Corruption and Growth

Introduction References and Suggested Readings PART I REAL DYNAMIC MACROECONOMIC MODELS 1. Dynamic Programming A General Intertemporal Problem A Recursive Problem Bellman's Equations Nonstochastic Examples The Optimal Linear Regulator Problem Stochastic Control Problems Examples of Stochastic Control Problems The Stochastic Linear Optimal Regulator Problem Dynamic Programming and Lucas's Critique Dynamic Games and the Time Inconsistency Phenomenon Conclusions Exercises References and Suggested Readings 2. Search Nonnegative Random Variables Stigler's Model of Search Sequential Search for the Lowest Price Mean-Preserving Spreads Increases in Risk and the Reservation Price Intertemporal Job Search Waiting Times Firing Jovanovic's Matching Model Conclusions Exercises References and Suggested Readings 3. Asset Prices and Consumption Hall's Random Walk Theory of Consumption The Random Walk Theory of Stock Prices Lucas's Model of Asset Prices Mehra and Prescott's Finite-State Version of Lucas's Model Asset Pricing More Generally The Modigliani-Miller Theorem Government Debt and the Ricardian Proposition Remarks on Testing and Estimation Conclusions Exercises References and Suggested Readings PART II MONETARY ECONOMICS AND GOVERNMENT FINANCE 4. Currency in the Utility Function The Price of Inconvertible Government Currency in Lucas's Tree Model Issues and Models in Monetary Economics Government Debt in the Utility Function Government Currency in the Utility Function Seignorage and the Optimum Quantity of Currency A Neutrality Proposition Conclusions References and Suggested Readings 5. Cash-in-Advance Models A One-Country Model Fisher Equations Inflation-Indexed Government Debt Interactions of Monetary and Fiscal Policies Interest on Reserves A Two-Country Model Exchange Rate Indeterminacy Conclusions Exercises References and Suggested Readings 6. Credit and Currency with Long-Lived Agents The Physical Setup Optimal Allocations Competitive Equilibrium A Digression on the Balances of Trade and Payments The Ricardian Doctrine about Taxes and Government Debt The Model with Valued Currency and No Private Debt An Interventionist Optimal Monetary Equilibrium Townsend's \"Turnpike\" Interpretation Conclusions Exercises References and Suggested Readings 7. Credit and Currency with Overlapping Generations The Overlapping-Generations Model The Ricardian Doctrine about Taxes and Government Debt Again A Ricardian Proposition Currency, Bonds, and Open-Market Operations Computing Equilibria Interpretations as Currency Equilibria Optimality Four Examples on Inflation and Its Causes Seignorage and the Laffer Curve Dynamics of Seignorage Forced Saving International Exchange Rates Conclusions Exercises References and Suggested Readings 8. Government Finance in Stochastic Overlapping-Generations Models The Economy Some Examples A General Irrelevance Theorem Wallace's Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations Chamley and Polemarchakis's Neutrality Theorem Interpretation as a Constant Fiscal Policy Indexed Government Bonds A Ricardian Proposition Further Irrelevance Theorems Conclusions Exercises References and Suggested Readings Appendix. Functional Analysis for Macroeconomics Metric Spaces and Operators First-Order Linear Difference Equations A Formula of Hansen and Sargent A Quadratic Optimization Problem in R A Discounted Quadratic Optimization Problem Predicting a Geometric Distributed Lead of a Stochastic Process Discounted Dynamic Programming A Search Problem Exercises References and Suggested Readings Index

Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory

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Does Flattening Government Improve Economic Performance? Evidence from China

The autoregressive model for cointegrated variables is analyzed with respect to the role of the constant and linear terms. Various models for 1(1) variables defined by restrictions on the deterministic terms are discussed, and it is shown that statistical inference can be performed by reduced rank regression. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics and estimators are found. A similar analysis is given for models for 1(2) variables with a constant term.

The role of the constant and linear terms in cointegration analysis of nonstationary variables : Cointegrated systems. I

In this paper we offer a comprehensive and updated review of the impact of fiscal decentralization on the economy, society and politics. We start with the examination of two crucial and yet unsolved issues in the literature on decentralization: its proper measurement and the potential endogeneity of fiscal decentralization with many of the variables of interest we are trying to investigate. Then we discuss the main findings in the existing literature on the effects of decentralization on a relevant list of socio-economic variables. The impact of fiscal decentralization reforms on political institutions is also considered. Complete answers to the many questions on the impact of fiscal decentralization are not likely to be certain but overall there are reasons to be optimistic about the overall positive impact of the decentralized systems that have been introduced all over the world in the past several decades. The survey offered in this paper by necessity has to be selective but it presents a balanced view of what is known and what is not yet known opening room for further research and practice on fiscal decentralization.

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The Impact of Fiscal Decentralization: A Survey.

Some countries fail to ensure that their citizens and businesses make an appropriate contribution to the financing of public tasks. But not all countries with a low tax ratio automatically fall into this cat-egory. This paper presents an approach to bridge the gap between probabilistic statements based on statistical analyses, and country-specific information. Rather than defining general across-the-board criteria, the approach accounts for different development levels and other influencing factors, such as regional patterns, non-tax revenue and governance. Findings on individual countries or groups of countries should put governments, donors and international organisations in a better position to decide on tax reform programmes and aid modalities.

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A Comparative View on the Tax Performance of Developing Countries: Regional Patterns, Non-Tax Revenue and Governance

A large majority of the well-known governance indicators are based on the opinions of external experts. However, they do not fully capture how citizens perceive the governance environment and outcomes in their countries. This chapter discusses the advantages of a uniform and consistent framework for measuring governance quality across countries and over time based on evaluations by citizens, and the related challenges. We implement this framework in practice using data from the World Values Survey and provide a worldwide ranking of countries based on how citizens perceive the governance quality in their own countries. We further discuss how to correct the resulting citizen-centric governance indicators (CGI) for biases that could potentially be present in public opinion surveys, and the possible use of these indicators in policy-making.

Ranking Countries for Good Governance Using Public Opinion Surveys

Chapter 4 shows how particular economic fundamentals and interest group politics are driving the formation of large fiscal gaps. Here, we stress that corruption is also an important determinant of the fiscal gap in many developed countries. We first introduce corruption and debt in the two-period model of government investment, using the generational interpretation. The model highlights the connection between corruption and government debt when the altruism toward future generations is sufficiently low. Next, we move to a more complete analysis using the overlapping-generations growth model. This section extends the quantitative theory from Chap. 5 that studied how the presence of corruption and tax evasion affects the formation of a country’s fiscal policy, by including public debt as a fiscal instrument.

Corruption and Public Debt

We use the boycott of the Summer Olympic Games in Moscow in 1980 and related events to identify a causal effect of escalation of the Cold War on the magnitude and direction of knowledge creation in the economy. Using data on over 165,000 U.S. and East German patents, we show that Soviet inventors who patent in the U.S. prior to 1979-80 both decrease their patent activity in the U.S. and other observant countries and increase their patent activity in non-observant countries, namely East Germany, after the boycott is announced. We find that on average a 10% increase in inventive activity by Soviet scientists in East Germany increases domestic invention by 2.5% in the long run. We also identify knowledge spillovers through greater participation of Soviet inventors on East German patent teams and through larger Soviet patent teams in general. Our results suggest that political decisions may have far-reaching, unintended consequences for economic activity through knowledge production.

Russia, sanctions, and the accidental knowledge bust and boom: evidence from the boycott of the 1980 moscow summer olympics ∗

This paper explores the extent to which government revenue is affected by external shocks, and whether these effects are different for resource-rich as compared with non-resource-rich countries. We are particularly interested in the fate of poorer countries, as we assume they will find it more difficult to implement the policies needed to offset the effect of shocks. Based on data from the International Centre for Taxation and Development Government Revenue Dataset for 1980â€“2010, we measure the elasticity of tax revenue with respect to terms-of-trade shocks. We find that revenue in resource-rich countries is more vulnerable to such shocks. Interestingly, it is above all the richer countries that appear to be adversely affected. Also, resource-rich countries became less vulnerable in the 2000s as compared with previous decades. When we look at the poorer resource-rich countries, we find that a countryâ€™s general institutional characteristics may not always reflect the quality of its management of natural resources.

Maksym Ivanyna

Papers

A Comparative View on the Tax Performance of Developing Countries: Regional Patterns, Non-Tax Revenue and Governance

Ranking Countries for Good Governance Using Public Opinion Surveys

Corruption and Public Debt

Russia, sanctions, and the accidental knowledge bust and boom: evidence from the boycott of the 1980 moscow summer olympics ∗

Does the political resource curse affect public finance? The vulnerability of tax revenue in resource-rich countries