Background Human-induced earthquakes have become an important topic of political and scientific discussion, owing to the concern that these events may be responsible for widespread damage and an overall increase in seismicity. It has long been known that impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations are capable of inducing earthquakes. In particular, earthquakes caused by injection have become a focal point, as new drilling and well-completion technologies enable the extraction of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes with magnitude (M) ≥ 3 in the U.S. midcontinent, 1967–2012. After decades of a steady earthquake rate (average of 21 events/year), activity increased starting in 2001 and peaked at 188 earthquakes in 2011. Human-induced earthquakes are suspected to be partially responsible for the increase. Advances Microearthquakes (that is, those with magnitudes below 2) are routinely produced as part of the hydraulic fracturing (or “fracking”) process used to stimulate the production of oil, but the process as currently practiced appears to pose a low risk of inducing destructive earthquakes. More than 100,000 wells have been subjected to fracking in recent years, and the largest induced earthquake was magnitude 3.6, which is too small to pose a serious risk. Yet, wastewater disposal by injection into deep wells poses a higher risk, because this practice can induce larger earthquakes. For example, several of the largest earthquakes in the U.S. midcontinent in 2011 and 2012 may have been triggered by nearby disposal wells. The largest of these was a magnitude 5.6 event in central Oklahoma that destroyed 14 homes and injured two people. The mechanism responsible for inducing these events appears to be the well-understood process of weakening a preexisting fault by elevating the fluid pressure. However, only a small fraction of the more than 30,000 wastewater disposal wells appears to be problematic—typically those that dispose of very large volumes of water and/or communicate pressure perturbations directly into basement faults. Outlook Injection-induced earthquakes, such as those that struck in 2011, clearly contribute to the seismic hazard. Quantifying their contribution presents difficult challenges that will require new research into the physics of induced earthquakes and the potential for inducing large-magnitude events. The petroleum industry needs clear requirements for operation, regulators must have a solid scientific basis for those requirements, and the public needs assurance that the regulations are sufficient and are being followed. The current regulatory frameworks for wastewater disposal wells were designed to protect potable water sources from contamination and do not address seismic safety. One consequence is that both the quantity and timeliness of information on injection volumes and pressures reported to regulatory agencies are far from ideal for managing earthquake risk from injection activities. In addition, seismic monitoring capabilities in many of the areas in which wastewater injection activities have increased are not capable of detecting small earthquake activity that may presage larger seismic events.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/341/6142/1225942.full.pdf

Injection-Induced Earthquakes

This chapter introduces the finite element method (FEM) as a tool for solution of classical electromagnetic problems. Although we discuss the main points in the application of the finite element method to electromagnetic design, including formulation and implementation, those who seek deeper understanding of the finite element method should consult some of the works listed in the bibliography section.

Introduction to the Finite Element Method

/pdf/landslide-inventory-maps-new-tools-for-an-old-problem-wkxin2jqxg.pdf

Landslide inventory maps: New tools for an old problem

https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5754&context=engpapers

Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land-use planning

A global database of 2,626 rainfall events that have resulted in shallow landslides and debris flows was compiled through a thorough literature search. The rainfall and landslide information was used to update the dependency of the minimum level of rainfall duration and intensity likely to result in shallow landslides and debris flows established by Nel Caine in 1980. The rainfall intensity–duration (ID) values were plotted in logarithmic coordinates, and it was established that with increased rainfall duration, the minimum average intensity likely to trigger shallow slope failures decreases linearly, in the range of durations from 10 min to 35 days. The minimum ID for the possible initiation of shallow landslides and debris flows was determined. The threshold curve was obtained from the rainfall data using an objective statistical technique. To cope with differences in the intensity and duration of rainfall likely to result in shallow slope failures in different climatic regions, the rainfall information was normalized to the mean annual precipitation and the rainy-day normal. Climate information was obtained from the global climate dataset compiled by the Climate Research Unit of the East Anglia University. The obtained global ID thresholds are significantly lower than the threshold proposed by Caine (Geogr Ann A 62:23–27, 1980), and lower than other global thresholds proposed in the literature. The new global ID thresholds can be used in a worldwide operational landslide warning system based on global precipitation measurements where local and regional thresholds are not available..

The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update

[1] We propose that the recently conceptualized suction stress characteristic curve represents the effective stress for the shear strength behavior of unsaturated soil. Mechanically, suction stress is the interparticle stress called tensile stress. The working hypothesis is that the change in the energy of soil water from its free water state is mostly consumed in suction stress. We demonstrate that the suction stress lies well within the framework of continuum mechanics where free energy is the basis for any thermodynamic formulation. Available experimental data on soil water characteristic curves and suction stress characteristic curves are used to test the hypothesis, thus validating a closed-form equation for effective stress in unsaturated soil. The proposed closed-form equation is intrinsically related to the soil water characteristic curve by two pore parameters: the air entry pressure and pore size spectrum number. Both semiquantitative and quantitative validations show that the proposed closed-form equation well represents effective stress for a variety of earth materials ranging from sands to clays. Of important practical implications are (1) the elimination of the need for any new shear strength criterion for unsaturated soil, (2) the elimination of the need for determining the Bishop's effective stress parameter χ because the new form of effective stress is solely a function of soil suction, and (3) the ready extension of all classical soil mechanics work on limit equilibrium analysis to unsaturated soil conditions.

/pdf/a-closed-form-equation-for-effective-stress-in-unsaturated-uw4ohcr7fm.pdf

A closed‐form equation for effective stress in unsaturated soil

This open-file report was prepared by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof nor any of their employees makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed in this report or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference therein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof.

/pdf/trigrs-a-fortran-program-for-transient-rainfall-infiltration-133d5neh0v.pdf

TRIGRS - A Fortran Program for Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis, Version 2.0

An unprecedented increase in earthquakes in the U.S. mid-continent began in 2009. Many of these earthquakes have been documented as induced by wastewater injection. We examine the relationship between wastewater injection and U.S. mid-continent seismicity using a newly assembled injection well database for the central and eastern United States. We find that the entire increase in earthquake rate is associated with fluid injection wells. High-rate injection wells (>300,000 barrels per month) are much more likely to be associated with earthquakes than lower-rate wells. At the scale of our study, a well’s cumulative injected volume, monthly wellhead pressure, depth, and proximity to crystalline basement do not strongly correlate with earthquake association. Managing injection rates may be a useful tool to minimize the likelihood of induced earthquakes.

/pdf/high-rate-injection-is-associated-with-the-increase-in-u-s-4ogs5yfw5n.pdf

High-rate injection is associated with the increase in U.S. mid-continent seismicity

Debris flows typically occur when intense rainfall or snowmelt triggers landslides or extensive erosion on steep, debris-mantled slopes. The flows can then grow dramatically in size and speed as they entrain material from their beds and banks, but the mechanism of this growth is unclear. Indeed, momentum conservation implies that entrainment of static material should retard the motion of the flows if friction remains unchanged. Here we use data from large-scale experiments to assess the entrainment of bed material by debris flows. We find that entrainment is accompanied by increased flow momentum and speed only if large positive pore pressures develop in wet bed sediments as the sediments are overridden by debris flows. The increased pore pressure facilitates progressive scour of the bed, reduces basal friction and instigates positive feedback that causes flow speed, mass and momentum to increase. If dryer bed sediment is entrained, however, the feedback becomes negative and flow momentum declines. We infer that analogous feedbacks could operate in other types of gravity-driven mass flow that interact with erodible beds. The mechanisms by which debris flows acquire mass and momentum as they entrain material are unclear. Large-scale experiments suggest that the pore pressure of wet bed sediment increases as the flow moves over the bed, leading to reduced friction and progressive scouring of the base.

Positive feedback and momentum growth during debris-flow entrainment of wet bed sediment

The state of knowledge and resources available to issue alerts of precipitation-induced landslides vary across the USA. Federal and state agencies currently issue warnings of the potential for shallow, rapidly moving landslides and debris flows in a few areas along the Pacific coast and for areas affected by Atlantic hurricanes. However, these agencies generally lack resources needed to provide continuous support or to expand services to other areas. Precipitation thresholds that form the basis of landslide warning systems now exist for a few areas of the USA, but the threshold rainfall amounts and durations vary over three orders of magnitude nationwide and over an order of magnitude across small geographic areas such as a county. Antecedent moisture conditions also have a significant effect, particularly in areas that have distinct wet and dry seasons. Early warnings of shallow landslides that include specific information about affected areas, probability of landslide occurrence, and expected timing are technically feasible as illustrated by a case study from the Seattle, WA area. The four-level warning scheme (Null, Outlook, Watch, Warning) defined for Seattle is based on observed or predicted exceedance of a cumulative precipitation threshold and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold combined with real-time monitoring of soil moisture. Based on analysis of historical data, threshold performance varies according to precipitation characteristics, and threshold exceedance corresponds to a given probability of landslide occurrence. Experience in Seattle during December 2004 and January 2005 illustrates some of the challenges of providing landslide early warning on the USA West Coast.

Jonathan W. Godt

Papers

A closed‐form equation for effective stress in unsaturated soil

TRIGRS - A Fortran Program for Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis, Version 2.0

High-rate injection is associated with the increase in U.S. mid-continent seismicity

Positive feedback and momentum growth during debris-flow entrainment of wet bed sediment

Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA