Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves throughout Europe and has painfully exposed the continent's dependence on a geopolitical adversary. Energy is closely tied into the ongoing battle: Europe is committed to phasing out Russian fossil fuel imports, whilst Russia, in turn, has cut gas supplies to a number of countries and significantly reduced flows to others. Given historical tensions between delivering supply security and other social goals we analyse what energy policy responses to the crisis so far mean for: environmental sustainability, energy equity and social justice. In doing so, we reveal strong potential for an acceleration of clean energy supply across Europe, complications for fossil fuel phase out, negative knock-on effects for sustainable transitions in the Global South, significant implications for energy equity within and beyond Europe, and a relative return of the state as an energy actor. Reframing energy as a geopolitical security concern has, in acute crisis, tended to obfuscate and/or downplay other energy policy goals, raising a number of difficult questions for policymakers seeking to pursue lasting sustainable and equitable transitions. 

Russia's war on Ukraine, European energy policy responses & implications for sustainable transformations

Abstract The Earth system and the human system are intrinsically linked. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to the climate crisis, which is causing unprecedented extreme events and could trigger Earth system tipping elements. Physical and social forces can lead to tipping points and cascading effects via feedbacks and telecoupling, but the current generation of climate-economy models do not generally take account of these interactions and feedbacks. Here, we show the importance of the interplay between human societies and Earth systems in creating tipping points and cascading effects and the way they in turn affect sustainability and security. The lack of modeling of these links can lead to an underestimation of climate and societal risks as well as how societal tipping points can be harnessed to moderate physical impacts. This calls for the systematic development of models for a better integration and understanding of Earth and human systems at different spatial and temporal scales, specifically those that enable decision-making to reduce the likelihood of crossing local or global tipping points. 

Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human Earth system: cascading effects and telecoupling

The crises that cities face-such as climate change, pandemics, economic downturn, and racism-are tightly interlinked and cannot be addressed in isolation. This paper addresses compound urban crises as a unique type of problem, in which discrete solutions that tackle each crisis independently are insufficient. Few scholarly debates address compound urban crises and there is, to date, a lack of interdisciplinary insights to inform urban governance responses. Combining ideas from complex adaptive systems and critical urban studies, we develop a set of boundary concepts (unsettlement, unevenness, and unbounding) to understand the complexities of compound urban crises from an interdisciplinary perspective. We employ these concepts to set a research agenda on compound urban crises, highlighting multiple interconnections between urban politics and global dynamics. We conclude by suggesting how these entry points provide a theoretical anchor to develop practical insights to inform and reform urban governance. 

Compound urban crises

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156039

The effects of COVID-19 transmission on environmental sustainability and human health: Paving the way to ensure its sustainable management

Social tipping can accelerate behaviour change consistent with policy objectives in diverse domains from social justice to climate change. Hypothetically, however, group identities might undermine tipping in ways that policymakers do not anticipate. To examine this, we implemented an experiment around the 2020 US federal elections. The participants faced consistent incentives to coordinate their choices. Once the participants had established a coordination norm, an intervention created pressure to tip to a new norm. Our control treatment used neutral labels for choices. Our identity treatment used partisan political images. This simple pay-off-irrelevant relabelling generated extreme differences. The control groups developed norms slowly before intervention but transitioned to new norms rapidly after intervention. The identity groups developed norms rapidly before intervention but persisted in a state of costly disagreement after intervention. Tipping was powerful but unreliable. It supported striking cultural changes when choice and identity were unlinked, but even a trivial link destroyed tipping entirely. In an experiment with partisan Americans, the researchers found that social tipping was a potent but unreliable route to cultural change. Even a trivial activation of polarized identities undercut the socially beneficial tipping that otherwise occurred. 

/pdf/group-identities-can-undermine-social-tipping-after-2saq5chf.pdf

Group identities can undermine social tipping after intervention.

Emergency frames are mobilized in contemporary sustainability debates, both in response to specific events and strategically. The strategic deployment of emergency frames by proponents of sustainability action aims to stimulate collective action on issues for which it is lacking. But this is contentious due to a range of possible effects. We critically review interdisciplinary social science literature to examine the political effects of emergency frames in sustainability and develop a typology of five key dimensions of variation. This pinpoints practical areas for evaluating the utility of emergency frames and builds a shared vocabulary for analysis and decision-making. Emergency frames in sustainability debates can stimulate collective action on issues for which it is lacking but can have consequences. This Review examines the political effects of emergency frames in sustainability and develops a typology of different effects to build a shared vocabulary for analysis and decision-making.

/pdf/the-political-effects-of-emergency-frames-in-sustainability-3pgfyh5lg8.pdf

The political effects of emergency frames in sustainability

Social tipping processes towards climate action: a conceptual framework

Persistent divides among American voters regarding climate change, especially climate skepticism among conservatives, have long been explained with reference to ideology, vested interests, and tren...

Manjana Milkoreit

Papers

The political effects of emergency frames in sustainability

Social tipping processes towards climate action: a conceptual framework

Who are your people? – The effect of political ideology and social identity on climate-related beliefs and risk perceptions