计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Statistics for Spatial Data.

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Most wars are now civil wars. Even though international wars attract enormous global attention, they have become infrequent and brief. Civil wars usually attract less attention, but they have become increasingly common and typically go on for years. This report argues that civil war is now an important issue for development. War retards development, but conversely, development retards war. This double causation gives rise to virtuous and vicious circles. Where development succeeds, countries become progressively safer from violent conflict, making subsequent development easier. Where development fails, countries are at high risk of becoming caught in a conflict trap in which war wrecks the economy and increases the risk of further war. The global incidence of civil war is high because the international community has done little to avert it. Inertia is rooted in two beliefs: that we can safely 'let them fight it out among themselves' and that 'nothing can be done' because civil war is driven by ancestral ethnic and religious hatreds. The purpose of this report is to challenge these beliefs.

Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy

This paper challenges the current belief that income inequality has a negative relationship with economic growth. It uses an improved data set on income inequality which not only reduces measurement error, but also allows estimation via a panel technique. Results suggest that in the short and medium term, an increase in a country's level of income inequality has a significant positive relationship with subsequent economic growth.

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A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth

A neoclassical growth model is used to empirically test for the influences of a civil war on steady-state income per capita both at home and in neighboring countries. This model provides the basis for measuring long-run and short-run effects of civil wars on income per capita growth in the host country and its neighbors. Evidence of significant collateral damage on economic growth in neighboring nations is uncovered. In addition, this damage is attributed to country-specific influences rather than to migration, human capital, or investment factors. As the intensity of the measure used to proxy the conflict increases, there are enhanced neighbor spillovers. Moreover, collateral damage from civil wars to growth is more pronounced in the short run.

Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers:

This article quantifies the impact of civil wars on economic growth at home and in nearby countries. Three alternative measures of nearness—contiguity, length of contiguous borders, and distance of closest approach—are used to capture the spatial dispersion of civil war consequences. We present short-run panel estimates (at five-year intervals) and long-run (1961‐95) panel estimates for the world. Generally, the distance measures, novel to this study, and not contiguity provides the most accurate measure of the diffusion of the negative economic consequences of civil wars on other countries. Unlike earlier studies, we also investigate the temporal influence of civil wars on growth at home and in nearby countries. Both the duration and the timing of civil wars have an economic impact.

Civil Wars and Economic Growth: Spatial Dispersion

The voluntary provision of a pure public good: The case of reduced CFC emissions and the Montreal Protocol

A theoretical model of emission reductions is specified that accounts for voluntary and non-voluntary behaviour regarding the adherence to the Helsinki and Sofia Protocols, which mandated emission reductions for sulphur (S) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), respectively. From this model, we derive an econometric specification for the demand for emission reductions that adjusts for the spatial dispersion of the pollutant. When tested for 25 European nations, the model performs well for sulphur cutbacks. Less satisfying results are obtained for NOx, because the model’s assumption of a unitary actor at the national level is less descriptive. Collective action considerations indicate that sulphur emissions are easier to control than those of NOx.

A Tale of Two Collectives: Sulphur versus Nitrogen Oxides Emission Reduction in Europe

The paper did not originally have an abstract. It explores the robustness of hedonic pricing estimation, focusing on four areas: 1) variable selection and treatment, 2) measurement error, 3) functional form, and 4) error distribution. The paper offers insights to guide the future conduct of hedonic environmental benefit studies.

James C. Murdoch

Papers

Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers:

Civil Wars and Economic Growth: Spatial Dispersion

The voluntary provision of a pure public good: The case of reduced CFC emissions and the Montreal Protocol

A Tale of Two Collectives: Sulphur versus Nitrogen Oxides Emission Reduction in Europe

The Robustness of Hedonic Price Estimation: Urban Air Quality