Showing papers by "John D. C. Linnell published in 2022"

Smartphone app reveals that lynx avoid human recreationists on local scale, but not home range scale

Abstract: Outdoor recreation is increasing and affects habitat use and selection by wildlife. These effects are challenging to study, especially for elusive species with large spatial requirements, as it is hard to obtain reliable proxies of recreational intensity over extensive areas. Commonly used proxies, such as the density of, or distance to, hiking paths, ignore outdoor recreation occurring on other linear feature types. Here we utilized crowdsourced data from the Strava training app to obtain a large-scale proxy for pedestrian outdoor recreation intensity in southeast Norway. We used the proxy and GPS-tracking data from collared Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to investigate how recreation affects habitat selection at the home range scale and local scale by lynx during summer. We fitted resource selection functions at the two scales using conditional logistic regression. Our analysis revealed that lynx avoided areas of recreational activity at the local scale, but not at home range scale. Nonetheless, lynx frequently used areas associated with recreation, and to a greater degree at night than during the day. Our results suggest that local-scale avoidance of recreation and temporal adjustments of habitat use by lynx mitigate the need for a home range-scale response towards recreation. Scale-dependent responses and temporal adjustments in habitat use may facilitate coexistence between humans and large carnivores.

Smartphone app reveals that lynx avoid human recreationists on local scale, but not home range scale

Abstract: Outdoor recreation is increasing and affects habitat use and selection by wildlife. These effects are challenging to study, especially for elusive species with large spatial requirements, as it is hard to obtain reliable proxies of recreational intensity over extensive areas. Commonly used proxies, such as the density of, or distance to, hiking paths, ignore outdoor recreation occurring on other linear feature types. Here we utilized crowdsourced data from the Strava training app to obtain a large-scale proxy for pedestrian outdoor recreation intensity in southeast Norway. We used the proxy and GPS-tracking data from collared Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) to investigate how recreation affects habitat selection at the home range scale and local scale by lynx during summer. We fitted resource selection functions at the two scales using conditional logistic regression. Our analysis revealed that lynx avoided areas of recreational activity at the local scale, but not at home range scale. Nonetheless, lynx frequently used areas associated with recreation, and to a greater degree at night than during the day. Our results suggest that local-scale avoidance of recreation and temporal adjustments of habitat use by lynx mitigate the need for a home range-scale response towards recreation. Scale-dependent responses and temporal adjustments in habitat use may facilitate coexistence between humans and large carnivores.

The Coexistence Potential of Different Wildlife Conservation Frameworks in a Historical Perspective

Abstract: Wildlife management in contemporary society means balancing multiple demands in shared landscapes. Perhaps the greatest question facing today's policy makers and wildlife professionals is how to develop frameworks for coexistence between wildlife and the plethora of other land use interests. As a profession, the roots of wildlife management and conservation can be traced back to the 1600's, but most of the relevant frameworks that have shaped the management of wildlife over time have emerged after the mid-1800's and particularly since the 1960's. Here we examine the historical development of the main traits and concepts of a number of management and conservation frameworks that have all contributed to the multifaceted field of contemporary wildlife management and conservation in Europe and North America. We outline a chronology of concepts and ideologies with their underlying key ideas, values, and operational indicators, and make an assessment of the potential of each paradigm as a coexistence framework for dealing with wildlife. We tie this to a discussion of ethics and argue that the lack of unity in approaches is deeply embedded in the differences between rule-based (deontological) vs. results-based (consequentialist) or context dependent (particularist) ethics. We suggest that some of the conflicts between ideologies, value sets and frameworks can be resolved as an issue of scale and possibly zonation in shared landscapes. We also argue that approaches built on anthropocentrism, value pluralism and environmental pragmatism are most likely to succeed in complex socio-political landscapes. However, we caution against moral relativism and the belief that all types of cultural values are equally valid as a basis for contemporary wildlife management.

Fostering Coexistence Between People and Large Carnivores in Africa: Using a Theory of Change to Identify Pathways to Impact and Their Underlying Assumptions

Abstract: Coexistence with large carnivores poses challenges to human well-being, livelihoods, development, resource management, and policy. Even where people and carnivores have historically coexisted, traditional patterns of behavior toward large carnivores may be disrupted by wider processes of economic, social, political, and climate change. Conservation interventions have typically focused on changing behaviors of those living alongside large carnivores to promote sustainable practices. While these interventions remain important, their success is inextricably linked to broader socio-political contexts, including natural resource governance and equitable distribution of conservation-linked costs and benefits. In this context we propose a Theory of Change to identify logical pathways of action through which coexistence with large carnivores can be enhanced. We focus on Africa's dryland landscapes, known for their diverse guild of large carnivores that remain relatively widespread across the continent. We review the literature to understand coexistence and its challenges; explain our Theory of Change, including expected outcomes and pathways to impact; and discuss how our model could be implemented and operationalized. Our analysis draws on the experience of coauthors, who are scientists and practitioners, and on literature from conservation, political ecology, and anthropology to explore the challenges, local realities, and place-based conditions under which expected outcomes succeed or fail. Three pathways to impact were identified: (a) putting in place good governance harmonized across geographic scales; (b) addressing coexistence at the landscape level; and (c) reducing costs and increasing benefits of sharing a landscape with large carnivores. Coordinated conservation across the extensive, and potentially transboundary, landscapes needed by large carnivores requires harmonization of top-down approaches with bottom-up community-based conservation. We propose adaptive co-management approaches combined with processes for active community engagement and informed consent as useful dynamic mechanisms for navigating through this contested space, while enabling adaptation to climate change. Success depends on strengthening underlying enabling conditions, including governance, capacity, local empowerment, effective monitoring, and sustainable financial support. Implementing the Theory of Change requires ongoing monitoring and evaluation to inform adaptation and build confidence in the model. Overall, the model provides a flexible and practical framework that can be adapted to dynamic local socio-ecological contexts.

Editorial: Understanding Coexistence With Wildlife

Abstract: Department of Geography, Birkbeck, University of London, London, United Kingdom, 2 School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Scottsville, South Africa, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Trondheim, Norway, 4 Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, Koppang, Norway, 5 Faculty of Humanities, Oslo School of Environmental Humanities, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway, 6 Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, Mathematical, Physical and Life Sciences Division, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Timing and synchrony of birth in Eurasian lynx across Europe

Abstract: Abstract The ecology and evolution of reproductive timing and synchrony have been a topic of great interest in evolutionary ecology for decades. Originally motivated by questions related to behavioral and reproductive adaptation to environmental conditions, the topic has acquired new relevance in the face of climate change. However, there has been relatively little research on reproductive phenology in mammalian carnivores. The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) occurs across the Eurasian continent, covering three of the four main climate regions of the world. Thus, their distribution includes a large variation in climatic conditions, making it an ideal species to explore reproductive phenology. Here, we used data on multiple reproductive events from 169 lynx females across Europe. Mean birth date was May 28 (April 23 to July 1), but was ~10 days later in northern Europe than in central and southern Europe. Birth dates were relatively synchronized across Europe, but more so in the north than in the south. Timing of birth was delayed by colder May temperatures. Severe and cold weather may affect neonatal survival via hypothermia and avoiding inclement weather early in the season may select against early births, especially at northern latitudes. Overall, only about half of the kittens born survived until onset of winter but whether kittens were born relatively late or early did not affect kitten survival. Lynx are strict seasonal breeders but still show a degree of flexibility to adapt the timing of birth to surrounding environmental conditions. We argue that lynx give birth later when exposed to colder spring temperatures and have more synchronized births when the window of favorable conditions for raising kittens is shorter. This suggests that lynx are well adapted to different environmental conditions, from dry and warm climates to alpine, boreal, and arctic climates. This variation in reproductive timing will be favorable in times of climate change, as organisms with high plasticity are more likely to adjust to new environmental conditions.

Evaluating expert‐based habitat suitability information of terrestrial mammals with GPS‐tracking data

Abstract: Abstract Aim Macroecological studies that require habitat suitability data for many species often derive this information from expert opinion. However, expert‐based information is inherently subjective and thus prone to errors. The increasing availability of GPS tracking data offers opportunities to evaluate and supplement expert‐based information with detailed empirical evidence. Here, we compared expert‐based habitat suitability information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with habitat suitability information derived from GPS‐tracking data of 1,498 individuals from 49 mammal species. Location Worldwide. Time period 1998–2021. Major taxa studied Forty‐nine terrestrial mammal species. Methods Using GPS data, we estimated two measures of habitat suitability for each individual animal: proportional habitat use (proportion of GPS locations within a habitat type), and selection ratio (habitat use relative to its availability). For each individual we then evaluated whether the GPS‐based habitat suitability measures were in agreement with the IUCN data. To that end, we calculated the probability that the ranking of empirical habitat suitability measures was in agreement with IUCN's classification into suitable, marginal and unsuitable habitat types. Results IUCN habitat suitability data were in accordance with the GPS data (> 95% probability of agreement) for 33 out of 49 species based on proportional habitat use estimates and for 25 out of 49 species based on selection ratios. In addition, 37 and 34 species had a > 50% probability of agreement based on proportional habitat use and selection ratios, respectively. Main conclusions We show how GPS‐tracking data can be used to evaluate IUCN habitat suitability data. Our findings indicate that for the majority of species included in this study, it is appropriate to use IUCN habitat suitability data in macroecological studies. Furthermore, we show that GPS‐tracking data can be used to identify and prioritize species and habitat types for re‐evaluation of IUCN habitat suitability data.

Predicting kill sites of an apex predator from GPS data in different multi-prey systems.

Abstract: Kill rates are a central parameter to assess the impact of predation on prey species. An accurate estimation of kill rates requires a correct identification of kill sites, often achieved by field-checking GPS location clusters (GLCs). However, there are potential sources of error included in kill site identification, such as failing to detect GLCs that are kill sites, and misclassifying the generated GLCs (e.g. kill for non-kill) that were not field-checked. Here, we address these two sources of error using a large GPS dataset of collared Eurasian lynx, an apex predator of conservation concern in Europe, in three multi-prey systems, with different combinations of wild, semi-domestic, and domestic prey. We first used a subsampling approach to investigate how different GPS-fix schedules affect the detection of GLCs indicating kill sites. Then, we evaluated the potential of the random forest algorithm to classify GLCs as non-kills, small prey kills, and ungulate kills. We show that the number of fixes can be reduced to from 7 to 3 fixes/night without missing more than 5% of the ungulate kills, in a system composed of wild prey. Reducing the number of fixes per 24-h decreased the probability of detecting GLCs connected with kill sites, particularly those of semi-domestic or domestic prey, and small prey. Random forest successfully predicted between 73%-90% of ungulate kills but failed to classify most small prey in all systems, with sensitivity (true positive rate) lower than 65%. Additionally, removing domestic prey improved the algorithm's overall accuracy. We provide a set of recommendations for studies focusing on kill sites detection, which can be considered for other large carnivore species besides the Eurasian lynx. We recommend caution when working in systems including domestic prey, as the odds of underestimating kill rates are higher.

Quantifying the checks and balances of collaborative governance systems for adaptive carnivore management

Abstract: Abstract Recovering or threatened carnivore populations are often harvested to minimise their impact on human activities, such as livestock farming or game hunting. Increasingly, harvest quota decisions involve a set of scientific, administrative and political institutions operating at national and sub‐national levels whose interactions and collective decision‐making aim to increase the legitimacy of management and ensure population targets are met. In practice, however, assessments of how quota decisions change between these different actors and what consequences these changes have on population trends are rare. We combine a state‐space population modelling approach with an analysis of quota decisions taken at both regional and national levels between 2007 and 2018 to build a set of decision‐making models that together predict annual harvest quota values for Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Norway. We reveal a tendency for administrative decision‐makers to compensate for consistent quota increases by political actors, particularly when the lynx population size estimate is above the regional target. Using population forecasts based on the ensemble of decision‐making models, we show that such buffering of political biases ensures lynx population size remains close to regional and national targets in the long term. Our results go beyond the usual qualitative assessment of collaborative governance systems for carnivore management, revealing a system of checks and balances that, in the case of lynx in Norway, ensures both multi‐stakeholder participation and sustainable harvest quotas. Nevertheless, we highlight important inter‐regional differences in decision‐making and population forecasts, the socio‐ecological drivers of which need to be better understood to prevent future population declines. Synthesis and applications. Our work analyses the sequence of decisions leading to yearly quotas for lynx harvest in Norway, highlighting the collaborative and structural processes that together shape harvest sustainability. In doing so, we provide a predictive framework to evaluate participatory decision‐making processes in wildlife management, paving the way for scientists and decision‐makers to collaborate more widely in identifying where decision biases might lie and how institutional arrangements can be optimised to minimise them. We emphasise, however, that this is only possible if wildlife management decisions are documented and transparent.