世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

WRITING GROUP MEMBERS Emelia J. Benjamin, MD, SCM, FAHA Michael J. Blaha, MD, MPH Stephanie E. Chiuve, ScD Mary Cushman, MD, MSc, FAHA Sandeep R. Das, MD, MPH, FAHA Rajat Deo, MD, MTR Sarah D. de Ferranti, MD, MPH James Floyd, MD, MS Myriam Fornage, PhD, FAHA Cathleen Gillespie, MS Carmen R. Isasi, MD, PhD, FAHA Monik C. Jiménez, ScD, SM Lori Chaffin Jordan, MD, PhD Suzanne E. Judd, PhD Daniel Lackland, DrPH, FAHA Judith H. Lichtman, PhD, MPH, FAHA Lynda Lisabeth, PhD, MPH, FAHA Simin Liu, MD, ScD, FAHA Chris T. Longenecker, MD Rachel H. Mackey, PhD, MPH, FAHA Kunihiro Matsushita, MD, PhD, FAHA Dariush Mozaffarian, MD, DrPH, FAHA Michael E. Mussolino, PhD, FAHA Khurram Nasir, MD, MPH, FAHA Robert W. Neumar, MD, PhD, FAHA Latha Palaniappan, MD, MS, FAHA Dilip K. Pandey, MBBS, MS, PhD, FAHA Ravi R. Thiagarajan, MD, MPH Mathew J. Reeves, PhD Matthew Ritchey, PT, DPT, OCS, MPH Carlos J. Rodriguez, MD, MPH, FAHA Gregory A. Roth, MD, MPH Wayne D. Rosamond, PhD, FAHA Comilla Sasson, MD, PhD, FAHA Amytis Towfighi, MD Connie W. Tsao, MD, MPH Melanie B. Turner, MPH Salim S. Virani, MD, PhD, FAHA Jenifer H. Voeks, PhD Joshua Z. Willey, MD, MS John T. Wilkins, MD Jason HY. Wu, MSc, PhD, FAHA Heather M. Alger, PhD Sally S. Wong, PhD, RD, CDN, FAHA Paul Muntner, PhD, MHSc On behalf of the American Heart Association Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics Subcommittee Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2017 Update

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2017 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

http://diposit.ub.edu/dspace/bitstream/2445/122776/1/gbd2016riskfactorscollaborators2017_3028.pdf

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

Distributional economic evaluation estimates the value for money of health interventions in terms of population health and health equity impacts. When applied to interventions delivered at the population and health system-level interventions (PSIs) instead of clinical interventions, additional practical and methodological challenges arise. Using the example of the Programme Saude da Familia (PSF) in Brazil, a community-level primary care system intervention, we seek to illustrate these challenges and provide potential solutions. We use a distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA) approach to evaluate the impact of the PSF on population health and between-state health inequalities in Brazil. Data on baseline health status, disease prevalence and PSF effectiveness are extracted from the literature and incorporated into a Markov model to estimate the long-term impacts in terms of disability-adjusted life years. The inequality and average health impacts are analysed simultaneously using health-related social welfare functions. Uncertainty is computed using Monte Carlo simulation. The DCEA encountered several challenges in the context of PSIs. Non-randomized, quasi-experimental methods may not be powered to identify treatment effect heterogeneity estimates to inform a decision model. PSIs are more likely to be funded from multiple public sector budgets, complicating the calculation of health opportunity costs. We estimate a cost-per-disability-adjusted life years of funding the PSF of $2640. Net benefits were positive across the likely range of intervention cost. Social welfare analysis indicates that, compared to gains in average health, changes in health inequalities accounted for a small proportion of the total welfare improvement, even at high levels of social inequality aversion. Evidence on the population health and health equity impacts of PSIs can be incorporated into economic evaluation methods, although with additional complexity and assumptions. The case study results indicate that the PSF is likely to be cost-effective but that the inequality impacts are small and highly uncertain.

Equity and economic evaluation of system-level health interventions: A case study of Brazil's Family Health Program

The Growth of Health Expenditures: Ageing vs. Technological Progress

Community-based health insurance (CBHI) has gained popularity in many low- and middle-income countries, partly as a policy response to calls for low-cost, pro-poor health financing solutions. In Africa, Rwanda has successfully implemented two types of CBHI systems since 2005, one of which with a flat rate premium (2005-10) and the other with a stratified premium (2011-present). Existing CBHI evaluations have, however, tended to ignore the potential distributional aspects of the household contributions made towards CBHI. In this paper, we investigate the pattern of socioeconomic inequality in CBHI household premium contributions in Rwanda within the implementation periods. We also assess gender differences in CBHI contributions. Using the 2010/11 and 2013/14 rounds of national survey data, we quantify the magnitude of inequality in CBHI payments, decompose the concentration index of inequality, calculate Kakwani indices and implement unconditional quantile regression decomposition to assess gender differences in CBHI expenditure. We find that the CBHI with stratified premiums is less regressive than CBHI with a flat rate premium system. Decomposition analysis indicates that income and CBHI stratification explain a large share of the inequality in CBHI payments. With respect to gender, female-headed households make lower contributions towards CBHI expenditure, compared with male-headed households. In terms of policy implications, the results suggest that there may be a need for increasing the premium bracket for the wealthier households, as well as for the provision of more subsidies to vulnerable households.

Socioeconomic inequality in premiums for a community-based health insurance scheme in Rwanda

This article provides an overview of selected economic aspects of primary prevention, from an international perspective. It starts by qualifying two widely held myths about the economics of prevention. It then discusses two core components of the economic argument for (or against) prevention: first, this involves providing a very basic, efficiency-based rationale for a role of government in prevention; second, we review the existing evidence on the cost-effectiveness of primary prevention. While a fair amount of encouraging evidence exists, there has definitely been far more cost-effectiveness research on clinical than on non-clinical primary prevention (e. g., health promotion). The article seeks to explain this comparative shortage, which carries over to pure effectiveness research on prevention. It concludes by arguing the economic case for a role of government not only in prevention but also, and even more so, in research on non-clinical prevention.

Ökonomische Aspekte der Prävention – eine internationale Perspektive

We present a large scale study where a nationally representative sample of 1000 participants were asked to make real purchases within an online supermarket platform. The study captured the effect of price changes, and of the signposting of such changes, for breakfast cereals and soft drinks. We find that such taxes are an effective means of altering food purchasing, with a 20% rate being sufficient to make a significant impact if (and only if) the tax is signposted. Signposting represents a complementary “nudge” policy that could enhance the impact of the tax, though its effectiveness depends on the product category.

/pdf/the-impact-of-taxation-and-signposting-on-diet-an-online-3w12uel4t1.pdf

Marc Suhrcke

Papers

Equity and economic evaluation of system-level health interventions: A case study of Brazil's Family Health Program

The Growth of Health Expenditures: Ageing vs. Technological Progress

Socioeconomic inequality in premiums for a community-based health insurance scheme in Rwanda

Ökonomische Aspekte der Prävention – eine internationale Perspektive

The impact of taxation and signposting on diet: an online field study with breakfast cereals and soft drinks