Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

Climate change 2001: the scientific basis

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

/pdf/bounding-the-role-of-black-carbon-in-the-climate-system-a-1fc3novd9r.pdf

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

[1] We use the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) sensor on the Nimbus 7 satellite to map the global distribution of major atmospheric dust sources with the goal of identifying common environmental characteristics The largest and most persistent sources are located in the Northern Hemisphere, mainly in a broad “dust belt” that extends from the west coast of North Africa, over the Middle East, Central and South Asia, to China There is remarkably little large-scale dust activity outside this region In particular, the Southern Hemisphere is devoid of major dust activity Dust sources, regardless of size or strength, can usually be associated with topographical lows located in arid regions with annual rainfall under 200–250 mm Although the source regions themselves are arid or hyperarid, the action of water is evident from the presence of ephemeral streams, rivers, lakes, and playas Most major sources have been intermittently flooded through the Quaternary as evidenced by deep alluvial deposits Many sources are associated with areas where human impacts are well documented, eg, the Caspian and Aral Seas, Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, southwestern North America, and the loess lands in China Nonetheless, the largest and most active sources are located in truly remote areas where there is little or no human activity Thus, on a global scale, dust mobilization appears to be dominated by natural sources Dust activity is extremely sensitive to many environmental parameters The identification of major sources will enable us to focus on critical regions and to characterize emission rates in response to environmental conditions With such knowledge we will be better able to improve global dust models and to assess the effects of climate change on emissions in the future It will also facilitate the interpretation of the paleoclimate record based on dust contained in ocean sediments and ice cores

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2000RG000095

Environmental characterization of global sources of atmospheric soil dust identified with the nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (toms) absorbing aerosol product

This review is written with the goal of informing public health concerns related to nanoscience, while raising awareness of nanomaterials toxicity among scientists and manufacturers handling them. We show that humans have always been exposed to nanoparticles and dust from natural sources and human activities, the recent development of industry and combustion-based engine transportation profoundly increasing anthropogenic nanoparticulate pollution. The key to understanding the toxicity of nanoparticles is that their minute size, smaller than cells and cellular organelles, allows them to penetrate these basic biological structures, disrupting their normal function. Among diseases associated with nanoparticles are asthma, bronchitis, lung cancer, neurodegenerative diseases (such as Parkinson`s and Alzheimer`s diseases), Crohn`s disease, colon cancer. Nanoparticles that enter the circulatory system are related to occurrence of arteriosclerosis, and blood clots, arrhythmia, heart diseases, and ultimately cardiac death. We show that possible adverse effects of nanoparticles on human health depend on individual factors such as genetics and existing disease, as well as exposure, and nanoparticle chemistry, size, shape, and agglomeration state. The faster we will understand their causes and mechanisms, the more likely we are to find cures for diseases associated with nanoparticle exposure. We foresee a future with better-informed, and hopefully more cautious manipulation of engineered nanomaterials, as well as the development of laws and policies for safely managing all aspects of nanomaterial manufacturing, industrial and commercial use, and recycling.

Nanomaterials and nanoparticles: Sources and toxicity

This review is presented as a common foundation for scientists interested in nanoparticles, their origin, activity, and biological toxicity. It is written with the goal of rationalizing and informing public health concerns related to this sometimes-strange new science of “nano,” while raising awareness of nanomaterials’ toxicity among scientists and manufacturers handling them. We show that humans have always been exposed to tiny particles via dust storms, volcanic ash, and other natural processes, and that our bodily systems are well adapted to protect us from these potentially harmful intruders. The reticuloendothelial system, in particular, actively neutralizes and eliminates foreign matter in the body, including viruses and nonbiological particles. Particles originating from human activities have existed for millennia, e.g., smoke from combustion and lint from garments, but the recent development of industry and combustion-based engine transportation has profoundly increased anthropogenic particulate pollution. Significantly, technological advancement has also changed the character of particulate pollution, increasing the proportion of nanometer-sized particles-“nanoparticles”-and expanding the variety of chemical compositions. Recent epidemiological studies have shown a strong correlation between particulate air pollution levels, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, various cancers, and mortality. Adverse effects of nanoparticles on human health depend on individual factors such as genetics and existing disease, as well as exposure, and nanoparticle chemistry, size, shape, agglomeration state, and electromagnetic properties. Animal and human studies show that inhaled nanoparticles are less efficiently removed than larger particles by the macrophage clearance mechanisms in the lungs, causing lung damage, and that nanoparticles can translocate through the circulatory, lymphatic, and nervous systems to many tissues and organs, including the brain. The key to understanding the toxicity of nanoparticles is that their minute size, smaller than cells and cellular organelles, allows them to penetrate these basic biological structures, disrupting their normal function. Examples of toxic effects include tissue inflammation, and altered cellular redox balance toward oxidation, causing abnormal function or cell death. The manipulation of matter at the scale of atoms, “nanotechnology,” is creating many new materials with characteristics not always easily predicted from current knowledge. Within the nearly limitless diversity of these materials, some happen to be toxic to biological systems, others are relatively benign, while others confer health benefits. Some of these materials have desirable characteristics for industrial applications, as nanostructured materials often exhibit beneficial properties, from UV absorbance in sunscreen to oil-less lubrication of motors. A rational science-based approach is needed to minimize harm caused by these materials, while supporting continued study and appropriate industrial development. As current knowledge of the toxicology of “bulk” materials may not suffice in reliably predicting toxic forms of nanoparticles, ongoing and expanded study of “nanotoxicity” will be necessary. For nanotechnologies with clearly associated health risks, intelligent design of materials and devices is needed to derive the benefits of these new technologies while limiting adverse health impacts. Human exposure to toxic nanoparticles can be reduced through identifying creation-exposure pathways of toxins, a study that may someday soon unravel the mysteries of diseases such as Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s. Reduction in fossil fuel combustion would have a large impact on global human exposure to nanoparticles, as would limiting deforestation and desertification. While nanotoxicity is a relatively new concept to science, this review reveals the result of life’s long history of evolution in the presence of nanoparticles, and how the human body, in particular, has adapted to defend itself against nanoparticulate intruders.

https://avs.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1116/1.2815690

Evaluated Weather Research and Forecasting model inline with chemistry (WRF/Chem) simulations of the 2009 Crazy Mountain Complex wildfire in Interior Alaska served as a testbed for typical Alaska wildfire-smoke conditions. A virtual unmanned air vehicle (UAV) sampled temperatures, dewpoint temperatures, primary inert and reactive gases and particular matter of different sizes as well as secondary pollutants from the WRF/Chem results using different sampling patterns, altitudes and speeds to investigate the impact of the sampling design on obtained mean distributions. In this experimental design, the WRF/Chem data served as the “grand truth” to assess the mean distributions from sampling. During frontal passage, the obtained mean distributions were sensitive to the flight patterns, speeds and heights. For inert constituents mean distributions from sampling agreed with the “grand truth” within a factor of two at 1000 m. Mean distributions of gases involved in photochemistry differed among flight patterns except for ozone. The diurnal cycle of these gases’ concentrations led to overestimation (underestimation) of 20 h means in areas of high (low) concentrations as compared to the “grand truth.” The mean ozone distribution was sensitive to the speed of the virtual UAV. Particulate matter showed the strongest sensitivity to the flight patterns, especially during precipitation.

/pdf/theoretical-investigations-on-mapping-mean-distributions-of-1d76jzroiw.pdf

Theoretical Investigations on Mapping Mean Distributions of Particulate Matter, Inert, Reactive, and Secondary Pollutants from Wildfires by Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs)

The clouds of the middle and upper troposphere are difficult to treat in models because of their variable optical properties. Based on extensive cirrus, altostratus, and altocumulus cloud remote sensing measurements and model simulations, we offer parameterizations of visible optical depth and infrared layer emittance as functions of both cloud temperature and vertical thickness to facilitate climate modeling research. We find significant differences in the emittance relations that depend on cloud phase, but quite similar optical depth versus emittance relations. In comparison to previous midlatitude cirrus results, our findings lead to lower atmospheric heating rates.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2000GL012236

Parameterization of the radiative properties of midlatitude high and middle level clouds

For thousands of years the image of the rainbow was pecked and painted by native Americans onto the rocks of the Great Basin and the Southwest. This long-lived tradition, which transcended major developments in lifestyles and cultures, underscores the important symbolic significance of the rainbow to the inhabitants of this arid region. The rainbow rock art depictions were usually associated with humanlike ceremonial figures, snakes, clouds, rain, and lightning bolts, suggesting that the rainbow symbol was employed as part of an elaborate sacred tradition. Although such ceremonial usage of the rainbow image tends to lead to abstraction and symbolic representation, there are examples, including a properly colorized rainbow painting from central Utah (approximately a thousand years old), that indicate observationally based rainbow reproductions of relatively great antiquity.

Rainbows in the Indian rock art of desert western America.

What's the connection between cirrus clouds, halos, coronas, and arcs/circles? It appears to be more complex than previously thought, and may depend in large part on the geographic locations of the clouds.

Cirrus clouds and halos: A closer look

D. E. Atkinson, K. Sassen, M. Hayashi, C. F. Cahill, G. Shaw, D. Harrigan, and H. Fuelberg International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 930 Koyukuk Drive, Fairbanks, Alaska, 99775, USA Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 930 Koyukuk Drive, Fairbanks, Alaska, 99775, USA Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Drive, Fairbanks, Alaska, 99775, USA Department of Earth System Science, University of Fukuoka, 8-19-1 Nanakuma, Jonan-ku, Fukuoka, 814-0180, Japan Department of Physics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 755920, Fairbanks, AK 99775-5920, USA Department of Chemistry, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 755920, Fairbanks, AK 99775-5920, USA

/pdf/arctas-a-ground-based-observational-campaign-and-3z0sl9cdg6.pdf

Kenneth Sassen

Papers

Theoretical Investigations on Mapping Mean Distributions of Particulate Matter, Inert, Reactive, and Secondary Pollutants from Wildfires by Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs)

Parameterization of the radiative properties of midlatitude high and middle level clouds

Rainbows in the Indian rock art of desert western America.

Cirrus clouds and halos: A closer look

ARCTAS-A ground-based observational campaign and meteorological context, interior Alaska, April 2008