Transport and climate change: a review

Some energy services and industrial processes-such as long-distance freight transport, air travel, highly reliable electricity, and steel and cement manufacturing-are particularly difficult to provide without adding carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. Rapidly growing demand for these services, combined with long lead times for technology development and long lifetimes of energy infrastructure, make decarbonization of these services both essential and urgent. We examine barriers and opportunities associated with these difficult-to-decarbonize services and processes, including possible technological solutions and research and development priorities. A range of existing technologies could meet future demands for these services and processes without net addition of CO2 to the atmosphere, but their use may depend on a combination of cost reductions via research and innovation, as well as coordinated deployment and integration of operations across currently discrete energy industries.

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Net-zero emissions energy systems

Models show that to avert dangerous levels of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions must fall to zero later this century. Most of these emissions arise from energy use. Davis et al. review what it would take to achieve decarbonization of the energy system. Some parts of the energy system are particularly difficult to decarbonize, including aviation, long-distance transport, steel and cement production, and provision of a reliable electricity supply. Current technologies and pathways show promise, but integration of now-discrete energy sectors and industrial processes is vital to achieve minimal emissions. Net emissions of CO2 by human activities - including not only energy services and industrial production but also land use and agriculture - must approach zero in order to stabilize global mean temperature. Energy services such as light-duty transportation, heating, cooling, and lighting may be relatively straightforward to decarbonize by electrifying and generating electricity from variable renewable energy sources (such as wind and solar) and dispatchable ("on-demand") nonrenewable sources (including nuclear energy and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage). However, other energy services essential to modern civilization entail emissions that are likely to be more difficult to fully eliminate. These difficult-to-decarbonize energy services include aviation, long-distance transport, and shipping; production of carbon-intensive structural materials such as steel and cement; and provision of a reliable electricity supply that meets varying demand. Moreover, demand for such services and products is projected to increase substantially over this century. The long-lived infrastructure built today, for better or worse, will shape the future. Here, we review the special challenges associated with an energy system that does not add any CO2 to the atmosphere (a net-zero emissions energy system). We discuss prominent technological opportunities and barriers for eliminating and/or managing emissions related to the difficult-to-decarbonize services; pitfalls in which near-term actions may make it more difficult or costly to achieve the net-zero emissions goal; and critical areas for research, development, demonstration, and deployment. It may take decades to research, develop, and deploy these new technologies. DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aas9793

Net-zero Emissions Energy Systems

ライブラリー Annual Energy Outlook 2000

https://innovativemobility.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Ridesharing_in_North_America_Past__Present__and_Future.pdf

Ridesharing in North America: Past, Present, and Future

Author(s): Fulton, Lewis; Miller, Marshall; Burke, Andrew; Wang, Qian; Yang, Chris | Abstract: This study examines potential changes in car and truck powertrain technology and fuel mix that could enable a transition to low carbon futures, out to 2050, in California. We consider combinations of battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells, and advanced biofuels, including ethanol, diesel biofuels, and renewable natural gas, for internal combustion engines that could lead to 80% GHG reductions compared to 1990. We consider two main low-carbon scenarios—a high ZEV adoption case (ZEV) and a mixed (ZEV and Biofuel) adoption case (ZEV+B)—both relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) case. We find that achieving an 80% reduction in CO2 from cars and trucks (separately and together) appears feasible at relatively low cumulative cost, and with eventual likely net savings (as fuel savings exceed vehicle cost, mostly after 2030). However, the required rates of increase in sales of ZEV cars and trucks, and production volumes of advanced, low-carbon biofuels, will be quite challenging. Regarding ZEVs, we expect the greatest challenge to be for long-haul trucks, and we reduce the rate of sales increase for these as a result. In the ZEV scenario, all vehicle types reach 100% ZEV sales shares by 2050 (except long-haul trucks, which reach 80%). In the ZEV+B scenario, these targets are lower, but a strong ramp-up in advanced biofuel use is needed to achieve the 80% target, with commercial scale cellulosic production of ethanol and renewable diesel dominant by 2050. The net costs or savings of the scenarios are relatively low—on the order of ±$10-50 billion over the next 30 years—in relation to $4 trillion total spending in the BAU scenario. However, the additional costs of vehicle purchase run as high as $110 billion in the ZEV scenario, which will likely require substantial purchase incentives to overcome. Future research should examine how costs translate into policy needs (including generalized cost factors such as driving range) and the potential role, sourcing, and cost of advanced biofuels.

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Technology and Fuel Transition Scenarios to Low Greenhouse Gas Futures for Cars and Trucks in California

Author(s): Jaller, Miguel; Otero, Carlos; Pourrahmani, Elham; Fulton, Lewis | Abstract: Understanding the potential benefits and unintended consequences of automation and electrification revolutions in freight is challenging for academics, practitioners, and decision-makers. On one hand, these revolutions could help mitigate the disproportionate impacts of freight transportation on externalities and improve efficiency; on the other hand, they could generate additional issues such as right-of-way conflicts, crashes, and traffic incidents. To shed light on these issues, this report conducts an extensive review of the state-of-the-practice of such innovations for both long-haul and last-mile freight distribution. The study concentrates on the potential barriers, challenges, and opportunities of the different innovations, and discusses the market readiness of some of the technologies. Finally, the authors discuss planning considerations for the advent and widespread use of these innovations, and provide research and policy considerations.

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Automation, Electrification, and Shared Mobility in Freight

Sustainable transportation energy pathways

Author(s): Fulton, Lewis; Compostella, Junia; Kothawala, Alimurtaza | Abstract: UC Davis researchers have developed a cost model of travel choices that individuals make related to urban vehicle travel. These choices can include deciding to own, ride in, and drive a private vehicle or use pooled or solo ridesourcing (e.g., Uber). The model considers both monetary and non-monetary factors that affect travel choice. Monetary factors include the costs of purchasing, maintaining, and fueling different types of privately owned vehicles; and the cost of using ridesourcing services. Non-monetary (or “hedonic”) factors include travel time, parking time/inconvenience, willingness to drive or be a passenger in a driven or automated vehicle, and willingness to travel with strangers. The travel choices affected by these factors impact broader society through traffic congestion, pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, accidents, etc. and thus may be an important focus of policy. This report reviews recent literature, considers factors affecting travel choices, and reports, on a conjoint pilot survey or stated preferences. Finally, it considers approaches to apply time value to factors that are not typically associated with specific trips, such as time spent on vehicle maintenance and parking. The results should enable a deeper understanding of the likelihood that individuals will own and use private vehicles or use shared (solo and pooled) ridesourcing, and how automated vehicle services could affect these choices in the future. The study also highlights additional research needs, such as a large scale stated preference study covering more factors than have been included in previous studies.View the NCST Project Webpage

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Estimating the Costs of New Mobility Travel Options: Monetary and Non-Monetary Factors

How do “millennials” make their mobility choices? What are their lifestyles and preferences? What are their future aspirations to purchase a vehicle? What factors affect their mobility-related choices? These are some of the research questions motivating our study. We investigate the mobility patterns of young adults, age 18 through 30, in California. Young adults (“Generation Y”, or “Millennials”) are an important and dynamic group of the population. They often are early adopters of new trends (in culture, as well as lifestyles) later adopted by other segments of society. Millennials include the future influential leaders of society, and are often in a very important “transitional” stage of their life, in which they are building the basis for their future life, family and work career. They will contribute to create new households and influence future travel patterns in many ways. They will have a growing purchasing power in future years and might be potential future buyers of private vehicles (and they do influence the car market with their choices and preferences). Recent research suggests that per-capita car travel seems to have “peaked” in recent years in the United States as well as in other developed countries (Metz, 2012; Sivak, 2014).  Young adults, in particular, have demonstrated a rather drastic modification in their travel behavior. Among the observed changes, younger travelers tend to postpone the time they obtain a driver’s license, more often choose not to own a car, drive less even if they own one, and use alternative non-motorized means of transportation (Blumenberg et al., 2012; Kuhnimhof et al., 2012; Frandberg and Vilhelmson, 2011). This study investigates the lifestyles and mobility-related decisions of young adults through the analysis of data collected with an online survey among a sample representative of the population of young adults in California. We focus on millennials’ travel behavior patterns, their aspirations to purchase a vehicle, and the motivations behind them. We collect information on p ersonal attitudes and preferences (as they relate to social habits, lifestyles, adoption of technology, environmental concerns, exercise/physical activity, etc.), transportation-specific attitudes (about mode perception, comfort, time flexibility, etc.), interaction with peers and their expectations (i.e. peer pressure or societal pressure), engagement in face-to-face and online social activities (and their role in shaping travel for young adults), cultural background, commute behavior, limitations to travel (physical disabilities, availability of a private car, access to public transportation, availability of ride/car sharing programs, etc.), residential location (urban vs. suburban, rural areas, neighborhood type, dwelling type, etc.), propensity to purchase a vehicle, and socio-demographic traits. This first pilot study focuses on the mobility-related choices of millennials in California. Future extensions of this multiple-year research will expand the study to other states in the United States, and internationally, through the comparison of the information collected in this dataset with the data collected for the other regions. By the time of the IATBR conference, we plan to have completed the first stage of data collection, and we will present preliminary results from the analysis of the sample for California. The study will provide important insights into the lifestyles and mobility-patterns of millennials in California, and the role of several factors affecting their choices. The results from the study will allow us to better understand future patterns in travel demand, and the impact of urban form, personal attitudes and preferences, environmental concerns and individuals’ lifestyles on young adults’ travel behavior and use of private vehicles (which could not be studied with more aggregated or less comprehensive datasets). The study will provide important information to better understand the relationships behind travel behavior and future aspirations of young adults, and will shed light on the possible responses of this large segment of the population to future policies targeted at improving the efficiency and increasing the environmental sustainability of transportation. References: Metz, D. (2012). Demographic determinants of daily travel demand.  Transport Policy . 21(1): 20–25 Sivak, M. (2014). "Has motorization in the US peaked? Part 5: update through 2012". University of Michigan, Technical Report, Transportation Research Institute. Blumenberg, E. B. D. Taylor, M. Smart, K. Ralph, M. Wander, and S. Brumbaugh (2012) What's Youth Got to Do with It? Exploring the Travel Behavior of Teens and Young Adults, UCTC-FR-2012-14, University of California Transportation Center; available at www.uctc.net/research/papers/UCTC-FR-2012-14.pdf . Kuhnimhof, T., Armoogum, J., Buehler, R., Dargay, J., Denstadli, J. M. and Yamamoto, T.(2012) Men shape a downward trend in car use among young adults — evidence from six industrialized countries, Transport Reviews , 32(6): 761–779. Frandberg, L., and B. Vilhelmson. (2011) "More or less travel: personal mobility trends in the Swedish population focusing gender and cohort."  Journal of Transport Geography, 19(6): 1235-1244.

Lewis Fulton

Papers

Technology and Fuel Transition Scenarios to Low Greenhouse Gas Futures for Cars and Trucks in California

Automation, Electrification, and Shared Mobility in Freight

Sustainable transportation energy pathways

Estimating the Costs of New Mobility Travel Options: Monetary and Non-Monetary Factors

Generation Y: An Investigation of the Lifestyles and Mobility Choices of Millennials in California, and the Motivations behind Them