Showing papers by "John P. Weyant published in 2006"

Overview of EMF-21: Multigas Mitigation and Climate Policy

Abstract: recently completed international collaboration under Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)1. The EMF was started in 1976 as an organized forum for discussion and evaluation of important energy and environmental issues. The EMF operates mainly around organized working groups that focus their work by comparing the results of different economic, market, and planning models. Participants in EMF are leading energy and economics experts and advisors from industry, universities, government, and other research organizations. On the topic of climate change mitigation, recent EMF working groups include: EMF-16, The Costs of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation,

Optimal Technology R&D in the Face of Climate Uncertainty

Abstract: This paper explores optimal near-term technology R&D in the face of uncertain damages caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases. The paper puts particular emphasis on understanding how optimal near-term R&D expenditures might vary based on the technologies pursued in the R&D program. The exploration is conducted in the context of varying impacts from R&D on the global abatement cost function. The R&D planning problem is considered first within a theoretical framework and is then pursued in a stylized application using the DICE model. The paper provides intuition into the circumstances under which near-term technology R&D might increase or decrease under uncertainty, thereby serving as a hedge against climate uncertainty.

Electrification of the economy and CO2 emissions mitigation

Abstract: In this article, the ratio of central station electricity to final energy is used as a measure of electrification. It is well known that this ratio tends to increase with gross domestic product. We show that not only is electrification a characteristic of a reference case with economic growth, but that it is significantly accelerated by a general limitation on carbon emissions. That is, limits on CO2 concentrations, implemented efficiently across the whole economy, result in a higher ratio of electricity to total final energy use. This result reflects the relatively greater suite of options available in reducing CO2 emissions in power generation than in other important components of the economy. Furthermore, electrification is stronger, the more stringent the constraint on CO2 emissions, although the absolute production of electricity may be either greater or smaller in the presence of a CO2 constraint, depending on the technologies available to the sector and to end-use sectors. The base technology scenario we examined was purposefully pessimistic about the evolution of central station and distributed electric technologies, lessening the degree of electrification. The better the performance of the set of options for emissions mitigation in power generation, the greater the acceleration of electrification.