Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.

The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale

Terrestrial vegetation, especially tropical rain forest, releases vast quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to the atmosphere, which are removed by oxidation reactions and deposition of reaction products. The oxidation is mainly initiated by hydroxyl radicals (OH), primarily formed through the photodissociation of ozone. Previously it was thought that, in unpolluted air, biogenic VOCs deplete OH and reduce the atmospheric oxidation capacity. Conversely, in polluted air VOC oxidation leads to noxious oxidant build-up by the catalytic action of nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Here we report aircraft measurements of atmospheric trace gases performed over the pristine Amazon forest. Our data reveal unexpectedly high OH concentrations. We propose that natural VOC oxidation, notably of isoprene, recycles OH efficiently in low-NO(x) air through reactions of organic peroxy radicals. Computations with an atmospheric chemistry model and the results of laboratory experiments suggest that an OH recycling efficiency of 40-80 per cent in isoprene oxidation may be able to explain the high OH levels we observed in the field. Although further laboratory studies are necessary to explore the chemical mechanism responsible for OH recycling in more detail, our results demonstrate that the biosphere maintains a remarkable balance with the atmospheric environment.

Atmospheric oxidation capacity sustained by a tropical forest

Atmospheric composition change: Ecosystems–Atmosphere interactions

. The knowledge of the lightning-induced nitrogen oxides (LNOx) source is important for understanding and predicting the nitrogen oxides and ozone distributions in the troposphere and their trends, the oxidising capacity of the atmosphere, and the lifetime of trace gases destroyed by reactions with OH. This knowledge is further required for the assessment of other important NOx sources, in particular from aviation emissions, the stratosphere, and from surface sources, and for understanding the possible feedback between climate changes and lightning. This paper reviews more than 3 decades of research. The review includes laboratory studies as well as surface, airborne and satellite-based observations of lightning and of NOx and related species in the atmosphere. Relevant data available from measurements in regions with strong LNOx influence are identified, including recent observations at midlatitudes and over tropical continents where most lightning occurs. Various methods to model LNOx at cloud scales or globally are described. Previous estimates are re-evaluated using the global annual mean flash frequency of 44±5 s−1 reported from OTD satellite data. From the review, mainly of airborne measurements near thunderstorms and cloud-resolving models, we conclude that a "typical" thunderstorm flash produces 15 (2–40)×1025 NO molecules per flash, equivalent to 250 mol NOx or 3.5 kg of N mass per flash with uncertainty factor from 0.13 to 2.7. Mainly as a result of global model studies for various LNOx parameterisations tested with related observations, the best estimate of the annual global LNOx nitrogen mass source and its uncertainty range is (5±3) Tg a−1 in this study. In spite of a smaller global flash rate, the best estimate is essentially the same as in some earlier reviews, implying larger flash-specific NOx emissions. The paper estimates the LNOx accuracy required for various applications and lays out strategies for improving estimates in the future. An accuracy of about 1 Tg a−1 or 20%, as necessary in particular for understanding tropical tropospheric chemistry, is still a challenging goal.

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The global lightning-induced nitrogen oxides source

. The new Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) describes atmospheric chemistry and meteorological processes in a modular framework, following strict coding standards. It has been coupled to the ECHAM5 general circulation model, which has been slightly modified for this purpose. A 90-layer model setup up to 0.01 hPa was used at spectral T42 resolution to simulate the lower and middle atmosphere. With the high vertical resolution the model simulates the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. The model meteorology has been tested to check the influence of the changes to ECHAM5 and the radiation interactions with the new representation of atmospheric composition. In the simulations presented here a Newtonian relaxation technique was applied in the tropospheric part of the domain to weakly nudge the model towards the analysed meteorology during the period 1998–2005. This allows an efficient and direct evaluation with satellite and in-situ data. It is shown that the tropospheric wave forcing of the stratosphere in the model suffices to reproduce major stratospheric warming events leading e.g. to the vortex split over Antarctica in 2002. Characteristic features such as dehydration and denitrification caused by the sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud particles and ozone depletion during winter and spring are simulated well, although ozone loss in the lower polar stratosphere is slightly underestimated. The model realistically simulates stratosphere-troposphere exchange processes as indicated by comparisons with satellite and in situ measurements. The evaluation of tropospheric chemistry presented here focuses on the distributions of ozone, hydroxyl radicals, carbon monoxide and reactive nitrogen compounds. In spite of minor shortcomings, mostly related to the relatively coarse T42 resolution and the neglect of inter-annual changes in biomass burning emissions, the main characteristics of the trace gas distributions are generally reproduced well. The MESSy submodels and the ECHAM5/MESSy1 model output are available through the internet on request.

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The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1: consistent simulation of ozone from the surface to the mesosphere

We present the submodels DRYDEP and SEDI for the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy). Dry deposition of gases and aerosols is calculated within DRYDEP, whereas SEDI deals with aerosol particle sedimentation. Dry deposition velocities depend on the near-surface turbulence and the physical and chemical properties of the surface cover (e.g. the roughness length, soil pH or leaf stomatal exchange). The dry deposition algorithm used in DRYDEP is based on the big leaf approach and is described in detail within this Technical Note. The sedimentation submodel SEDI contains two sedimentation schemes: a simple upwind zeroth order scheme and a first order approach.

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Technical Note: An implementation of the dry removal processes DRY DEPosition and SEDImentation in the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy)

/pdf/corrigendum-to-technical-note-an-implementation-of-the-dry-3oiiqmzjrz.pdf

Corrigendum to "Technical Note: An implementation of the dry removal processes DRY DEPosition and SEDImentation in the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy)" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4617–4632, 2006

J. Buchholz

Papers

The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1: consistent simulation of ozone from the surface to the mesosphere

Technical Note: An implementation of the dry removal processes DRY DEPosition and SEDImentation in the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy)

Corrigendum to "Technical Note: An implementation of the dry removal processes DRY DEPosition and SEDImentation in the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy)" published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4617–4632, 2006