Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study.

Objective:To provide an update to the “Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock,” last published in 2008.Design:A consensus committee of 68 international experts representing 30 international organizations was convened. Nominal groups were assembled at ke

Surviving sepsis campaign: international guidelines for management of severe sepsis and septic shock: 2012.

To provide an update to the “Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock,” last published in 2008. A consensus committee of 68 international experts representing 30 international organizations was convened. Nominal groups were assembled at key international meetings (for those committee members attending the conference). A formal conflict of interest policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. The entire guidelines process was conducted independent of any industry funding. A stand-alone meeting was held for all subgroup heads, co- and vice-chairs, and selected individuals. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among subgroups and among the entire committee served as an integral part of the development. The authors were advised to follow the principles of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system to guide assessment of quality of evidence from high (A) to very low (D) and to determine the strength of recommendations as strong (1) or weak (2). The potential drawbacks of making strong recommendations in the presence of low-quality evidence were emphasized. Recommendations were classified into three groups: (1) those directly targeting severe sepsis; (2) those targeting general care of the critically ill patient and considered high priority in severe sepsis; and (3) pediatric considerations. Key recommendations and suggestions, listed by category, include: early quantitative resuscitation of the septic patient during the first 6 h after recognition (1C); blood cultures before antibiotic therapy (1C); imaging studies performed promptly to confirm a potential source of infection (UG); administration of broad-spectrum antimicrobials therapy within 1 h of the recognition of septic shock (1B) and severe sepsis without septic shock (1C) as the goal of therapy; reassessment of antimicrobial therapy daily for de-escalation, when appropriate (1B); infection source control with attention to the balance of risks and benefits of the chosen method within 12 h of diagnosis (1C); initial fluid resuscitation with crystalloid (1B) and consideration of the addition of albumin in patients who continue to require substantial amounts of crystalloid to maintain adequate mean arterial pressure (2C) and the avoidance of hetastarch formulations (1B); initial fluid challenge in patients with sepsis-induced tissue hypoperfusion and suspicion of hypovolemia to achieve a minimum of 30 mL/kg of crystalloids (more rapid administration and greater amounts of fluid may be needed in some patients (1C); fluid challenge technique continued as long as hemodynamic improvement is based on either dynamic or static variables (UG); norepinephrine as the first-choice vasopressor to maintain mean arterial pressure ≥65 mmHg (1B); epinephrine when an additional agent is needed to maintain adequate blood pressure (2B); vasopressin (0.03 U/min) can be added to norepinephrine to either raise mean arterial pressure to target or to decrease norepinephrine dose but should not be used as the initial vasopressor (UG); dopamine is not recommended except in highly selected circumstances (2C); dobutamine infusion administered or added to vasopressor in the presence of (a) myocardial dysfunction as suggested by elevated cardiac filling pressures and low cardiac output, or (b) ongoing signs of hypoperfusion despite achieving adequate intravascular volume and adequate mean arterial pressure (1C); avoiding use of intravenous hydrocortisone in adult septic shock patients if adequate fluid resuscitation and vasopressor therapy are able to restore hemodynamic stability (2C); hemoglobin target of 7–9 g/dL in the absence of tissue hypoperfusion, ischemic coronary artery disease, or acute hemorrhage (1B); low tidal volume (1A) and limitation of inspiratory plateau pressure (1B) for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); application of at least a minimal amount of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) in ARDS (1B); higher rather than lower level of PEEP for patients with sepsis-induced moderate or severe ARDS (2C); recruitment maneuvers in sepsis patients with severe refractory hypoxemia due to ARDS (2C); prone positioning in sepsis-induced ARDS patients with a Pao
 2/Fio
 2 ratio of ≤100 mm Hg in facilities that have experience with such practices (2C); head-of-bed elevation in mechanically ventilated patients unless contraindicated (1B); a conservative fluid strategy for patients with established ARDS who do not have evidence of tissue hypoperfusion (1C); protocols for weaning and sedation (1A); minimizing use of either intermittent bolus sedation or continuous infusion sedation targeting specific titration endpoints (1B); avoidance of neuromuscular blockers if possible in the septic patient without ARDS (1C); a short course of neuromuscular blocker (no longer than 48 h) for patients with early ARDS and a Pao
 2/Fi
 o
 2 180 mg/dL, targeting an upper blood glucose ≤180 mg/dL (1A); equivalency of continuous veno-venous hemofiltration or intermittent hemodialysis (2B); prophylaxis for deep vein thrombosis (1B); use of stress ulcer prophylaxis to prevent upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with bleeding risk factors (1B); oral or enteral (if necessary) feedings, as tolerated, rather than either complete fasting or provision of only intravenous glucose within the first 48 h after a diagnosis of severe sepsis/septic shock (2C); and addressing goals of care, including treatment plans and end-of-life planning (as appropriate) (1B), as early as feasible, but within 72 h of intensive care unit admission (2C). Recommendations specific to pediatric severe sepsis include: therapy with face mask oxygen, high flow nasal cannula oxygen, or nasopharyngeal continuous PEEP in the presence of respiratory distress and hypoxemia (2C), use of physical examination therapeutic endpoints such as capillary refill (2C); for septic shock associated with hypovolemia, the use of crystalloids or albumin to deliver a bolus of 20 mL/kg of crystalloids (or albumin equivalent) over 5–10 min (2C); more common use of inotropes and vasodilators for low cardiac output septic shock associated with elevated systemic vascular resistance (2C); and use of hydrocortisone only in children with suspected or proven “absolute”’ adrenal insufficiency (2C). Strong agreement existed among a large cohort of international experts regarding many level 1 recommendations for the best care of patients with severe sepsis. Although a significant number of aspects of care have relatively weak support, evidence-based recommendations regarding the acute management of sepsis and septic shock are the foundation of improved outcomes for this important group of critically ill patients.

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Surviving Sepsis Campaign: International Guidelines for Management of Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock, 2012

Secret History: Return of the Black Death Channel 4, 7-8pm In 1348 the Black Death swept through London, killing people within days of the appearance of their first symptoms. Exactly how many died, and why, has long been a mystery. This Secret History documentary follows experts as they pick through the evidence and reveal why the plague killed on such a scale. And they ask, what might be coming next?

Medscape

Summary Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future. Funding Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.

Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

Introduction The 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19) has led to unprecedented strain on healthcare facilities across the United States. Accurately identifying patients at an increased risk of deterioration may help hospitals manage their resources while improving the quality of patient care. Here we present the results of an analytical model, PICTURE (Predicting Intensive Care Transfers and Other UnfoReseen Events), to identify patients at a high risk for imminent intensive care unit (ICU) transfer, respiratory failure, or death with the intention to improve prediction of deterioration due to COVID-19. We compare PICTURE to the Epic Deterioration Index (EDI), a widespread system which has recently been assessed for use to triage COVID-19 patients. Methods The PICTURE model was trained and validated on a cohort of hospitalized non-COVID-19 patients using electronic health record data from 2014-2018. It was then applied to two hold-out test sets: non-COVID-19 patients from 2019 and patients testing positive for COVID-19 in 2020. PICTURE results were aligned to the EDI for head-to-head comparison via Area Under the Receiver Operator Curve (AUROC) and Area Under the Precision Recall Curve (AUPRC). We compared the models’ ability to predict an adverse event (defined as ICU transfer, mechanical ventilation use, or death) at two levels of granularity: (1) maximum score across an encounter with a minimum lead time before the first adverse event and (2) predictions at every observation with instances in the last 24 hours before the adverse event labeled as positive. PICTURE and the EDI were also compared on the encounter level using different lead times extending out to 24 hours. Shapley values were used to provide explanations for PICTURE predictions. Results PICTURE successfully delineated between high- and low-risk patients and consistently outperformed the EDI in both of our cohorts. In non-COVID-19 patients, PICTURE achieved an AUROC (95% CI) of 0.819 (0.805 - 0.834) and AUPRC of 0.109 (0.089 - 0.125) on the observation level, compared to the EDI AUROC of 0.762 (0.746 - 0.780) and AUPRC of 0.077 (0.062 - 0.090). On COVID-19 positive patients, PICTURE achieved an AUROC of 0.828 (0.794 - 0.869) and AUPRC of 0.160 (0.089 - 0.199), while the EDI scored an AUROC of 0.792 (0.754 - 0.835) and AUPRC of 0.131 (0.092 - 0.159). The most important variables influencing PICTURE predictions in the COVID-19 cohort were a rapid respiratory rate, a high level of oxygen support, low oxygen saturation, and impaired mental status (Glasgow coma score). Conclusion The PICTURE model is more accurate in predicting adverse patient outcomes for both general ward patients and COVID-19 positive patients in our cohorts compared to the EDI. The ability to consistently anticipate these events may be especially valuable when considering a potential incipient second wave of COVID-19 infections. PICTURE also has the ability to explain individual predictions to clinicians by ranking the most important features for a prediction. The generalizability of the model will require testing in other health care systems for validation.

/pdf/validation-and-comparison-of-picture-analytic-and-epic-3mxyye1enq.pdf

Validation and comparison of PICTURE analytic and Epic Deterioration Index for COVID-19

Erratum. Hemoglobin-Based Oxygen Carriers: First, Second or Third Generation? Human or Bovine? Where are We Now? (DOI:10.1016/j.ccc.2009.01.003)

While the concept of source control is not new and is in widespread practice, some of the underpinning that defines the practice has evolved. While source control is commonly interpreted as the drainage of purulent material, removal of infected medical devices, control of GI tract perforation, and debridement of devitalized tissue, all of those elements are reactionary in nature and are accompanied by adjunctive antibiotics for variable courses. Over the last decade, major advances have occurred in understanding the molecular basis of disease pathogenesis as well as the host response to injury, inflammation, and infection. These advances may enable proactive measures to be undertaken that target specific elements of host defense to optimize patient outcome in the emergency department (ED), operating room (OR), intensive care unit (ICU), or general ward. This chapter will address how one may integrate standard source control practices with recent data on potentially controllable elements that may enable host defense success.

Source Control and Supporting Therapeutics: Integrating Bacterial Invasion, Host Defense, and Clinical Interventions with Source Control Procedures

s/presentations/ posters No. of abstracts, posters, and presentations given at international, national, or regional meetings Other presentations No. of other presentations given (grand rounds and invited professorships), materials developed, or other work presented in non–peer-review publication, including peer reviewed but not recognized by NLM Chapters No. of chapters or textbooks published Grants No. of grants for which faculty member had leadership role (principal investigator, coprincipal investigator, or site director) Leadership role Had an active leadership role (such as serving on committees or governing boards in national medical organizations or served as a reviewer or an editorial board member for a peer-reviewed journal Education leadership/ materials Held teaching responsibility for seminar, conference series, or course coordination (such as arrangement of materials and assessment of participants’ performance) for any didactic training within the sponsoring institution or program (note: this is not a single presentation or lecture) NLM = National Library of Medicine.

Scholarly Activity Requirements for Critical Care Fellowship Program Directors: What Should It Be? How Should We Measure it?

IntroductionRacial and socioeconomic disparities in health access and outcomes for many conditions is well known However, for time-sensitive high-acuity diseases such as traumatic injuries, dispar

Lena M. Napolitano

Papers

Validation and comparison of PICTURE analytic and Epic Deterioration Index for COVID-19

Erratum. Hemoglobin-Based Oxygen Carriers: First, Second or Third Generation? Human or Bovine? Where are We Now? (DOI:10.1016/j.ccc.2009.01.003)

Source Control and Supporting Therapeutics: Integrating Bacterial Invasion, Host Defense, and Clinical Interventions with Source Control Procedures

Scholarly Activity Requirements for Critical Care Fellowship Program Directors: What Should It Be? How Should We Measure it?

Racial Disparities at Mixed-Race and Minority Hospitals : Treatment of African American Males With High-Grade Splenic Injuries.