. Runoff is very sensitive to changes in both temperature and precipitation. In the increase of temperature, evapotranspiration of forests increases the most among the three vegetation types. From the control run to the [T+5, (1+40%)P] run (A temperature increase of 5 °C, an increase in precipitation of 40%), the role of forests in increasing runoff changes to a reduction in runoff.

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Use of the ssib4/triffid model coupled with topmodel to investigate the effects of vegetation and climate on evapotranspiration and runoff in a subalpine basin of southwestern china

Huiping Deng

Papers

Evaluation of forest snow processes models (SnowMIP2)

Use of the ssib4/triffid model coupled with topmodel to investigate the effects of vegetation and climate on evapotranspiration and runoff in a subalpine basin of southwestern china