Showing papers by "M. Elizabeth Halloran published in 2013"

Optimal vaccine allocation for the early mitigation of pandemic influenza.

Abstract: With new cases of avian influenza H5N1 (H5N1AV) arising frequently, the threat of a new influenza pandemic remains a challenge for public health. Several vaccines have been developed specifically targeting H5N1AV, but their production is limited and only a few million doses are readily available. Because there is an important time lag between the emergence of new pandemic strain and the development and distribution of a vaccine, shortage of vaccine is very likely at the beginning of a pandemic. We coupled a mathematical model with a genetic algorithm to optimally and dynamically distribute vaccine in a network of cities, connected by the airline transportation network. By minimizing the illness attack rate (i.e., the percentage of people in the population who become infected and ill), we focus on optimizing vaccine allocation in a network of 16 cities in Southeast Asia when only a few million doses are available. In our base case, we assume the vaccine is well-matched and vaccination occurs 5 to 10 days after the beginning of the epidemic. The effectiveness of all the vaccination strategies drops off as the timing is delayed or the vaccine is less well-matched. Under the best assumptions, optimal vaccination strategies substantially reduced the illness attack rate, with a maximal reduction in the attack rate of 85%. Furthermore, our results suggest that cooperative strategies where the resources are optimally distributed among the cities perform much better than the strategies where the vaccine is equally distributed among the network, yielding an illness attack rate 17% lower. We show that it is possible to significantly mitigate a more global epidemic with limited quantities of vaccine, provided that the vaccination campaign is extremely fast and it occurs within the first weeks of transmission.

HLA targeting efficiency correlates with human T-cell response magnitude and with mortality from influenza A infection.

Abstract: Experimental and computational evidence suggests that HLAs preferentially bind conserved regions of viral proteins, a concept we term “targeting efficiency,” and that this preference may provide improved clearance of infection in several viral systems. To test this hypothesis, T-cell responses to A/H1N1 (2009) were measured from peripheral blood mononuclear cells obtained from a household cohort study performed during the 2009–2010 influenza season. We found that HLA targeting efficiency scores significantly correlated with IFN-γ enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot responses (P = 0.042, multiple regression). A further population-based analysis found that the carriage frequencies of the alleles with the lowest targeting efficiencies, A*24, were associated with pH1N1 mortality (r = 0.37, P = 0.031) and are common in certain indigenous populations in which increased pH1N1 morbidity has been reported. HLA efficiency scores and HLA use are associated with CD8 T-cell magnitude in humans after influenza infection. The computational tools used in this study may be useful predictors of potential morbidity and identify immunologic differences of new variant influenza strains more accurately than evolutionary sequence comparisons. Population-based studies of the relative frequency of these alleles in severe vs. mild influenza cases might advance clinical practices for severe H1N1 infections among genetically susceptible populations.

The effects of vector movement and distribution in a mathematical model of dengue transmission.

Abstract: Background: Mathematical models have been used to study the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks and predict the effectiveness of potential mass vaccination campaigns. However, models depend on simplifying assumptions to be tractable, and the consequences of making such assumptions need to be studied. Two assumptions usually incorporated by mathematical models of vector-borne disease transmission is homogeneous mixing among the hosts and vectors and homogeneous distribution of the vectors. Methodology/Principal Findings: We explored the effects of mosquito movement and distribution in an individual-based model of dengue transmission in which humans and mosquitoes are explicitly represented in a spatial environment. We found that the limited flight range of the vector in the model greatly reduced its ability to transmit dengue among humans. A model that does not assume a limited flight range could yield similar attack rates when transmissibility of dengue was reduced by 39%. A model in which mosquitoes are distributed uniformly across locations behaves similarly to one in which the number of mosquitoes per location is drawn from an exponential distribution with a slightly higher mean number of mosquitoes per location. When the models with different assumptions were calibrated to have similar human infection attack rates, mass vaccination had nearly identical effects. Conclusions/Significance: Small changes in assumptions in a mathematical model of dengue transmission can greatly change its behavior, but estimates of the effectiveness of mass dengue vaccination are robust to some simplifying assumptions typically made in mathematical models of vector-borne disease.

Estimating strain-specific and overall efficacy of polyvalent vaccines against recurrent pathogens from a cross-sectional study.

Abstract: Summary Evaluating vaccine efficacy for protection against colonization with bacterial pathogens is an area of growing interest. Colonization of the nasopharynx is an asymptomatic carrier state responsible for person-to-person transmission. It differs from most clinical outcomes in that it is common, recurrent, and observed only in its prevalent state. To estimate rates of acquisition and clearance of colonization requires repeated active sampling of the same individuals over time, an expensive and invasive undertaking. Motivated by feasibility constraints in efficacy trials with colonization endpoints, investigators have been estimating vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional studies without principled methods. We present two examples of vaccine studies estimating vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional data on nasopharyngeal colonization by Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus). This study presents a framework for defining and estimating strain-specific and overall vaccine efficacy for susceptibility to acquisition of colonization () when there is a large number of strains with mutual interactions and recurrent dynamics of colonization. We develop estimators based on one observation of the current status per study subject, evaluate their robustness, and re-analyze the two vaccine trials. Methodologically, the proposed estimators are closely related to case–control studies with prevalent cases, with appropriate consideration of the at-risk time in choosing the controls.

Case Definition and Design Sensitivity

Abstract: In a case-referent study, cases of disease are compared to noncases with respect to their antecedent exposure to a treatment in an effort to determine whether exposure causes some cases of the disease. Because exposure is not randomly assigned in the population, as it would be if the population were a vast randomized trial, exposed and unexposed subjects may differ prior to exposure with respect to covariates that may or may not have been measured. After controlling for measured preexposure differences, for instance by matching, a sensitivity analysis asks about the magnitude of bias from unmeasured covariates that would need to be present to alter the conclusions of a study that presumed matching for observed covariates removes all bias. The definition of a case of disease affects sensitivity to unmeasured bias. We explore this issue using: (i) an asymptotic tool, the design sensitivity, (ii) a simulation for finite samples, and (iii) an example. Under favorable circumstances, a narrower case definition ...

Methods for identifying Neisseria meningitidis carriers: a multi-center study in the African meningitis belt.

Abstract: Objective Detection of meningococcal carriers is key to understanding the epidemiology of Neisseria meningitidis, yet no gold standard has been established. Here, we directly compare two methods for collecting pharyngeal swabs to identify meningococcal carriers. Methods We conducted cross-sectional surveys of schoolchildren at multiple sites in Africa to compare swabbing the posterior pharynx behind the uvula (U) to swabbing the posterior pharynx behind the uvula plus one tonsil (T). Swabs were cultured immediately and analyzed using molecular methods. Results One thousand and six paired swab samples collected from schoolchildren in four countries were analyzed. Prevalence of meningococcal carriage was 6.9% (95% CI: 5.4-8.6%) based on the results from both swabs, but the observed prevalence was lower based on one swab type alone. Prevalence based on the T swab or the U swab alone was similar (5.2% (95% CI: 3.8-6.7%) versus 4.9% (95% CI: 3.6-6.4%) respectively (p=0.6)). The concordance between the two methods was 96.3% and the kappa was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.50-0.73), indicating good agreement. Conclusions These two commonly used methods for collecting pharyngeal swabs provide consistent estimates of the prevalence of carriage, but both methods misclassified carriers to some degree, leading to underestimates of the prevalence.