Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback

Cengage Learning, 2000. Book Condition: New. Brand New, Unread Copy in Perfect Condition. A+ Customer Service! Summary:

Applied Nonparametric Statistics

Northern wetlands may be vulnerable to increased carbon losses from methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, under current warming trends. However, the dynamic nature of open water inundation and wetting/drying patterns may constrain regional emissions, offsetting the potential magnitude of methane release. Here we conduct a satellite data driven model investigation of the combined effects of surface warming and moisture variability on high northern latitude (⩾45° N) wetland CH4 emissions, by considering (1) sub-grid scale changes in fractional water inundation (Fw) at 15 day, monthly and annual intervals using 25km resolution satellite microwave retrievals, and (2) the impact of recent (2003–11) wetting/drying on northern CH4 emissions. The model simulations indicate mean summer contributions of 53 Tg CH4yr �1 from boreal-Arctic wetlands. Approximately 10% and 16% of the emissions originate from open water and landscapes with emergent vegetation, as determined from respective 15 day Fw means or maximums, and significant increases in regional CH4 efflux were observed when incorporating satellite observed inundated land fractions into the model simulations at monthly or annual time scales. The satellite Fw record reveals widespread wetting across the Arctic continuous permafrost zone, contrasting with surface drying in boreal Canada, Alaska and western Eurasia. Arctic wetting and summer warming increased wetland emissions by 0.56Tg CH4yr �1 compared to the 2003–11 mean, but this was mainly offset by decreasing emissions (�0.38Tg CH4yr �1 )i n sub-Arctic areas experiencing surface drying or cooling. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring changes in surface moisture and temperature when assessing the vulnerability of boreal-Arctic wetlands to enhanced greenhouse gas emissions under a shifting climate.

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Surface water inundation in the boreal-Arctic: potential impacts on regional methane emissions

The term thermokarst describes the processes and landforms that involve collapse of the land surface as a result of the melting of ground ice. We review the literature that has contributed to our understanding of patterns, processes and feedbacks, and the environmental consequences of thermokarst, focusing on hillslope, thaw lake and wetland processes. Advances in remote sensing techniques, and their application in a broad suite of change detection studies, indicate recent increases in the rates and magnitude of thermokarst including retrogressive thaw slumping, lake expansion and the transformation of frozen peatlands to collapsed wetlands. Field-based studies and modelling have enhanced the knowledge of processes and feedbacks associated with warming permafrost, changes in talik geometry and accelerated thaw slump activity, and thaw lake expansion. Hydrological processes can strongly influence the rates of thaw lake and gully development, and the degradation of frozen peatlands. Field studies and calibrated modelling efforts that investigate the drivers of thermokarst and test conceptual ideas of landscape evolution will be critical to further advance the prediction of landscape and ecosystem change. Thermokarst research provides an important context for studying the environmental implications of permafrost degradation. Hillslope thermokarst can alter the water quality of lakes and streams with implications for aquatic ecosystems. Investigation of the interactions between thermokarst and hydrologic and ecological processes has improved knowledge of the feedbacks that accelerate change or lead to stabilisation in terrestrial and thaw lake environments. Finally, the influence of permafrost thaw on soil carbon dynamics will be an important focus of thermokarst research because of feedbacks with the global climate system. Copyright © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2013.

Advances in Thermokarst Research

During the past � 50 years, the number and area of lakes have declined in several regions in boreal forests. However, there has been substantial finer-scale heterogeneity; some lakes decreased in area, some showed no trend, and others increased. The objective of this study was to identify the primary mechanisms underlying heterogeneous trends in closed-basin lake area. Eight lake characteristics (d 18 O, electrical conductivity, surface:volum ei ndex, bank slope, fl oating mat width, peat depth, thaw depth at shoreline, and thaw depth at the forest boundary) were compared for 15 lake pairs in Alaskan boreal forest where one lake had decreased in area since � 1950, and the other had not. Mean differences in characteristics between paired lakes were used to identify the most likely of nine mechanistic scenarios that combined three potential mechanisms for decreasing lake area (talik drainage, surface water evaporation, and terrestrialization) with three potential mechanisms for nondecreasing lake area (subpermafrost groundwater recharge through an open talik, stable permafrost, and thermokarst). Ap rioriexpectations of the direction of mean differences between decreasing and nondecreasing paired lakes were generated for each scenario. Decreasing lakes had significantly greater electrical conductivity, greater surface:volume indices, shallower bank slopes, wider floating mats, greater peat depths, and shallower thaw depths at the forest boundary. These results indicated that the most likely scenario was terrestrialization as the mechanism for lake area reduction combined with thermokarst as the mechanism for nondecreasing lake area. Terrestrialization and thermokarst may have been enhanced by recent warming which has both accelerated permafrost thawing and lengthened the growing season, thereby increasing plant growth,floating mat encroachment, transpiration rates, and the accumulation of organic matter in lake basins. The transition to peatlands associated with terrestrialization may provide a transient increase in carbon storage enhancing the role of northern ecosystems as major stores of global carbon.

Mechanisms influencing changes in lake area in Alaskan boreal forest

Climate-related declines in lake area have been identified across circumpolar regions and have been characterized by substantial spatial heterogeneity. An improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying lake area trends is necessary to predict where change is most likely to occur and to identify implications for high latitude reservoirs of carbon. Here, using a population of ca. 2300 lakes with statistically significant increasing and decreasing lake area trends spanning longitudinal and latitudinal gradients of ca. 1000 km in Alaska, we present evidence for a mechanism of lake area decline that involves the loss of surface water to groundwater systems. We show that lakes with significant declines in lake area were more likely to be located: (1) in burned areas; (2) on coarser, well-drained soils; and (3) farther from rivers compared to lakes that were increasing. These results indicate that postfire processes such as permafrost degradation, which also results from a warming climate, may promote lake drainage, particularly in coarse-textured soils and farther from rivers where overland flooding is less likely and downslope flow paths and negative hydraulic gradients between surface water and groundwater systems are more common. Movement of surface water to groundwater systems may lead to a deepening of subsurface flow paths and longer hydraulic residence time which has been linked to increased soil respiration and CO2 release to the atmosphere. By quantifying relationships between statewide coarse resolution maps of landscape characteristics and spatially heterogeneous responses of lakes to environmental change, we provide a means to identify at-risk lakes and landscapes and plan for a changing climate.

Landscape influences on climate-related lake shrinkage at high latitudes

The ice formed by cold-season rainfall or rain on snow (ROS) has striking impacts on the economy and ecology of Alaska. An understanding of the atmospheric drivers of ROS events is required...

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Assessment of Alaska Rain-on-Snow Events Using Dynamical Downscaling

Lake size has declined on breeding grounds for international populations of waterfowl. Our objectives were to (1) model the relationship between waterfowl species richness and lake size; (2) use the model and trends in lake size to project historical, contemporary, and future richness at 2500+ lakes; (3) evaluate mechanisms for the species–area relationship (SAR); and (4) identify species most vulnerable to shrinking lakes. Monte Carlo simulations of the richness model were used to generate projections. Correlations between richness and both lake size and habitat diversity were compared to identify mechanisms for the SAR. Patterns of nestedness were used to identify vulnerable species. Species richness was greatest at lakes that were larger, closer to rivers, had more wetlands along their perimeters and were within 5 km of a large lake. Average richness per lake was projected to decline by 11 % from 1986 to 2050 but was heterogeneous across sub-regions and lakes. Richness in sub-regions with species-rich lakes was projected to remain stable, while richness in the sub-region with species-poor lakes was projected to decline. Lake size had a greater effect on richness than did habitat diversity, suggesting that large lakes have more species because they provide more habitat but not more habitat types. The vulnerability of species to shrinking lakes was related to species rarity rather than foraging guild. Our maps of projected changes in species richness and rank-ordered list of species most vulnerable to shrinking lakes can be used to identify targets for conservation or monitoring.

Climate-induced lake drying causes heterogeneous reductions in waterfowl species richness

Programs to monitor lake area change are becoming increasingly important in high latitude regions, and their development often requires evaluating tradeoffs among different approaches in terms of accuracy of measurement, consistency across multiple users over long time periods, and efficiency. We compared three supervised methods for lake classification from Landsat imagery (density slicing, classification trees, and feature extraction). The accuracy of lake area and number estimates was evaluated relative to high-resolution aerial photography acquired within two days of satellite overpasses. The shortwave infrared band 5 was better at separating surface water from nonwater when used alone than when combined with other spectral bands. The simplest of the three methods, density slicing, performed best overall. The classification tree method resulted in the most omission errors (approx. 2×), feature extraction resulted in the most commission errors (approx. 4×), and density slicing had the least directional...

Jennifer K. Roach

Papers

Mechanisms influencing changes in lake area in Alaskan boreal forest

Landscape influences on climate-related lake shrinkage at high latitudes

Assessment of Alaska Rain-on-Snow Events Using Dynamical Downscaling

Climate-induced lake drying causes heterogeneous reductions in waterfowl species richness

Comparison of three methods for long-term monitoring of boreal lake area using Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery