Globally, almost four and a half million people died from injury in 2019. Alcohol's contribution to injury-related premature loss of life, disability and ill-health is pervasive, touching individuals, families and societies throughout the world. We conducted a review of research evidence for alcohol's causal role in injury by focusing on previously published systematic reviews, meta-analyses and where indicated, key studies. The review summarises evidence for pharmacological and physiological effects that support postulated causal pathways, highlights findings and knowledge gaps relevant to specific forms of injury (i.e., violence, suicide and self-harm, road injury, falls, burns, workplace injuries) and lays out options for evidence-based prevention.

Alcohol and the Risk of Injury.

Alcohol use and its burden constitute one of the largest public health challenges in the WHO European Region. Raising alcohol taxes is a cost-effective “best buy” measure to reduce alcohol consumption, but its implementation remains uneven. This paper provides an overview of existing tax structures in 50 countries and subregions of the Region, estimates their proportions of tax on retail prices of beer, wine, and spirits, and quantifies the number of deaths that could be averted annually if these tax shares were raised to a minimum level. Review of databases and statistical reports on taxes and mean retail prices of alcohol beverages in the Region. Affordability was calculated based on alcohol prices, adjusted for differences in purchasing power. Consumption changes and averted mortality were modelled assuming two scenarios. In Scenario 1, a minimum excise tax share level of 25% of the beverage-specific retail price was assumed for all countries. In Scenario 2, in addition to a minimum excise tax share level of 15% it was assumed that per unit of ethanol minimal retail prices were the same irrespective of alcoholic beverages (equalisation). Sensitivity analyses were conducted for different price elasticities. Alcohol is very affordable in the Region and alcohol taxes have clearly been under-utilized as a public health measure, constituting on average only 5·7%, 14·0% and 31·3% of the retail prices of wine, beer, and spirits, respectively. Tax shares were higher in the eastern part of the Region compared to the EU, where various countries did not have excise taxes on wine. Annually, the introduction of a minimum tax share of 25% (Scenario 1) could avert 40,033 (95% CI: 38,054-46,097) deaths in the WHO European Region (with 753,454,300 inhabitants older than 15 years of age). If a 15% tax share with equalisation were implemented (Scenario 2), 132,906 (95% CI: (124,691-151,674) deaths could be averted. All sensitivity analyses with different elasticities yielded outcomes close to those of the main analyses. Similar to tobacco taxes, increasing alcohol taxes should be considered to be a health-based measure aimed at saving lives. Many countries have hesitated to apply higher taxes to alcohol, but the present results show a clear health benefit as a result of implementing a minimum tax share. This work was supported by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (1R01AA028224) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Institute of Neurosciences, and Mental Health and Addiction (SMN-13950). 

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100325

Impact of introducing a minimum alcohol tax share in retail prices on alcohol-attributable mortality in the WHO European Region: A modelling study

Abstract Aims To examine how standard analytical approaches to model mortality outcomes of alcohol use compare to the true results using the impact of the March 2017 alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania on all-cause mortality as an example. Methods Four methodologies were used: two direct methodologies: (a) interrupted time-series on mortality and (b) comparing predictions based on time-series modeling with the real number of deaths for the year following the implementation of the tax increase; and two indirect methodologies: (c) combining a regression-based estimate for the impact of taxation on alcohol consumption with attributable-fraction methodology and (d) using price elasticities from meta-analyses to estimate the impact on alcohol consumption before applying attributable-fraction methodology. Results and Conclusions While all methodologies estimated reductions in all-cause mortality, especially for men, there was substantial variability in the level of mortality reductions predicted. The indirect methodologies had lower predictions as the meta-analyses on elasticities and risk relations seem to underestimate the true values for Lithuania. Directly estimated effects of taxation based on the actual mortalities seem to best represent the true reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality. A significant increase in alcohol excise taxation had a marked impact on all-cause mortality in Lithuania. 

Predicting the Impact of Alcohol Taxation Increases on Mortality—A Comparison of Different Estimation Techniques

Objective To assess the immediate impact of the introduction of minimum unit pricing (MUP) in Scotland on alcohol consumption and whether the impact differed by sex, level of alcohol consumption, age, social grade and level of residential deprivation of respondents. Design Primary controlled interrupted time series analysis and secondary before-and-after analysis of the impact of introducing MUP in Scotland using alcohol consumption data for England as control. Setting Data from Kantar Worldpanel’s Alcovision survey, a continuous retrospective online timeline follow-back diary survey of the previous week’s alcohol consumption. Participants 53 347 women and 53 143 men. Interventions Introduction of a minimum price of 50 pence per UK unit (6.25 pence/g) for the sale of alcohol in Scotland on 1 May 2018. Main outcome measures Number of grams of alcohol consumed per week, in total, in off-trade (eg, at home) and in on-trade (eg, in pubs, restaurants). Results Primary interrupted time series analyses found that the introduction of MUP was associated with a drop in reported weekly total alcohol consumption of 5.94 g (95% CI 1.29 to 10.60), a drop in off-trade consumption of 3.27 g (95% CI −0.01 to 6.56) and a drop in on-trade consumption of 2.67 g (95% CI −1.48 to 6.82). Associated reductions were larger for women than for men and were greater among heavier drinkers than for lighter drinkers, except for the 5% of heaviest drinking men for whom an associated increase in consumption was found. Secondary before-and-after analyses found that reductions in consumption were greater among older respondents and those living in less deprived areas. The introduction of MUP was not associated with a reduction in consumption among younger men and men living in more deprived areas. Conclusions Greater policy attention needs to be addressed to the heaviest drinking men, to younger men and to men who live in more deprived areas.

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Differential impact of minimum unit pricing on alcohol consumption between Scottish men and women: controlled interrupted time series analysis

Abstract Background A classic methodology used in evaluating the impact of health policy interventions is interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis, applying a quasi-experimental design that uses both pre- and post-policy data without randomization. In this paper, we took a simulation-based approach to estimating intervention effects under different assumptions. Methods Each of the simulated mortality rates contained a linear time trend, seasonality, autoregressive, and moving-average terms. The simulations of the policy effects involved three scenarios: 1) immediate-level change only, 2) immediate-level and slope change, and 3) lagged-level and slope change. The estimated effects and biases of these effects were examined via three matched generalized additive mixed models, each of which used two different approaches: 1) effects based on estimated coefficients ( estimated approach), and 2) effects based on predictions from models ( predicted approach). The robustness of these two approaches was further investigated assuming misspecification of the models. Results When one simulated dataset was analyzed with the matched model, the two analytical approaches produced similar estimates. However, when the models were misspecified, the number of deaths prevented, estimated using the predicted vs. estimated approaches, were very different, with the predicted approach yielding estimates closer to the real effect. The discrepancy was larger when the policy was applied early in the time-series. Conclusion Even when the sample size appears to be large enough, one should still be cautious when conducting ITS analyses, since the power also depends on when in the series the intervention occurs. In addition, the intervention lagged effect needs to be fully considered at the study design stage (i.e., when developing the models). 

/pdf/estimating-effects-of-health-policy-interventions-using-1w4fm5qy.pdf

Estimating effects of health policy interventions using interrupted time-series analyses: a simulation study

Background and aims Alcohol use has been identified as a major risk factor for burden of mortality and disease, particularly for countries in eastern Europe. During the past two decades, several countries in this region have implemented effective alcohol policy measures to combat this burden. The aim of the current study was to measure the association between Lithuania's alcohol control policies and adult all-cause mortality. Design Interrupted time-series methodology by means of general additive models. Setting Lithuania. Participants Adult population of Lithuania, aged 20 years and older. Measurements Alcohol control policies were ascertained via a document review of relevant legislation materials. Policy effects were evaluated as follows: (1) slope changes in periods of legislative (non-)activity with regard to alcohol control policy (analysis 1); (2) level changes of three interventions following recommendations of the World Health Organization (analysis 2); and (3) level changes of seven interventions judged a priori by an international panel of experts (analysis 3). Mortality was measured by sex-stratified and total monthly age-standardized rates of all-cause mortality for the adult population. Findings During the period 2001-18, effective alcohol control policy measures were implemented on several occasions, and in those years the all-cause mortality rate declined by approximately 3.2% more than in years without such policies. In particular, the implementation of increased taxation in 2017 was associated with reduced mortality over and above the general trend for men and in total for all analyses, which amounted to 1452 deaths avoided (95% confidence interval = -166 to -2739) in the year following the implementation of the policy. Conclusions Alcohol control policies in Lithuania appear to have reduced the overall adult all-cause mortality over and above secular trends.

Ingrida Zurlytė

Papers

Alcohol control policy measures and all-cause mortality in Lithuania: an interrupted time–series analysis