Theory of fuzzy integrals and its applications

This study tests the ability of five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), forced with observed climatology and atmospheric CO2, to model the contemporary global carbon cycle. The DGVMs are also coupled to a fast ‘climate analogue model’, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and run into the future for four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1FI, A2, B1, B2. Results show that all DGVMs are consistent with the contemporary global land carbon budget. Under the more extreme projections of future environmental change, the responses of the DGVMs diverge markedly. In particular, large uncertainties are associated with the response of tropical vegetation to drought and boreal ecosystems to elevated temperatures and changing soil moisture status. The DGVMs show more divergence in their response to regional changes in climate than to increases in atmospheric CO2 content. All models simulate a release of land carbon in response to climate, when physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on plant production are not considered, implying a positive terrestrial climate-carbon cycle feedback. All DGVMs simulate a reduction in global net primary production (NPP) and a decrease in soil residence time in the tropics and extra-tropics in response to future climate. When both counteracting effects of climate and atmospheric CO2 on ecosystem function are considered, all the DGVMs simulate cumulative net land carbon uptake over the 21st century for the four SRES emission scenarios. However, for the most extreme A1FI emissions scenario, three out of five DGVMs simulate an annual net source of CO2 from the land to the atmosphere in the final decades of the 21st century. For this scenario, cumulative land uptake differs by 494 Pg C among DGVMs over the 21st century. This uncertainty is equivalent to over 50 years of anthropogenic emissions at current levels.

Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate‐carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs)

Received 23 December 2005; revised 6 February 2006; accepted 8 February 2006; published 22 March 2006. [1] Metabolism and phenology of Amazon rainforests significantly influence global dynamics of climate, carbon and water, but remain poorly understood. We analyzed Amazon vegetation phenology at multiple scales with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite measurements from 2000 to 2005. MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, an index of canopy photosynthetic capacity) increased by 25% with sunlight during the dry season across Amazon forests, opposite to ecosystem model predictions that water limitation should cause dry season declines in forest canopy photosynthesis. In contrast to intact forests, areas converted to pasture showed dry-season declines in EVI-derived photosynthetic capacity, presumably because removal of deep-rooted forest trees reduced access to deep soil water. Local canopy photosynthesis measured from eddy flux towers in both a rainforest and forest conversion site confirm our interpretation of satellite data, and suggest that basin-wide carbon fluxes can be constrained by integrating remote sensing and local flux measurements. Citation: Huete, A. R., K. Didan, Y. E. Shimabukuro, P. Ratana, S. R. Saleska, L. R. Hutyra, W. Yang, R. R. Nemani, and R. Myneni (2006), Amazon rainforests green-up with sunlight in dry season, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06405, doi:10.1029/2005GL025583.

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Amazon rainforests green‐up with sunlight in dry season

Understanding and mitigating the impact of an ever-increasing population and global economic activity on tropical forests is one of the great challenges currently facing biologists, conservationists and policy makers. Tropical forests currently face obvious regional changes, both negative and positive, and uncertain global changes. Although deforestation rates have increased to unprecedented levels, natural secondary succession has reclaimed approximately 15% of the area deforested during the 1990s. Governments have also protected 18% of the remaining tropical moist forest; however, unsustainable hunting continues to threaten many keystone mammal and bird species. The structure and dynamics of old-growth forests appear to be rapidly changing, suggesting that there is a pantropical response to global anthropogenic forcing, although the evidence comes almost exclusively from censuses of tree plots and is controversial. Here, I address ongoing anthropogenic change in tropical forests and suggest how these forests might respond to increasing anthropogenic pressure.

https://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/pdf/S0169-5347(05)00251-X.pdf

Tropical Forests in a Changing Environment

[1] The Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3) is the land component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). CLM3 has energy and water biases resulting from deficiencies in some of its canopy and soil parameterizations related to hydrological processes. Recent research by the community that utilizes CLM3 and the family of CCSM models has indicated several promising approaches to alleviating these biases. This paper describes the implementation of a selected set of these parameterizations and their effects on the simulated hydrological cycle. The modifications consist of surface data sets based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer products, new parameterizations for canopy integration, canopy interception, frozen soil, soil water availability, and soil evaporation, a TOPMODEL-based model for surface and subsurface runoff, a groundwater model for determining water table depth, and the introduction of a factor to simulate nitrogen limitation on plant productivity. The results from a set of offline simulations were compared with observed data for runoff, river discharge, soil moisture, and total water storage to assess the performance of the new model (referred to as CLM3.5). CLM3.5 exhibits significant improvements in its partitioning of global evapotranspiration (ET) which result in wetter soils, less plant water stress, increased transpiration and photosynthesis, and an improved annual cycle of total water storage. Phase and amplitude of the runoff annual cycle is generally improved. Dramatic improvements in vegetation biogeography result when CLM3.5 is coupled to a dynamic global vegetation model. Lower than observed soil moisture variability in the rooting zone is noted as a remaining deficiency.

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Improvements to the Community Land Model and their impact on the hydrological cycle

(1) Moist tropical forests in Amazonia and elsewhere are subjected to increasingly severe drought episodes through the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and possibly through deforestation-driven reductions in rainfall. The effects of this trend on tropical forest canopy dynamics, emissions of greenhouse gases, and other ecological functions are potentially large but poorly understood. We established a throughfall exclusion experiment in an east-central Amazon forest (Tapajos National Forest, Brazil) to help understand these effects. After 1-year intercalibration period of two 1-ha forest plots, we installed plastic panels and wooden gutters in the understory of one of the plots, thereby excluding � 890 mm of throughfall during the exclusion period of 2000 (late January to early August) and � 680 mm thus far in the exclusion period of 2001 (early January to late May). Average daily throughfall reaching the soil during the exclusion period in 2000 was 4.9 and 8.3 mm in the treatment and control plots and was 4.8 and 8.1 mm in 2001, respectively. During the first exclusion period, surface soil water content (0-2 m) declined by � 100 mm, while deep soil water (2-11 m) was unaffected. During the second exclusion period, which began shortly after the dry season when soil water content was low, surface and deep soil water content declined by � 140 and 160 mm, respectively. Although this depletion of soil water provoked no detectable increase in leaf drought stress (i.e., no reduction in predawn leaf water potential), photosynthetic capacity declined for some species, the canopy thinned (greater canopy openness and lower leaf area index) during the second exclusion period, stem radial growth of trees <15 m tall declined, and fine litterfall declined in the treatment plot, as did tree fruiting. Aboveground net primary productivity (NPP) (stemwood increment and fine litter production) declined by one fourth, from 15.1 to 11.4 Mg ha � 1 yr � 1 , in the treatment plot and decreased slightly, from 11.9 to 11.5 Mg ha � 1 yr � 1 , in the control plot. Stem respiration varied seasonally and was correlated with stem radial growth but showed no treatment response. The fastest response to the throughfall exclusion, and the surface soil moisture deficits that it provoked, was found in the soil itself. The treatment reduced N2O emissions and increased CH4 consumption relative to the control plot, presumably in response to the improved soil aeration that is associated with soil drying. Our hypothesis that NO emissions would increase following exclusion was not supported. The conductivity and alkalinity of water percolating through the litter layer and through the mineral soil to a depth of 200 cm was higher in the treatment plot, perhaps because of the lower volume of water that was moving through these soil layers in this plot. Decomposition of the litter showed no difference between plots. In sum, the small soil water reductions provoked during the first 2 years of partial throughfall exclusion were sufficient to lower aboveground NPP, including the stemwood increment that determines the amount of carbon stored in the

Laécio Carvalho de Barros

Papers

The effects of partial throughfall exclusion on canopy processes, aboveground production, and biogeochemistry of an Amazon forest

Fuzzy modelling in population dynamics

Fuzzy differential equations and the extension principle

A First Course in Fuzzy Logic, Fuzzy Dynamical Systems, and Biomathematics

A note on Zadeh's extensions☆