Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

Climate change 2001: the scientific basis

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

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Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

[1] We use the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) sensor on the Nimbus 7 satellite to map the global distribution of major atmospheric dust sources with the goal of identifying common environmental characteristics The largest and most persistent sources are located in the Northern Hemisphere, mainly in a broad “dust belt” that extends from the west coast of North Africa, over the Middle East, Central and South Asia, to China There is remarkably little large-scale dust activity outside this region In particular, the Southern Hemisphere is devoid of major dust activity Dust sources, regardless of size or strength, can usually be associated with topographical lows located in arid regions with annual rainfall under 200–250 mm Although the source regions themselves are arid or hyperarid, the action of water is evident from the presence of ephemeral streams, rivers, lakes, and playas Most major sources have been intermittently flooded through the Quaternary as evidenced by deep alluvial deposits Many sources are associated with areas where human impacts are well documented, eg, the Caspian and Aral Seas, Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, southwestern North America, and the loess lands in China Nonetheless, the largest and most active sources are located in truly remote areas where there is little or no human activity Thus, on a global scale, dust mobilization appears to be dominated by natural sources Dust activity is extremely sensitive to many environmental parameters The identification of major sources will enable us to focus on critical regions and to characterize emission rates in response to environmental conditions With such knowledge we will be better able to improve global dust models and to assess the effects of climate change on emissions in the future It will also facilitate the interpretation of the paleoclimate record based on dust contained in ocean sediments and ice cores

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2000RG000095

Environmental characterization of global sources of atmospheric soil dust identified with the nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (toms) absorbing aerosol product

This review is written with the goal of informing public health concerns related to nanoscience, while raising awareness of nanomaterials toxicity among scientists and manufacturers handling them. We show that humans have always been exposed to nanoparticles and dust from natural sources and human activities, the recent development of industry and combustion-based engine transportation profoundly increasing anthropogenic nanoparticulate pollution. The key to understanding the toxicity of nanoparticles is that their minute size, smaller than cells and cellular organelles, allows them to penetrate these basic biological structures, disrupting their normal function. Among diseases associated with nanoparticles are asthma, bronchitis, lung cancer, neurodegenerative diseases (such as Parkinson`s and Alzheimer`s diseases), Crohn`s disease, colon cancer. Nanoparticles that enter the circulatory system are related to occurrence of arteriosclerosis, and blood clots, arrhythmia, heart diseases, and ultimately cardiac death. We show that possible adverse effects of nanoparticles on human health depend on individual factors such as genetics and existing disease, as well as exposure, and nanoparticle chemistry, size, shape, and agglomeration state. The faster we will understand their causes and mechanisms, the more likely we are to find cures for diseases associated with nanoparticle exposure. We foresee a future with better-informed, and hopefully more cautious manipulation of engineered nanomaterials, as well as the development of laws and policies for safely managing all aspects of nanomaterial manufacturing, industrial and commercial use, and recycling.

Nanomaterials and nanoparticles: Sources and toxicity

This review is presented as a common foundation for scientists interested in nanoparticles, their origin, activity, and biological toxicity. It is written with the goal of rationalizing and informing public health concerns related to this sometimes-strange new science of “nano,” while raising awareness of nanomaterials’ toxicity among scientists and manufacturers handling them. We show that humans have always been exposed to tiny particles via dust storms, volcanic ash, and other natural processes, and that our bodily systems are well adapted to protect us from these potentially harmful intruders. The reticuloendothelial system, in particular, actively neutralizes and eliminates foreign matter in the body, including viruses and nonbiological particles. Particles originating from human activities have existed for millennia, e.g., smoke from combustion and lint from garments, but the recent development of industry and combustion-based engine transportation has profoundly increased anthropogenic particulate pollution. Significantly, technological advancement has also changed the character of particulate pollution, increasing the proportion of nanometer-sized particles-“nanoparticles”-and expanding the variety of chemical compositions. Recent epidemiological studies have shown a strong correlation between particulate air pollution levels, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, various cancers, and mortality. Adverse effects of nanoparticles on human health depend on individual factors such as genetics and existing disease, as well as exposure, and nanoparticle chemistry, size, shape, agglomeration state, and electromagnetic properties. Animal and human studies show that inhaled nanoparticles are less efficiently removed than larger particles by the macrophage clearance mechanisms in the lungs, causing lung damage, and that nanoparticles can translocate through the circulatory, lymphatic, and nervous systems to many tissues and organs, including the brain. The key to understanding the toxicity of nanoparticles is that their minute size, smaller than cells and cellular organelles, allows them to penetrate these basic biological structures, disrupting their normal function. Examples of toxic effects include tissue inflammation, and altered cellular redox balance toward oxidation, causing abnormal function or cell death. The manipulation of matter at the scale of atoms, “nanotechnology,” is creating many new materials with characteristics not always easily predicted from current knowledge. Within the nearly limitless diversity of these materials, some happen to be toxic to biological systems, others are relatively benign, while others confer health benefits. Some of these materials have desirable characteristics for industrial applications, as nanostructured materials often exhibit beneficial properties, from UV absorbance in sunscreen to oil-less lubrication of motors. A rational science-based approach is needed to minimize harm caused by these materials, while supporting continued study and appropriate industrial development. As current knowledge of the toxicology of “bulk” materials may not suffice in reliably predicting toxic forms of nanoparticles, ongoing and expanded study of “nanotoxicity” will be necessary. For nanotechnologies with clearly associated health risks, intelligent design of materials and devices is needed to derive the benefits of these new technologies while limiting adverse health impacts. Human exposure to toxic nanoparticles can be reduced through identifying creation-exposure pathways of toxins, a study that may someday soon unravel the mysteries of diseases such as Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s. Reduction in fossil fuel combustion would have a large impact on global human exposure to nanoparticles, as would limiting deforestation and desertification. While nanotoxicity is a relatively new concept to science, this review reveals the result of life’s long history of evolution in the presence of nanoparticles, and how the human body, in particular, has adapted to defend itself against nanoparticulate intruders.

https://avs.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1116/1.2815690

Aerosol loading over Interior Alaska displays a strong seasonality, with pristine conditions generally prevailing during winter months. Long term aerosol research from the University of Alaska Fairbanks indicates that the period around April typically marks the beginning of the transition from winter to summer conditions. In April 2008, the NASA-sponsored "Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites" (ARCTAS) field campaign was conducted to analyze incursions of aerosols transported over Alaska and the Canadian North. In and around Fairbanks, Alaska, data concerning aerosol characteristics were gathered by polarization (0.693 μm) lidar, DRUM Impactor sampler, and balloon-borne optical particle counter. These data provide information on the vertical distribution and type of aerosol, their size distributions, the chemical nature of aerosol observed at the surface, and timing of aerosol loading. A detailed synoptic analysis placed these observations into their transport and source-region context. Evidence suggests four major aerosol loading periods in the 25 March–30 April 2008 timeframe: a period during which typical Arctic haze conditions prevailed, several days of extremely clear conditions, rapid onset of a period dominated by Asian dust with some smoke, and a period dominated by Siberian wildfire smoke. A focused case study analysis conducted on 19 April 2008 using a balloon-borne optical particle counter suggests that, on this day, the majority of the suspended particulate matter consisted of coarse mode desiccated aerosol having undergone long-range transport. Backtrack trajectory analysis suggests aged Siberian wildfire smoke. In the last week of April, concentrations gradually decreased as synoptic conditions shifted away from favoring transport to Alaska. An important result is a strong suggestion of an Asian dust incursion in mid-April that was not well identified in other ARCTAS measurements. The lidar and OPC-sonde unambiguously discern aerosols height stratification patterns indicative of long range transport. Identification of a dust component is suggested by DRUM sampler results, which indicate crustal species, and supported by synoptic and trajectory analysis, which indicates both a source-region lifting event and appropriate air-mass pathways.

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Aerosol properties over Interior Alaska from lidar, DRUM Impactor sampler, and OPC-sonde measurements and their meteorological context during ARCTAS-A, April 2008

On the evening of 25 November 1998, a cirrus cloud revealing the pastel colors of the iridescence phenomenon was photographed and studied by a polarization lidar system at the University of Utah Facility for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (FARS). The diffraction of sunlight falling on relatively minute cloud particles, which display spatial gradients in size, is the cause of iridescence. According to the 14-year study of midlatitude cirrus clouds at FARS, cirrus rarely produce even poor iridescent patches, making this particularly long-lived and vivid occurrence unique. In this unusually high (13.2–14.4-km) and cold (-69.7 ° to -75.5°) tropopause-topped cirrus cloud, iridescence was noted from ∼6.0° to ∼13.5° from the Sun. On the basis of simple diffraction theory, this indicates the presence of particles of 2.5–5.5-μm effective diameter. The linear depolarization ratios of δ = 0.5 measured by the lidar verify that the cloud particles were nonspherical ice crystals. The demonstration that ice clouds can generate iridescence has led to the conclusion that iridescence is rarely seen in midlatitude cirrus clouds because populations of such small particles do not exist for long in the presence of the relatively high water-vapor supersaturations needed for ice-particle nucleation.

Cirrus cloud iridescence: a rare case study.

In western American rock art the concentric circle symbol, which is widely regarded as a sun symbol, is ubiquitous. We provide evidence from Archaic and Fremont Indian rock art sites in northwestern Utah that at least one depiction was motivated by an observation of a complex halo display. Cirrus cloud optical displays are linked in both folklore and meteorology to precipitation-producing weather situations, which, in combination with an abundance of weather-related rock art symbolism, indicate that such images reflected the ceremonial concerns of the indigenous cultures for ensuring adequate precipitation. As has been shown to be the case with rock art rainbows, conventionalization of the halo image may have resulted in simple patterns that lacked recognizable details of atmospheric optical phenomena. However, in one case in which an Archaic-style petroglyph (probably 1500 yr or more old) satisfactorily reproduced a complicated halo display that contained parhelia and tangent arcs, sufficient geometric information is rendered to indicate a solar elevation angle of approx. 40 deg. at the time of observation.

Possible halo depictions in the prehistoric rock art of Utah

Toward an Empirical Definition of Virga: Comments on “Is Virga Rain that Evaporates before Reaching the Ground?”

Employing a new approach based on combined Raman lidar and millimeter-wave radar measurements and a parameterization of the infrared absorption coefficient σa (km−1) in terms of retrieved cloud microphysics, a statistical relation between σa and cirrus cloud temperature is derived. The relations σa = 0.3949 + 5.3886 × 10−3T + 1.526 × 10−5T2 for ambient temperature T(°C) and σa = 0.2896 + 3.409 × 10−3Tm for midcloud temperature Tm(°C) are found using a second-order polynomial fit. Comparison with two σa-versus-Tm relations obtained primarily from midlatitude cirrus using the combined lidar–infrared radiometer (LIRAD) approach reveals significant differences. However, it is shown that this reflects both the previous convention used in curve fitting (i.e., σa → 0 at ∼−80°C) and the types of clouds included in the datasets. Without such constraints, convergence is found in the three independent remote sensing datasets within the range of conditions considered to be valid for cirrus (i.e., cloud visib...

Kenneth Sassen

Papers

Aerosol properties over Interior Alaska from lidar, DRUM Impactor sampler, and OPC-sonde measurements and their meteorological context during ARCTAS-A, April 2008

Cirrus cloud iridescence: a rare case study.

Possible halo depictions in the prehistoric rock art of Utah

Toward an Empirical Definition of Virga: Comments on “Is Virga Rain that Evaporates before Reaching the Ground?”

Parameterization of Infrared Absorption in Midlatitude Cirrus Clouds