http://www.seamless-ip.org/DVD_Consortium_SEAMLESS/6_Dissemination/SEAMLESS-overview-AGSY.pdf

Integrated assessment of agricultural systems: a component - based framework for the European Union (Seamless)

In recent years, pressure has increased on environmental scientist/modellers to both undertake good science in an efficient and timely manner, under increasing resource constraints, and also to ensure that the science being performed is immediately relevant to a particular environmental management context. At the same time, environmental management is changing, with increasing requirements for multi-scale and multi-objective assessment and decision making that considers economic and social systems, as well as the ecosystem. Integration of management activities, and also of the modelling undertaken to support management, has become a high priority. To solve the problems of application and integration, knowledge encapsulation in models is being undertaken in a way that both meets the needs for good science, and also provides the conceptual and technical structures required for broader and more integrated application of that knowledge by managers. To support this modelling, tools and technologies from computer science and software engineering are being transferred to applied environmental science fields, and a range of new modelling and software development approaches are being pursued. The papers in this Special Issue provide examples of the integrated modelling concepts and applications that have been, or are being, developed. These include the use of object-oriented concepts, component-based modelling techniques and modelling frameworks, as well as the emerging use of integrated modelling platforms and metadata support for modelling semantics. This paper provides an overview of the science and management imperatives underlying recent developments, discusses the technological and conceptual developments that have taken place, and highlights some of the semantic, operational and process requirements that need to be addressed now that the technological aspects of integrated modelling are well advanced.

An overview of model integration for environmental applications—components, frameworks and semantics

The Murray–Darling Basin is Australia's food bowl and home to many iconic water bodies that are culturally and ecologically highly valued. The recent Millennium Drought (from mid-1990s to 2009) was the most severe hydrological drought since records started in the late 19th century. It severely impacted on the basin and for many acted as a wake-up call. To address the ongoing declines in water resources and environmental conditions and to prepare the region for climate change, Australia's Governments are currently attempting to introduce a new comprehensive, and integrated approach to the management of the basin's water resources. In this paper, long-term time series of climate, hydrological and environmental data are used to analyze how compounding stresses have gradually affected the hydrological system and its services. Major hydroclimatic stresses considered in this paper include salinity, water use, droughts, and climate change. Other, more localized or minor stresses exist (groundwater extraction, farm dams, afforestation, bush fires, cyanobacterial blooms and pollutants) and are reviewed more briefly. The history of water policy and planning shows that Government actions have been strongly influential on the basin. A shift in the strategic goals from water development to the protection and restoration of environmental assets is noticeable since the mid 1990s. Median climate change projections by 2030 indicate smaller reductions in rainfall and runoff than those observed during the recent Millennium Drought, but have a relatively high uncertainty attached to them. The use of regional approaches to reduce that uncertainty, such as statistical downscaling, points to a sizeable decline in rainfall by the end of the century. Most climate projections used for planning consider greenhouse emission scenarios that have smaller global emission trends than the one observed over the last decade. Other, ‘less optimistic’ scenarios have to be considered for long-term water planning and food security. Compounding all these stresses, is the naturally high hydroclimatic variability of this semi-arid region, that may have been insufficiently considered during previous water development and planning efforts. Successful water planning will need to balance cultural and ecological values with food production, account for high natural variability and uncertainty in climate change projections, learn from past mistakes and be cognizant of future hydrological changes.

A review of historic and future hydrological changes in the Murray-Darling Basin

. Amid an increasing water scarcity in many parts of the world, virtual water trade as both a policy instrument and practical means to balance the local, national and global water budget has received much attention in recent years. Building upon the knowledge of virtual water accounting in the literature, this study assesses the efficiency of water use embodied in the international food trade from the perspectives of exporting and importing countries and at the global and country levels. The investigation reveals that the virtual water flows primarily from countries of high crop water productivity to countries of low crop water productivity, generating a global saving in water use. Meanwhile, the total virtual water trade is dominated by green virtual water, which constitutes a low opportunity cost of water use as opposed to blue virtual water. A sensitivity analysis, however, suggests high uncertainties in the virtual water accounting and the estimation of the scale of water saving. The study also raises awareness of the limited effect of water scarcity on the global virtual water trade and the negative implications of the global water saving for the water use efficiency and food security in importing countries and the environment in exporting countries. The analysis shows the complexity in evaluating the efficiency gains in the international virtual water trade. The findings of the study, nevertheless, call for a greater emphasis on rainfed agriculture to improve the global food security and environmental sustainability.

/pdf/virtual-water-trade-an-assessment-of-water-use-efficiency-in-44ockpfxfa.pdf

Virtual water trade: an assessment of water use efficiency in the international food trade

Australian science has made rapid advances in the last decade in understanding eutrophication processes in inland waters and estuaries. The freshwater research on which these advances are based was triggered by well-publicised blooms of cyanobacteria during the 1980s and early 1990s, particularly a 1000 km long bloom on the Darling River. In estuaries the study which greatly enhanced our understanding but simultaneously served to stimulate further research into estuarine eutrophication, the Port Phillip Bay Study, was initially designed to address perceived problems of toxicants in the Bay but provided profound insights into drivers for, and ecosystem responses to, eutrophication. Subsequent estuarine research has largely been stimulated by management questions arising from Australia’s increasing coastal development for residential purposes. The research has shown that some of the beliefs extant at the time of the blooms were incorrect. For example, it is now clear that stratification and light penetration, not nutrient availability, are the triggers for blooms in the impounded rivers of southeastern Australia, although nutrient exhaustion limits the biomass of blooms. Again, nitrogen seems to play as important a role as phosphorus does in controlling the biomass of these freshwater blooms. The research has also shown that aspects of eutrophication, such as nutrient transport, are dominated by different processes in different parts of Australia. Many of the biophysical processes involved in eutrophication have now been quantified sufficiently for models to be developed of such processes as sediment-nutrient release, stratification, turbidity and algal growth in both freshwater and estuarine systems. In some cases the models are reliable enough for the knowledge gained in particular waterbodies to be applied elsewhere. Thus, there is now a firm scientific foundation for managers to rely upon when managing algal blooms. Whilst these findings have already been presented to managers and communities throughout Australia, there is still a considerable way to go before they are absorbed into their modus operandi.

Eutrophication in Australian rivers, reservoirs and estuaries - a southern hemisphere perspective on the science and its implications

This paper presents a software architecture for the management of environmental models. The Systems Theory representation of models is embedded in an object-oriented approach that emphasises the separation of models from data, thereby promoting model and data integration and re-use. The concepts presented here correspond to the requirements of a Model Management System (MMS). It is finally shown how a Decision Support System can use this approach to implement the MMS in order to facilitate problem definition (via the domain base) and problem solution (via the model base).

Model and data integration and re-use in environmental decision support systems

The experience of using a decision support system for nutrient management in Australia

This issue of Environmental Modelling and Software contains a selection of papers on the advantages and problems of reuse and integration of environmental models. New knowledge arises from continuous evolution and progress in all the fields of science. The field of environmental modelling is no exception. Since the introduction of computers as tools to support for modelling some decades ago, programmers and modellers have been looking for ways to improve and reuse the millions of the lines of code produced by previous researchers. Re-using existing models is definitely a necessity. Most environmental models are used only once, not because they are inappropriate for other applications, but because of their inaccessibility to other researchers and because of the hurdles of integrating existing software into other new applications. It has been more convenient to make a fresh start in most new modelling projects. Software technology has advanced considerably over the last decade. Not only have object-oriented approaches made software re-use easier, but the explosively rapid development of the Internet has opened up great opportunities for sharing models with a wider range of potential users. The birth of many “on-line model bases” (see ESS GmbH, 1998; Ghk and GSF, 1998 for example) is a response to the demand for ready access to existing environmental models. Model re-use is allied with model integration. Often the purpose of model re-use is to develop an integrated modelling system for decision making. In other words, a Decision Support System (DSS). DSSs are an active research area in Management Science (Dolk and Kottemann, 1993), where various mathematical programming models are integrated into a single DSS which help a decision maker solve the different phases of a management problem. These phases range from production planning to inventory control to resource allocation. The task of an environmental manager is not that different. Complex problems involving planning, diagnosis and resource allocation are common. For example, a decision about allocating river flows will have an impact on agri-

Integration and Re-use of environmental models

Environmental planning legislation in New South Wales now requires local government authorities to draw up statutory plans that take into account, among other concerns, both the biophysical and the social environmental issues within their jurisdictions. The SIRO-PLAN method of plan production provides a systematic mechanism for fulfilling this requirement. This article describes the application of the method by planning researchers over 18 months to the production of a Local Environmental Plan for a rural local government in New South Wales. The policy formulation, the purposive data collection, and the deliberate adjustment of plans in order to recognize interest group requirements were all found to be valuable features of the method, while the translation of the ultimately chosen land-use plan into the explicit regulatory controls available to the local government authority was found to require further refinement. The capacity of SIRO-PLAN to quantify the resolution of competing environmental concerns in the final plan, although of value to planning researchers, proved too arcane for traditionally trained planners.

J. Richard Davis

Papers

Eutrophication in Australian rivers, reservoirs and estuaries - a southern hemisphere perspective on the science and its implications

Model and data integration and re-use in environmental decision support systems

The experience of using a decision support system for nutrient management in Australia

Integration and Re-use of environmental models

Systematizing the production of environmental plans: an Australian example