世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.

World energy outlook

Assessing Transformation Pathways

The use of fossil fuels as the main source of energy for most countries has caused several negative environmental impacts, such as global warming and air pollution. Air pollution causes many health problems, causing social and economic negative effects. Worldwide efforts are being made to avoid global warming consequences through the establishment of international agreements that then lead to local policies adapted to the development of each signing nation. In addition, there is a depletion of nonrenewable resources which may be scarce or nonexistent in future generations. The preservation of resources, which is a common goal of the Circular Economy strategy and of sustainable development, is not being accomplished nowadays. In this work, the calculation of indicators and mathematical and statistical analysis were applied to clarify and evidence the trends, provide information for the decision-making process, and increase public awareness. The fact that European countries do not possess abundant reserves of fossil fuels will not change, but the results of this analysis can evolve in the future. In this work, fossil fuel energy consumption, fossil fuel depletion, and their relationship with other variables, such as energy dependence and share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption, were analyzed for 29 European countries. Furthermore, it was possible to conclude that many European countries still depend heavily on fossil fuels. Significant differences were not found in what concerns gross inland consumption per capita when the Kruskal–Wallis test was applied. It was possible to estimate that by 2050 (considering Jazz scenario) it will only remain approximately 14% of oil proven reserves, 72% of coal proven reserves and 18% of gas proven reserves. Given the small reserves of European countries on fossil fuels, if they need to use them, they will fast disappear.

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Analysis of fossil fuel energy consumption and environmental impacts in european countries

Between 60% and 80% of global energy is consumed in urban areas and given the projected increase in world׳s urban population, this share is expected to further increase in the future. Continuity of energy supply in cities is affected by climate change and a growing array of other threats such as cyber attacks, terrorism, technical deficiencies, and market volatility. Determined efforts, acknowledging the interactions and interlinkages between energy and other sectors, are needed to avoid adverse consequences of disruption in energy supply. Resilience thinking is an approach to management of socio-ecological systems that aims to develop an integrated framework for bringing together the (often) fragmented, diverse research on disaster risk management. The literature on urban resilience is immense and still growing. This paper reviews literature related to energy resilience to develop a conceptual framework for assessing urban energy resilience, identify planning and design criteria that can be used for assessing urban energy resilience, and examine the relationship of these criteria with the underlying components of the conceptual framework. In the conceptual framework, it is proposed that in order to be resilient, urban energy system needs to be capable of “planning and preparing for”, “absorbing”, “recovering from”, and “adapting” to any adverse events that may happen in the future. Integrating these four abilities into the system would enable it to continuously address “availability”, “accessibility”, “affordability”, and “acceptability” as the four sustainability-related dimensions of energy. The paper explains different resilience principles associated with these abilities and sustainability dimensions. Also, different planning and design criteria were extracted from the literature and categorized into five themes: infrastructure; resources; land use, urban geometry and morphology; governance; and socio-demographic aspects and human behavior. Examination of the relationship of these criteria with the underlying components of the conceptual framework highlighted the complexity and multi-faceted nature of energy resilience. Exploration of the relevance of the identified criteria to climate change mitigation and adaptation revealed that most of the identified criteria can provide both mitigation and adaptation benefits.

Principles and criteria for assessing urban energy resilience: A literature review

http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2014-024.pdf

Three blind men and an elephant: The case of energy indices to measure energy security and energy sustainability

The role of Decentralized Distributed Generation in achieving universal rural electrification in South Asia by 2030

A SES (sustainable energy security) index for developing countries.

Mapping district heating potential under evolving thermal demand scenarios and technologies: A case study for Switzerland

This paper presents an indicator-based approach to highlight the emerging trends in energy security and sustainability for India over the past four decades. It selects four dimensions of Sustainable Energy Security (SES),namely Availability, Acceptability, Affordability and Efficiency and their corresponding indicators to represent SES. Thereafter, using quantitative data, the study establishes that certain indicators show increasing SES, while certain others show decreasing SES for India. Interpretation of these indicators leads to the conclusion that at the dimensional level ‘Availability’ and ‘Efficiency’ indicate increasing SES, while ‘Acceptability’ and ‘Affordability’ dimensions indicate decreasing SES. This study, therefore, gives valuable insights into the multi-dimensional aspects of SES and the emerging trends in SES for India.

Kapil Narula

Papers

Three blind men and an elephant: The case of energy indices to measure energy security and energy sustainability

The role of Decentralized Distributed Generation in achieving universal rural electrification in South Asia by 2030

A SES (sustainable energy security) index for developing countries.

Mapping district heating potential under evolving thermal demand scenarios and technologies: A case study for Switzerland

Is sustainable energy security of India increasing or decreasing