Hail observations and hailstorm characteristics in Europe: A review

Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain Language Summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organizing evacuations. We review and compare the state of the art of impact forecasting across a wide range of natural hazards and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2020RG000704

Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards

In this study we investigate convective environments and their corresponding climatological features over Europe and the United States. For this purpose, National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Arrival Time Difference long-range lightning detection network (ATDnet) data, ERA5 hybrid-sigma levels, and severe weather reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm Data were combined on a common grid of 0.25° and 1-h steps over the period 1979–2018. The severity of convective hazards increases with increasing instability and wind shear (WMAXSHEAR), but climatological aspects of these features differ over both domains. Environments over the United States are characterized by higher moisture, CAPE, CIN, wind shear, and midtropospheric lapse rates. Conversely, 0–3-km CAPE and low-level lapse rates are higher over Europe. From the climatological perspective severe thunderstorm environments (hours) are around 3–4 times more frequent over the United States with peaks across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast. Over Europe severe environments are the most common over the south with local maxima in northern Italy. Despite having lower CAPE (tail distribution of 3000–4000 J kg−1 compared to 6000–8000 J kg−1 over the United States), thunderstorms over Europe have a higher probability for convective initiation given a favorable environment. Conversely, the lowest probability for initiation is observed over the Great Plains, but, once a thunderstorm develops, the probability that it will become severe is much higher compared to Europe. Prime conditions for severe thunderstorms over the United States are between April and June, typically from 1200 to 2200 central standard time (CST), while across Europe favorable environments are observed from June to August, usually between 1400 and 2100 UTC.

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Severe Convective Storms across Europe and the United States. Part II: ERA5 Environments Associated with Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes

Cut‐off  low pressure systems (COLs) are defined as closed lows in the upper troposphere that have become completely detached from the main westerly current. These slow‐moving systems often affect the weather conditions at the earth's surface and also work as a mechanism of mass transfer between the stratosphere and the troposphere, playing a significant role in the net flow of tropospheric ozone. In the first part of this work we provide a comprehensive summary of results obtained in previous studies of COLs. Following this, we present three long‐term climatologies of COLs. The first two climatologies are based on the conceptual model of a COL, using European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses (1958–2002) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (1948–2006) reanalysis data sets. The third climatology uses a different method of detection, which is based on using potential vorticity as the physical parameter of diagnosis. This approach was applied only to the ECMWF reanalysis data. The final part of the paper is devoted to comparing results obtained by these different climatologies in terms of areas of preferential occurrence, life span, and seasonal cycle. Despite some key differences, the three climatologies agree in terms of the main areas of COL occurrence, namely (1) southwestern Europe, (2) the eastern north Pacific coast, and (3) the north China–Siberian region. However, it is also shown that the detection of these areas of main COL occurrence, as obtained using the potential vorticity approach, depends on the level of isentropic analysis used.

Identification and Climatology of Cut-off Lows near the Tropopause

Hail frequency estimation across Europe based on a combination of overshooting top detections and the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis

At the end of July 2013, a series of severe thunderstorms associated with heavy rainfall, severe wind gusts, and large hail affected parts of Germany. On 28 July 2013, two supercells formed almost simultaneously in southern Germany, from which only the more southerly cell produced hailstones up to 10 cm in diameter on a hailswath approximately 120 km long and 15–20 km wide. For the insurance industry, this event with losses of more than EUR 1 billion was one of the most expensive natural disasters that has ever occurred in Germany.

This paper investigates the creation, temporal evolution, and effects of the most severe supercell that day by considering and merging radar and satellite data, eyewitness reports, insurance loss data, and numerical model studies. Observations of hail at ground level fit very well with a cold–ring-shaped structure in the cloud top brightness temperature observed by a geostationary satellite imager. Various simulations conducted with the convection-permitting COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) revealed that the track of the hailstorm could be reproduced only when convection was triggered artificially by two warm bubbles that produced single cells that were precursors of the supercell. The model results suggested that the supercell developed near a pre-existing single cell through low-level flow convergence in an environment with moderate CAPE, but substantial wind shear and storm-relative helicity, both of which persisted for several hours in the area in which the supercell moved.

The severe hailstorm in southwest Germany on 28 July 2013: characteristics, impacts and meteorological conditions

Hail statistics for Germany derived from single-polarization radar data

. Over three weeks in May and June 2018, an exceptionally large number of thunderstorms hit vast parts of western and central Europe, causing precipitation of up to 80 mm and several flash floods. During this time, the large-scale atmospheric circulation, which was characterized by a blocking situation over northern Europe, influenced atmospheric conditions relevant for thunderstorm development. Initially, the southwesterly flow on the western flank of the blocking anticyclone induced the advection of warm, moist, and unstably stratified air masses. Due to a low-pressure gradient associated with the blocking anticyclone, these air masses were trapped in western and central Europe, remained almost stationary and prevented a significant air mass exchange. In addition, the low-pressure gradient led to weak flow conditions in the mid-troposphere and thus to low vertical wind shear that prevented thunderstorms from developing into severe organized systems. Most of the storms formed as local-scale, relatively slow-moving single cells. However, due to the related weak propagation speed, several thunderstorms were able to produce torrential heavy rain that affected local-scale areas and triggered several flash floods. Atmospheric blocking also increased the upper-level cut-off low frequency on its upstream regions, which was up to 10 times higher than the climatological mean. Together with filaments of positive potential vorticity (PV), the cut-offs served as trigger mechanisms for a majority of the thunderstorms. For the 22-day study period, we found that more than 50 % of lightning strikes can be linked to a nearby cut-off low or PV filament. The exceptional persistence of low stability combined with weak wind speed in the mid-troposphere over three weeks has not been observed during the past 30 years.

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Manuel Schmidberger

Papers

The severe hailstorm in southwest Germany on 28 July 2013: characteristics, impacts and meteorological conditions

Hail statistics for Germany derived from single-polarization radar data

The role of large-scale dynamics in an exceptional sequence of severe thunderstorms in Europe May–June 2018

Severe thunderstorms with large hail across Germany in June 2019

The severe hailstorm in Germany on 28 July 2013: Characteristics and meteorological conditions