There is, I think, something ethereal about i —the square root of minus one. I remember first hearing about it at school. It seemed an odd beast at that time—an intruder hovering on the edge of reality.

Usually familiarity dulls this sense of the bizarre, but in the case of i it was the reverse: over the years the sense of its surreal nature intensified. It seemed that it was impossible to write mathematics that described the real world in …

I and i

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Statistical Theory of Communication

The energy system studies include a wide range of issues from short term (e.g. real-time, hourly, daily and weekly operating decisions) to long term horizons (e.g. planning or policy making). The decision making chain is fed by input parameters which are usually subject to uncertainties. The art of dealing with uncertainties has been developed in various directions and has recently become a focal point of interest. In this paper, a new standard classification of uncertainty modeling techniques for decision making process is proposed. These methods are introduced and compared along with demonstrating their strengths and weaknesses. The promising lines of future researches are explored in the shadow of a comprehensive overview of the past and present applications. The possibility of using the novel concept of Z-numbers is introduced for the first time.

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Decision making under uncertainty in energy systems: State of the art

Photovoltaic (PV) power is volatile in nature and raises the level of uncertainty in power systems. PV power forecasting is an important measure to solve this problem. It helps to improve the reliability and reduces the generation cost. Advances in computer technology and sensors make the numeric modeling methods a hotspot in the field of PV power forecasting. However, data modeling methods strongly rely on the accuracy of measurement data. Unavoidable outliers in the measured meteorological data have an adverse effect on the model due to their heteroscedasticity. Although many studies can be found focusing on outlier detection, only a few have incorporated outlier detection with regression models. In this study, an innovative method employing the weighted Gaussian process regression approach is proposed, such that data samples with higher outlier potential have a low weight. A density-based local outlier detection approach is introduced to compensate the deterioration of Euclidean distance for high-dimensional data. A novel concept of the degree of nonlinear correlation is incorporated to compute the contribution of every individual data attribute. Effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by performing an experimental analysis and making comparisons with other typical data-based approaches, and the results exhibit higher estimation accuracy.

Short-Term Solar Power Forecasting Based on Weighted Gaussian Process Regression

A 30 MJ (8.4 kWh) Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES) unit with a 10 MW converter has been installed and commissioned at the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) substation in Tacoma, Washington. This is the first large-scale application in the US of superconductivity in an electric utility system. The unit, which is capable of absorbing and releasing up to 10 MJ of energy at a frequency of 0.35 Hz, was designed to damp the dominant power swing mode of the Pacific AC Intertie. This paper describes the electrical characteristics of the magnetic energy storage unit, its modes of operation, results of device tests, means for controlling real and reactive power, and some initial power system response tests. A short summary of the operating history of the unit over the first eleven months is also presented.

Commissioning tests of the Bonneville Power Administration 30 MJ superconducting magnetic energy storage unit

The power systems operated by the utilities in developing countries suffer from a large gap between demand and generation, inadequate transmission capacity, and nonuniform location of the load centers and generating stations. Occurrences of faults in such systems, in most of the cases, end up with the worst consequences (i.e., complete blackout). This paper illustrates the way a blackout can be prevented in real time through controlled segregation of a system into a number of viable islands together with generation and/or load shedding. The nature and location of any fault that warrants such islanding can be ascertained in real time through monitoring the active-power (megawatt) flows at both ends of a number of prespecified lines. The blackout of June 20, 1998 in the Bangladesh Power Development Board system has been used as an example in the illustration. The philosophy of the proposed islanding scheme may be considered for implementation in other power systems also.

A scheme for controlled islanding to prevent subsequent blackout

Characteristics of narrow bipolar pulses observed in Malaysia

Harmonic components of leakage current as a diagnostic tool to study the aging of insulators

This paper reports an investigation into the leakage current harmonic components of 45 units of glass insulator samples. The insulator units comprise 5 groups of insulators: new insulators and naturally field-aged insulators with different ageing periods->30, 20, 15, and <;10 years from a 132 kV transmission line. Experiments were conducted at different electrical stresses (0.17, 0.24, and 0.34 kV/cm) and salt-fog conductivities (900 and 1500 μS/cm). The results suggest that the insulator samples' leakage current (LC) waveform and the total harmonic distortion (THD) correspond well with degree of ageing. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis performed on the stored waveforms showed a strong correlation between the ratio of the third to fifth harmonic amplitudes with the degree of ageing and in-service period of the naturally field-aged insulators. Furthermore, this investigation revealed a pattern between the groups of insulator samples in respect to their ageing. These findings were further validated with traditional Dielectric Dissipation Factor tests carried out on the insulators, and the results also correlated well with the samples' degree of ageing as well as service period. In addition, neural networks were trained to recognize the insulator samples' degree of ageing. This study found that, alternative to the diagnosis of insulator ageing through the measurement of loss angles or tangent delta, LC harmonics can be used as diagnostic tools and for the on-line monitoring of in-service aged transmission line ceramic glass insulators based on odd harmonics and third to fifth harmonic ratios.

Odd harmonics and third to fifth harmonic ratios of leakage currents as diagnostic tools to study the ageing of glass insulators

The current paper presents an alternative and innovative technique to predict the severity of pollution of high voltage insulator using a higher harmonics component with up to the 7th component of leakage current. The leakage current was measured using a current transformer and a shunt resistor. Next, laboratory tests were conducted on glass and porcelain insulators with artificial pollution under salt-fog pollution state which is further represented by three levels, namely light, medium, and high contamination. In this case, the formulation of a new severity of harmonic index refers to a ratio of the sum of 5th and 7th to the 3rd harmonic component. More importantly, the new index managed to provide more accurate results when used as a diagnostic tool for the levels of pollution, compared to the ratio of the total harmonic distortion (THD) to the number of odd harmonics components (n) as the boundaries. In this case, the insulators were found to be in a clean and normal condition when the $K_{(5+7)/3}$ value was greater than 3%. Contrastingly, the insulators were in an extreme condition when the $K_{(5+7)/3}$ was lower than 3%. Nevertheless, there is a high probability of a flashover in glass and porcelain insulators if the $K\,\,_{(5+7)/3}$ value is less than 2%. The present study shows the possibility of utilizing the value of strange harmonics up to the 7th component of leakage current as the parameter for the monitoring of leakage current in overhead insulators in the presence of contamination. Overall, it can be concluded that the 3rd, 5th, and 7th harmonics details extracted from the leakage current act as a good indicator for the level of contamination.

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Hussein Ahmad

Papers

A scheme for controlled islanding to prevent subsequent blackout

Characteristics of narrow bipolar pulses observed in Malaysia

Harmonic components of leakage current as a diagnostic tool to study the aging of insulators

Odd harmonics and third to fifth harmonic ratios of leakage currents as diagnostic tools to study the ageing of glass insulators

The Leakage Current Components as a Diagnostic Tool to Estimate Contamination Level on High Voltage Insulators