A recently developed integrative framework proposes that the vulnerability of a species to environmental change depends on the species' exposure and sensitivity to environmental change, its resilience to perturbations and its potential to adapt to change. These vulnerability criteria require behavioural, physiological and genetic data. With this information in hand, biologists can predict organisms most at risk from environmental change. Biologists and managers can then target organisms and habitats most at risk. Unfortunately, the required data (e.g. optimal physiological temperatures) are rarely available. Here, we evaluate the reliability of potential proxies (e.g. critical temperatures) that are often available for some groups. Several proxies for ectotherms are promising, but analogous ones for endotherms are lacking. We also develop a simple graphical model of how behavioural thermoregulation, acclimation and adaptation may interact to influence vulnerability over time. After considering this model together with the proxies available for physiological sensitivity to climate change, we conclude that ectotherms sharing vulnerability traits seem concentrated in lowland tropical forests. Their vulnerability may be exacerbated by negative biotic interactions. Whether tropical forest (or other) species can adapt to warming environments is unclear, as genetic and selective data are scant. Nevertheless, the prospects for tropical forest ectotherms appear grim.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2012.0005

Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of behaviour, physiology and adaptation

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/354/6313/aaf7671.full.pdf

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Senescence in natural populations of animals: Widespread evidence and its implications for bio-gerontology

1. We review our ecological understanding of wildlife infectious diseases from the individual host to the ecosystem scale, highlighting where conceptual thinking lacks verification, discussing difficulties and challenges, and offering potential future research directions. 2. New molecular approaches hold potential to increase our understanding of parasite interactions within hosts. Also, advances in our knowledge of immune systems makes immunological parameters viable measures of parasite exposure, and useful tools for improving our understanding of causal mechanisms. 3. Studies of transmission dynamics have revealed the importance of heterogeneity in host behaviour and physiology, and of contact processes operating at different spatial and temporal scales. An important future challenge is to determine the key transmission mechanisms maintaining the persistence of different types of diseases in the wild. 4. Regulation of host populations is too complex to consider parasite effects in isolation from other factors. One solution is to seek a unified understanding of the conditions under which (and the ecological rules determining when) population scale impacts of parasites can occur. 5. Good evidence now shows that both direct effects of parasites, and trait mediated indirect effects, frequently mediate the success of invasive species and their impacts on recipient communities. A wider exploration of these effects is now needed. 6. At the ecosystem scale, research is needed to characterize the circumstances and conditions under which both fluxes in parasite biomass, and trait mediated effects, are significant in ecosystem processes, and to demonstrate that parasites do indeed increase 'ecosystem health'. 7. There is a general need for more empirical testing of predictions and subsequent development of theory in the classic research cycle. Experimental field studies, meta-analyses, the collection and analysis of long-term data sets, and data constrained modelling, will all be key to advancing our understanding. 8. Finally, we are only now beginning to understand the importance of cross-scale interactions associated with parasitism. Such interactions may offer key insights into bigger picture questions such as when and how different regulatory factors are important, when disease can cause species extinctions, and what characteristics are indicative of functionally resilient ecosystems.

/pdf/wildlife-diseases-from-individuals-to-ecosystems-5fgxt0oj2f.pdf

Wildlife diseases: from individuals to ecosystems

The increasing frequency of zoonotic disease events underscores a need to develop forecasting tools toward a more preemptive approach to outbreak investigation. We apply machine learning to data describing the traits and zoonotic pathogen diversity of the most speciose group of mammals, the rodents, which also comprise a disproportionate number of zoonotic disease reservoirs. Our models predict reservoir status in this group with over 90% accuracy, identifying species with high probabilities of harboring undiscovered zoonotic pathogens based on trait profiles that may serve as rules of thumb to distinguish reservoirs from nonreservoir species. Key predictors of zoonotic reservoirs include biogeographical properties, such as range size, as well as intrinsic host traits associated with lifetime reproductive output. Predicted hotspots of novel rodent reservoir diversity occur in the Middle East and Central Asia and the Midwestern United States.

Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic diseases

Early environments can profoundly influence an organism in ways that persist over its life. In reptiles, early thermal environments (nest temperatures) can impact offspring phenotype and survival in important ways, yet we still lack an understanding of whether general trends exist and the magnitude of impact. Understanding these patterns is important in predicting how climate change will affect reptile populations and the role of phenotypic plasticity in buffering populations. We compiled data from 175 reptile studies to examine, and quantify, the effect of incubation temperature on phenotype and survival. Using meta-analytic approaches (standardized mean difference between incubation treatments, Hedges' g), we show that across all trait types examined there is, on average, a moderate to large magnitude of effect of incubation temperatures (absolute effect: |g| = 0.75). Unsurprisingly, this influence was extremely large for incubation duration, as predicted, with warmer temperatures decreasing incubation time overall (g = -8.42). Other trait types, including behaviour, physiology, morphology, performance, and survival experienced reduced, but still mostly moderate to large effects, with particularly strong effects on survival. Moreover, the impact of incubation temperature persisted at least one-year post-hatching, suggesting that these effects have the potential to impact fitness in the long term. The magnitude of effect increased as the change in temperature increased (e.g. 6°C versus 2°C) in almost all cases, and tended to decrease when temperatures of the treatments fluctuated around a mean temperature compared to when they were constant. The effect also depended on the mid-temperature of the comparison, but not in consistent ways, with some traits experiencing the greatest effects at extreme temperatures, while others did not. The highly heterogeneous nature of the effects we observe, along with a large amount of unexplained variability, indicates that the shape of reaction norms between phenotype and temperature, along with ecological and/or experimental factors, are important when considering general patterns. Our analyses provide new insights into the effects of incubation environments on reptile phenotype and survival and allow general, albeit coarse, predictions for taxa experiencing warming nest temperatures under climatic change.

Developmental temperatures and phenotypic plasticity in reptiles: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Under temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD), temperatures experienced by embryos during development determine the sex of the offspring. Consequently, populations of organisms with TSD have the potential to be strongly impacted by climatic warming that could bias offspring sex ratio, a fundamental demographic parameter involved in population dynamics. Moreover, many taxa with TSD are imperiled, so research on this phenomenon, particularly long‐term field study, has assumed great urgency. Recently, turtles with TSD have joined the diverse list of taxa that have demonstrated population‐level changes in breeding phenology in response to recent climate change. This raises the possibility that any adverse impacts of climate change on populations may be alleviated by individual plasticity in nesting phenology. Here, we examine data from a long‐term study on a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) to determine whether changes in phenology are due to individual plasticity and whether ind...

https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1159&context=eeob_ag_pubs

Climate Change and Temperature‐Dependent Sex Determination: Can Individual Plasticity in Nesting Phenology Prevent Extreme Sex Ratios?

Conditions experienced early in life can influence phenotypes in ecologically important ways, as exemplified by organisms with environmental sex determination. For organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), variation in nest temperatures induces phenotypic variation that could impact population growth rates. In environments that vary over space and time, how does this variation influence key demographic parameters (cohort sex ratio and hatchling recruitment) in early life stages of populations exhibiting TSD? We leverage a 17-year data set on a population of painted turtles, Chrysemys picta, to investigate how spatial variation in nest vegetation cover and temporal variation in climate influence early life-history demography. We found that spatial variation in nest cover strongly influenced nest temperature and sex ratio, but was not correlated with clutch size, nest predation, total nest failure, or hatching success. Temporal variation in climate influenced percentage of total nest failure and cohort sex ratio, but not depredation rate, mean clutch size, or mean hatching success. Total hatchling recruitment in a year was influenced primarily by temporal variation in climate-independent factors, number of nests constructed, and depredation rate. Recruitment of female hatchlings was determined by stochastic variation in nest depredation and annual climate and also by the total nest production. Overall population demography depends more strongly on annual variation in climate and predation than it does on the intricacies of nest-specific biology. Finally, we demonstrate that recruitment of female hatchlings translates into recruitment of breeding females into the population, thus linking climate (and other) effects on early life stages to adult demographics.

https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1157&context=eeob_ag_pubs

Climate and predation dominate juvenile and adult recruitment in a turtle with temperature-dependent sex determination

An increasing number of publishers and funding agencies require public data archiving (PDA) in open-access databases. PDA has obvious group benefits for the scientific community, but many researchers are reluctant to share their data publicly because of real or perceived individual costs. Improving participation in PDA will require lowering costs and/or increasing benefits for primary data collectors. Small, simple changes can enhance existing measures to ensure that more scientific data are properly archived and made publicly available: (1) facilitate more flexible embargoes on archived data, (2) encourage communication between data generators and re-users, (3) disclose data re-use ethics, and (4) encourage increased recognition of publicly archived data.

/pdf/troubleshooting-public-data-archiving-suggestions-to-137yln80ac.pdf

Troubleshooting Public Data Archiving: Suggestions to Increase Participation

Parasitized animals may alter their life histories to minimize the costs of parasitism. Organisms are predicted to decrease investment in current reproduction when parasitism has the greatest impact on current reproductive ability. In contrast, if parasitism decreases residual reproductive value, hosts should increase current reproductive investment, referred to as fecundity compensation or terminal investment. In mammalian hosts, parasitic infection most often leads to reductions in current host reproduction, perhaps attributable to the emphasis on parasites that are unlikely to impact the host’s residual reproductive value. In this study, the life history response of a rodent, Peromyscus maniculatus, to infection with a parasite that should strongly impact the residual reproductive value of its host (Schistosomatium douthitti, Trematoda) was examined. Infection decreased survival for hosts exposed to a high dose of parasites and was chronic in survivors, confirming that infection had strong impacts for the residual reproductive value of the host. As predicted, infected mice increased their reproductive output, producing litters of greater mass due to heavier offspring. However, this increased output was observed after a greater delay to begin breeding in infected mice and was not observed in animals that suffered early mortality. The deer mouse S. douthitti system may provide a rare example of fecundity compensation in mammals.

Lisa E. Schwanz

Papers

Developmental temperatures and phenotypic plasticity in reptiles: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Climate Change and Temperature‐Dependent Sex Determination: Can Individual Plasticity in Nesting Phenology Prevent Extreme Sex Ratios?

Climate and predation dominate juvenile and adult recruitment in a turtle with temperature-dependent sex determination

Troubleshooting Public Data Archiving: Suggestions to Increase Participation

Chronic parasitic infection alters reproductive output in deer mice