Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD).

BACKGROUND

There is disagreement about the level of asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We conducted a living systematic review and meta-analysis to address three questions: (1) Amongst people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2, what proportion does not experience symptoms at all during their infection? (2) Amongst people with SARS-CoV-2 infection who are asymptomatic when diagnosed, what proportion will develop symptoms later? (3) What proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is accounted for by people who are either asymptomatic throughout infection or presymptomatic?

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We searched PubMed, Embase, bioRxiv, and medRxiv using a database of SARS-CoV-2 literature that is updated daily, on 25 March 2020, 20 April 2020, and 10 June 2020. Studies of people with SARS-CoV-2 diagnosed by reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) that documented follow-up and symptom status at the beginning and end of follow-up or modelling studies were included. One reviewer extracted data and a second verified the extraction, with disagreement resolved by discussion or a third reviewer. Risk of bias in empirical studies was assessed with an adapted checklist for case series, and the relevance and credibility of modelling studies were assessed using a published checklist. We included a total of 94 studies. The overall estimate of the proportion of people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and remain asymptomatic throughout infection was 20% (95% confidence interval [CI] 17-25) with a prediction interval of 3%-67% in 79 studies that addressed this review question. There was some evidence that biases in the selection of participants influence the estimate. In seven studies of defined populations screened for SARS-CoV-2 and then followed, 31% (95% CI 26%-37%, prediction interval 24%-38%) remained asymptomatic. The proportion of people that is presymptomatic could not be summarised, owing to heterogeneity. The secondary attack rate was lower in contacts of people with asymptomatic infection than those with symptomatic infection (relative risk 0.35, 95% CI 0.10-1.27). Modelling studies fit to data found a higher proportion of all SARS-CoV-2 infections resulting from transmission from presymptomatic individuals than from asymptomatic individuals. Limitations of the review include that most included studies were not designed to estimate the proportion of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and were at risk of selection biases; we did not consider the possible impact of false negative RT-PCR results, which would underestimate the proportion of asymptomatic infections; and the database does not include all sources.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this living systematic review suggest that most people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 will not remain asymptomatic throughout the course of the infection. The contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic infections to overall SARS-CoV-2 transmission means that combination prevention measures, with enhanced hand hygiene, masks, testing tracing, and isolation strategies and social distancing, will continue to be needed.

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Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: A living systematic review and meta-analysis.

Determine age-specific infection fatality rates for COVID-19 to inform public health policies and communications that help protect vulnerable age groups. Studies of COVID-19 prevalence were collected by conducting an online search of published articles, preprints, and government reports that were publicly disseminated prior to 18 September 2020. The systematic review encompassed 113 studies, of which 27 studies (covering 34 geographical locations) satisfied the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. Age-specific IFRs were computed using the prevalence data in conjunction with reported fatalities 4 weeks after the midpoint date of the study, reflecting typical lags in fatalities and reporting. Meta-regression procedures in Stata were used to analyze the infection fatality rate (IFR) by age. Our analysis finds a exponential relationship between age and IFR for COVID-19. The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. Moreover, our results indicate that about 90% of the variation in population IFR across geographical locations reflects differences in the age composition of the population and the extent to which relatively vulnerable age groups were exposed to the virus. These results indicate that COVID-19 is hazardous not only for the elderly but also for middle-aged adults, for whom the infection fatality rate is two orders of magnitude greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident and far more dangerous than seasonal influenza. Moreover, the overall IFR for COVID-19 should not be viewed as a fixed parameter but as intrinsically linked to the age-specific pattern of infections. Consequently, public health measures to mitigate infections in older adults could substantially decrease total deaths.

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Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants harboring mutations in the spike (S) protein has raised concern about potential immune escape. Here, we studied humoral and cellular immune responses to wild type SARS-CoV-2 and the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants of concern in a cohort of 121 BNT162b2 mRNA-vaccinated health care workers (HCW). Twenty-three HCW recovered from mild COVID-19 disease and exhibited a recall response with high levels of SARS-CoV-2-specific functional antibodies and virus-specific T cells after a single vaccination. Specific immune responses were also detected in seronegative HCW after one vaccination, but a second dose was required to reach high levels of functional antibodies and cellular immune responses in all individuals. Vaccination-induced antibodies cross-neutralized the variants B.1.1.7 and B.1.351, but the neutralizing capacity and Fc-mediated functionality against B.1.351 was consistently 2- to 4-fold lower than to the homologous virus. In addition, peripheral blood mononuclear cells were stimulated with peptide pools spanning the mutated S regions of B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 to detect cross-reactivity of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells with variants. Importantly, we observed no differences in CD4+ T-cell activation in response to variant antigens, indicating that the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 S proteins do not escape T-cell-mediated immunity elicited by the wild type S protein. In conclusion, this study shows that some variants can partially escape humoral immunity induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection or BNT162b2 vaccination, but S-specific CD4+ T-cell activation is not affected by the mutations in the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants.

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern partially escape humoral but not T-cell responses in COVID-19 convalescent donors and vaccinees.

The paper deals with two exact mathematical models of study: A borrowed model with constant intensity of study and amodel with variable intensity of study derived by the authors are presented using data acquired in real pedagogical research. Thebounding of study performance is proved and precisely determined in dependence on personal (group) parameters of study andintensity of forgetting. The parameter of forgetting has decisive influence on total performance.

Mathematical Modelling of Study

Background Patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can unknowingly spread the virus to several people during the early subclinical period. Methods We evaluated the viral dynamics in various body fluid specimens, such as nasopharyngeal swab, oropharyngeal swab, saliva, sputum, and urine specimens, of two patients with COVID-19 from hospital day 1 to 9. Additional samples of the saliva were taken at 1 hour, 2 hours, and 4 hours after using a chlorhexidine mouthwash. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load was determined by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Results SARS-CoV-2 was detected from all the five specimens of both patients by rRT-PCR. The viral load was the highest in the nasopharynx (patient 1 = 8.41 log10 copies/mL; patient 2 = 7.49 log10 copies/mL), but it was also remarkably high in the saliva (patient 1 = 6.63 log10 copies/mL; patient 2 = 7.10 log10 copies/mL). SARS-CoV-2 was detected up to hospital day 6 (illness day 9 for patient 2) from the saliva of both patients. The viral load in the saliva decreased transiently for 2 hours after using the chlorhexidine mouthwash. Conclusion SARS-CoV-2 viral load was consistently high in the saliva; it was relatively higher than that in the oropharynx during the early stage of COVID-19. Chlorhexidine mouthwash was effective in reducing the SARS-CoV-2 viral load in the saliva for a short-term period.

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Clinical Significance of a High SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in the Saliva.

Comparison of the second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea: Importance of early public health intervention.

Asymptomatic infection and atypical manifestations of COVID-19: Comparison of viral shedding duration.

Conventional power spectrum methods based on fast Fourier transform (FFT), autoregressive(AR) model are not appropriate for analyzing biomedical signals whose spectral characteristics change rapidly. On the other hand, time-frequency analysis has more desirable characteristics of a time-varying spectrum. In this study, we investigated the spectral components of heart rate variability (HRV) in a time-frequency domain. Then, from the instantaneous frequency, obtained from time-frequency distribution, the method extracting frequency components of HRV was proposed. The subjects were 17 healthy young men. A coin-stacking task was used to induce mental stress. In the results, the emotional stress of subjects produced an increase in sympathetic activity. Sympathetic activation was responsible for the significant increase in the LF/HF ratio. The subjects were divided into two groups with task ability. The subject who had higher mental stress had a lack of task ability.

The analysis of mental stress using time-frequency distribution of heart rate variability signal

Social distancing has been adopted as one of basic protective measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). During 2019-2020 season, influenza epidemic period was exceptionally short and epidemic peak was low in comparison with previous seasons in Korea. Influenza epidemic pattern was bimodal in 2016-2017 and 2018-2019 seasons, however, influenza viruses have rarely been circulating in spring, 2020 in Korea. Although multiple factors could affect the size of influenza epidemic, extensive application of nonpharmaceutical interventions including mask wearing and social distancing in response to COVID-19 seems to be a major factor of reduced influenza epidemic. Social distancing measures with high feasibility and high acceptability should be implemented even if severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines are developed in the future. Establishment of guideline for workplace social distancing is needed and it would contribute to reduce disease burden of influenza, especially in vaccine mismatch year.

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Hye Seong

Papers

Clinical Significance of a High SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in the Saliva.

Comparison of the second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea: Importance of early public health intervention.

Asymptomatic infection and atypical manifestations of COVID-19: Comparison of viral shedding duration.

The analysis of mental stress using time-frequency distribution of heart rate variability signal

Social Distancing against COVID-19: Implication for the Control of Influenza.