Networks of coupled dynamical systems have been used to model biological oscillators, Josephson junction arrays, excitable media, neural networks, spatial games, genetic control networks and many other self-organizing systems. Ordinarily, the connection topology is assumed to be either completely regular or completely random. But many biological, technological and social networks lie somewhere between these two extremes. Here we explore simple models of networks that can be tuned through this middle ground: regular networks 'rewired' to introduce increasing amounts of disorder. We find that these systems can be highly clustered, like regular lattices, yet have small characteristic path lengths, like random graphs. We call them 'small-world' networks, by analogy with the small-world phenomenon (popularly known as six degrees of separation. The neural network of the worm Caenorhabditis elegans, the power grid of the western United States, and the collaboration graph of film actors are shown to be small-world networks. Models of dynamical systems with small-world coupling display enhanced signal-propagation speed, computational power, and synchronizability. In particular, infectious diseases spread more easily in small-world networks than in regular lattices.

/pdf/collective-dynamics-of-small-world-networks-205zhem3gm.pdf

Collective dynamics of small-world networks

There is, I think, something ethereal about i —the square root of minus one. I remember first hearing about it at school. It seemed an odd beast at that time—an intruder hovering on the edge of reality.

Usually familiarity dulls this sense of the bizarre, but in the case of i it was the reverse: over the years the sense of its surreal nature intensified. It seemed that it was impossible to write mathematics that described the real world in …

I and i

抗原变异可使得多种致病微生物易于逃避宿主免疫应答。表达在感染红细胞表面的恶性疟原虫红细胞表面蛋白1（PfPMP1）与感染红细胞、内皮细胞、树突状细胞以及胎盘的单个或多个受体作用，在黏附及免疫逃避中起关键的作用。每个单倍体基因组var基因家族编码约60种成员，通过启动转录不同的var基因变异体为抗原变异提供了分子基础。

疟原虫var基因转换速率变化导致抗原变异[英]／Paul H, Robert P, Christodoulou Z, et al//Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

A 2.91-billion base pair (bp) consensus sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome was generated by the whole-genome shotgun sequencing method. The 14.8-billion bp DNA sequence was generated over 9 months from 27,271,853 high-quality sequence reads (5.11-fold coverage of the genome) from both ends of plasmid clones made from the DNA of five individuals. Two assembly strategies-a whole-genome assembly and a regional chromosome assembly-were used, each combining sequence data from Celera and the publicly funded genome effort. The public data were shredded into 550-bp segments to create a 2.9-fold coverage of those genome regions that had been sequenced, without including biases inherent in the cloning and assembly procedure used by the publicly funded group. This brought the effective coverage in the assemblies to eightfold, reducing the number and size of gaps in the final assembly over what would be obtained with 5.11-fold coverage. The two assembly strategies yielded very similar results that largely agree with independent mapping data. The assemblies effectively cover the euchromatic regions of the human chromosomes. More than 90% of the genome is in scaffold assemblies of 100,000 bp or more, and 25% of the genome is in scaffolds of 10 million bp or larger. Analysis of the genome sequence revealed 26,588 protein-encoding transcripts for which there was strong corroborating evidence and an additional approximately 12,000 computationally derived genes with mouse matches or other weak supporting evidence. Although gene-dense clusters are obvious, almost half the genes are dispersed in low G+C sequence separated by large tracts of apparently noncoding sequence. Only 1.1% of the genome is spanned by exons, whereas 24% is in introns, with 75% of the genome being intergenic DNA. Duplications of segmental blocks, ranging in size up to chromosomal lengths, are abundant throughout the genome and reveal a complex evolutionary history. Comparative genomic analysis indicates vertebrate expansions of genes associated with neuronal function, with tissue-specific developmental regulation, and with the hemostasis and immune systems. DNA sequence comparisons between the consensus sequence and publicly funded genome data provided locations of 2.1 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A random pair of human haploid genomes differed at a rate of 1 bp per 1250 on average, but there was marked heterogeneity in the level of polymorphism across the genome. Less than 1% of all SNPs resulted in variation in proteins, but the task of determining which SNPs have functional consequences remains an open challenge.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/291/5507/1304.full.pdf

The sequence of the human genome.

Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological e-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be e-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of e-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.

/pdf/bayesian-structural-inference-for-hidden-processes-4l4pceldni.pdf

Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes

We present results from experiments in which a genetic algorithm (GA) is used to evolve two dimensional cellular automata (CA) to perform a particular computational task (“density classification”) that requires globally-coordination information processing. The results are similar to that of earlier work on evolving one-dimensional CAs. The behavior of the evolved two-dimensional CAs is analyzed, and their performance is compared with that of several hand-designed two-dimensional CAs.

Evolving two-dimensional cellular automata to perform density classification: a report on work in progress

We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate-distortion theory to use causal shielding—a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference: optimal causal filtering and optimal causal estimation. Filtering corresponds to the ideal case in which the probability distribution of measurement sequences is known, giving a principled method to approximate a system’s causal structure at a desired level of representation. We show that in the limit in which a model-complexity constraint is relaxed, filtering finds the exact causal architecture of a stochastic dynamical system, known as the causal-state partition. From this, one can estimate the amount of historical information the process stores. More generally, causal filtering finds a graded model-complexity hierarchy of approximations to the causal architecture. Abrupt changes in the hierarchy, as a function of approximation, capture distinct scales of structural organization. For nonideal cases with finite data, we show how the correct number of the underlying causal states can be found by optimal causal estimation. A previously derived model-complexity control term allows us to correct for the effect of statistical fluctuations in probability estimates and thereby avoid overfitting.

/pdf/optimal-causal-inference-estimating-stored-information-and-46m1qfq7wp.pdf

Optimal causal inference: Estimating stored information and approximating causal architecture.

Accurately determining dependency structure is critical to discovering a system's causal organization. We recently showed that the transfer entropy fails in a key aspect of this---measuring information flow---due to its conflation of dyadic and polyadic relationships. We extend this observation to demonstrate that this is true of all such Shannon information measures when used to analyze multivariate dependencies. This has broad implications, particularly when employing information to express the organization and mechanisms embedded in complex systems, including the burgeoning efforts to combine complex network theory with information theory. Here, we do not suggest that any aspect of information theory is wrong. Rather, the vast majority of its informational measures are simply inadequate for determining the meaningful dependency structure within joint probability distributions. Therefore, such information measures are inadequate for discovering intrinsic causal relations. We close by demonstrating that such distributions exist across an arbitrary set of variables.

Multivariate Dependence Beyond Shannon Information

We adapt tools from information theory to analyze how an observer comes to synchronize with the hidden states of a finitary, stationary stochastic process. We show that synchronization is determined by both the process’s internal organization and by an observer’s model of it. We analyze these components using the convergence of state-block and block-state entropies, comparing them to the previously known convergence properties of the Shannon block entropy. Along the way we introduce a hierarchy of information quantifiers as derivatives and integrals of these entropies, which parallels a similar hierarchy introduced for block entropy. We also draw out the duality between synchronization properties and a process’s controllability. These tools lead to a new classification of a process’s alternative representations in terms of minimality, synchronizability, and unifilarity.

/pdf/synchronization-and-control-in-intrinsic-and-designed-46cyjeb44o.pdf

James P. Crutchfield

Papers

Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes

Evolving two-dimensional cellular automata to perform density classification: a report on work in progress

Optimal causal inference: Estimating stored information and approximating causal architecture.

Multivariate Dependence Beyond Shannon Information

Synchronization and control in intrinsic and designed computation: An information-theoretic analysis of competing models of stochastic computation