Problem Given the number of times in which an unknown event has happened and failed: Required the chance that the probability of its happening in a single trial lies somewhere between any two degrees of probability that can be named. SECTION 1 Definition 1. Several events are inconsistent, when if one of them happens, none of the rest can. 2. Two events are contrary when one, or other of them must; and both together cannot happen. 3. An event is said to fail, when it cannot happen; or, which comes to the same thing, when its contrary has happened. 4. An event is said to be determined when it has either happened or failed. 5. The probability of any event is the ratio between the value at which an expectation depending on the happening of the event ought to be computed, and the value of the thing expected upon it’s 2 happening.

An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. [Facsimil]

Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs (2nd ed.), by F. V. Jenson and T. D. Nielsen

Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures

The rapid expansions of urban rail networks are faced with the growing number of disruptions caused by the complex rail signaling systems, incorrect driving behaviors, and extreme weather. Since urban rail systems are inherently complex and many of these disruptions are usually uncertain and inevitable, the rail managers have gradually paid more attention to the ability to withstand and quickly recover. Nevertheless, only a small number of recent developments have tried to address the ability of an urban rail system to recover from disruptions while considering the inherent structures. In this work, we propose a hybrid knowledge-based and data-driven approach for quantitative analysis of resilience. The aim is to model the causal relationships to quantify the importance of different perturbations to the overall resilience criteria. A set of key features related to the risk assessment and system resilience are summarized according to the historical data in Beijing Metro. Then, we develop a training procedure based on the structure of BN and historical data. Finally, we embed this hybrid approach into software that is applied to Beijing Metro. The results demonstrate the quantitative relationships between system resilience and different types of events. 

/pdf/quantitative-analysis-for-resilience-based-urban-rail-cc92yz08.pdf

Quantitative analysis for resilience-based urban rail systems: A hybrid knowledge-based and data-driven approach

Modeling Time-varying Reliability and Resilience of Deteriorating Infrastructure

The state of engineering systems changes in time due to the effect of gradual (e.g. corrosion, fatigue) and shock deterioration (e.g. earthquakes, floods, and tornados). At specified moments, for e...

Quantifying the value of information from inspecting and monitoring engineering systems subject to gradual and shock deterioration

This work was supported in part by the MAE Center at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) through the Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning under Award No 70NANB15H044. Opinions and findings presented are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.

/pdf/stochastic-differential-equations-for-the-deterioration-1p4db432nk.pdf

Stochastic Differential Equations for the Deterioration Processes of Engineering Systems

Decision makers face several challenges in the aftermath of a disastrous event. Emergency operations such as traffic restrictions, bridge closures and immediate repairs might have to be scheduled in order to keep an appropriate level of safety. The state of the infrastructure after the occurrence of the seismic event can be predicted based on the a priori knowledge about the system, and decisions may be taken based on this knowledge. This is generally done by minimizing the expected cost of the different plans of action, considering both direct (e.g. failure of a component) and indirect costs (e.g. costs coming from diverted traffic after a bridge closure). However, inspections of selected critical components can provide insight into the actual state of the system and consequently change the chosen plan of action for the decision makers. Different methods of inspections come at different costs, information and uncertainties. It is important to decide whether or not inspections should be done and if so select the most appropriate inspection method so that the associated costs do not overcome the benefits that would be obtained by performing it. Moreover, advanced monitoring techniques that are able to investigate the state of the system over time (such as sensor monitoring) can provide additional information about the way the system is evolving. This information can in turn be used to update the knowledge about the state of the system before the occurrence of a disastrous event, further reducing the chance of taking the wrong managing decision. Before installation, decision makers must properly evaluate the costs associated to these monitoring techniques, to decide whether the additional information overcomes their cost. In this work, we propose a general framework to evaluate the Value of Information of selected inspection procedures considering the possible information from structural health monitoring (SHM) of system. The proposed framework will be applied to a case study of a two-span reinforced concrete bridge. 1

Leandro Iannacone

Papers

Modeling Time-varying Reliability and Resilience of Deteriorating Infrastructure

Quantifying the value of information from inspecting and monitoring engineering systems subject to gradual and shock deterioration

Stochastic Differential Equations for the Deterioration Processes of Engineering Systems

Decision making based on the value of information of different inspection methods

Numerical solution of the Fokker–Planck equation using physics-based mixture models