Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

: This thesis applies neural network feature selection techniques to multivariate time series data to improve prediction of a target time series. Two approaches to feature selection are used. First, a subset enumeration method is used to determine which financial indicators are most useful for aiding in prediction of the S&P 500 futures daily price. The candidate indicators evaluated include RSI, Stochastics and several moving averages. Results indicate that the Stochastics and RSI indicators result in better prediction results than the moving averages. The second approach to feature selection is calculation of individual saliency metrics. A new decision boundary-based individual saliency metric, and a classifier independent saliency metric are developed and tested. Ruck's saliency metric, the decision boundary based saliency metric, and the classifier independent saliency metric are compared for a data set consisting of the RSI and Stochastics indicators as well as delayed closing price values. The decision based metric and the Ruck metric results are similar, but the classifier independent metric agrees with neither of the other metrics. The nine most salient features, determined by the decision boundary based metric, are used to train a neural network and the results are presented and compared to other published results. (AN)

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Nonlinear Time Series Analysis.

Filtering and smoothing methods are used to produce an accurate estimate of the state of a time-varying system based on multiple observational inputs (data). Interest in these methods has exploded in recent years, with numerous applications emerging in fields such as navigation, aerospace engineering, telecommunications, and medicine. This compact, informal introduction for graduate students and advanced undergraduates presents the current state-of-the-art filtering and smoothing methods in a unified Bayesian framework. Readers learn what non-linear Kalman filters and particle filters are, how they are related, and their relative advantages and disadvantages. They also discover how state-of-the-art Bayesian parameter estimation methods can be combined with state-of-the-art filtering and smoothing algorithms. The book’s practical and algorithmic approach assumes only modest mathematical prerequisites. Examples include MATLAB computations, and the numerous end-of-chapter exercises include computational assignments. MATLAB/GNU Octave source code is available for download at www.cambridge.org/sarkka, promoting hands-on work with the methods.

贝叶斯滤波与平滑 (Bayesian filtering and smoothing)

Recent advances in physical reservoir computing: A review

What happens in our brain when we make a decision? What triggers a neuron to send out a signal? What is the neural code? This textbook for advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students provides a thorough and up-to-date introduction to the fields of computational and theoretical neuroscience. It covers classical topics, including the Hodgkin-Huxley equations and Hopfield model, as well as modern developments in the field such as Generalized Linear Models and decision theory. Concepts are introduced using clear step-by-step explanations suitable for readers with only a basic knowledge of differential equations and probabilities, and are richly illustrated by figures and worked-out examples. End-of-chapter summaries and classroom-tested exercises make the book ideal for courses or for self-study. The authors also give pointers to the literature and an extensive bibliography, which will prove invaluable to readers interested in further study.

Neuronal Dynamics: From Single Neurons to Networks and Models of Cognition

It has been suggested that the lateral intraparietal area (LIP) of macaques plays a fundamental role in sensorimotor decision-making. We examined the neural code in LIP at the level of individual spike trains using a statistical approach based on generalized linear models. We found that LIP responses reflected a combination of temporally overlapping task- and decision-related signals. Our model accounts for the detailed statistics of LIP spike trains and accurately predicts spike trains from task events on single trials. Moreover, we derived an optimal decoder for heterogeneous, multiplexed LIP responses that could be implemented in biologically plausible circuits. In contrast with interpretations of LIP as providing an instantaneous code for decision variables, we found that optimal decoding requires integrating LIP spikes over two distinct timescales. These analyses provide a detailed understanding of neural representations in LIP and a framework for studying the coding of multiplexed signals in higher brain areas.

Encoding and decoding in parietal cortex during sensorimotor decision-making

This paper discusses an information theoretic approach of designing sparse kernel adaptive filters. To determine useful data to be learned and remove redundant ones, a subjective information measure called surprise is introduced. Surprise captures the amount of information a datum contains which is transferable to a learning system. Based on this concept, we propose a systematic sparsification scheme, which can drastically reduce the time and space complexity without harming the performance of kernel adaptive filters. Nonlinear regression, short term chaotic time-series prediction, and long term time-series forecasting examples are presented.

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An Information Theoretic Approach of Designing Sparse Kernel Adaptive Filters

This paper presents a kernelized version of the extended recursive least squares (EX-KRLS) algorithm which implements for the first time a general linear state model in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS), or equivalently a general nonlinear state model in the input space. The center piece of this development is a reformulation of the well known extended recursive least squares (EX-RLS) algorithm in RKHS which only requires inner product operations between input vectors, thus enabling the application of the kernel property (commonly known as the kernel trick). The first part of the paper presents a set of theorems that shows the generality of the approach. The EX-KRLS is preferable to 1) a standard kernel recursive least squares (KRLS) in applications that require tracking the state-vector of general linear state-space models in the kernel space, or 2) an EX-RLS when the application requires a nonlinear observation and state models. The second part of the paper compares the EX-KRLS in nonlinear Rayleigh multipath channel tracking and in Lorenz system modeling problem. We show that the proposed algorithm is able to outperform the standard KRLS and EX-RLS in both simulations.

Extended Kernel Recursive Least Squares Algorithm

Latent variable time-series models are among the most heavily used tools from machine learning and applied statistics. These models have the advantage of learning latent structure both from noisy observations and from the temporal ordering in the data, where it is assumed that meaningful correlation structure exists across time. A few highly-structured models, such as the linear dynamical system with linear-Gaussian observations, have closed-form inference procedures (e.g. the Kalman Filter), but this case is an exception to the general rule that exact posterior inference in more complex generative models is intractable. Consequently, much work in time-series modeling focuses on approximate inference procedures for one particular class of models. Here, we extend recent developments in stochastic variational inference to develop a `black-box' approximate inference technique for latent variable models with latent dynamical structure. We propose a structured Gaussian variational approximate posterior that carries the same intuition as the standard Kalman filter-smoother but, importantly, permits us to use the same inference approach to approximate the posterior of much more general, nonlinear latent variable generative models. We show that our approach recovers accurate estimates in the case of basic models with closed-form posteriors, and more interestingly performs well in comparison to variational approaches that were designed in a bespoke fashion for specific non-conjugate models.

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Black box variational inference for state space models

During perceptual decision-making, responses in the middle temporal (MT) and lateral intraparietal (LIP) areas appear to map onto theoretically defined quantities, with MT representing instantaneous motion evidence and LIP reflecting the accumulated evidence. However, several aspects of the transformation between the two areas have not been empirically tested. We therefore performed multistage systems identification analyses of the simultaneous activity of MT and LIP during individual decisions. We found that monkeys based their choices on evidence presented in early epochs of the motion stimulus and that substantial early weighting of motion was present in MT responses. LIP responses recapitulated MT early weighting and contained a choice-dependent buildup that was distinguishable from motion integration. Furthermore, trial-by-trial variability in LIP did not depend on MT activity. These results identify important deviations from idealizations of MT and LIP and motivate inquiry into sensorimotor computations that may intervene between MT and LIP.

Il Memming Park

Papers

Encoding and decoding in parietal cortex during sensorimotor decision-making

An Information Theoretic Approach of Designing Sparse Kernel Adaptive Filters

Extended Kernel Recursive Least Squares Algorithm

Black box variational inference for state space models

Functional dissection of signal and noise in MT and LIP during decision-making