THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Preface 1. Decision-Theoretic Foundations 1.1 Game Theory, Rationality, and Intelligence 1.2 Basic Concepts of Decision Theory 1.3 Axioms 1.4 The Expected-Utility Maximization Theorem 1.5 Equivalent Representations 1.6 Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems 1.7 Limitations of the Bayesian Model 1.8 Domination 1.9 Proofs of the Domination Theorems Exercises 2. Basic Models 2.1 Games in Extensive Form 2.2 Strategic Form and the Normal Representation 2.3 Equivalence of Strategic-Form Games 2.4 Reduced Normal Representations 2.5 Elimination of Dominated Strategies 2.6 Multiagent Representations 2.7 Common Knowledge 2.8 Bayesian Games 2.9 Modeling Games with Incomplete Information Exercises 3. Equilibria of Strategic-Form Games 3.1 Domination and Ratonalizability 3.2 Nash Equilibrium 3.3 Computing Nash Equilibria 3.4 Significance of Nash Equilibria 3.5 The Focal-Point Effect 3.6 The Decision-Analytic Approach to Games 3.7 Evolution. Resistance. and Risk Dominance 3.8 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 3.9 Bayesian Equilibria 3.10 Purification of Randomized Strategies in Equilibria 3.11 Auctions 3.12 Proof of Existence of Equilibrium 3.13 Infinite Strategy Sets Exercises 4. Sequential Equilibria of Extensive-Form Games 4.1 Mixed Strategies and Behavioral Strategies 4.2 Equilibria in Behavioral Strategies 4.3 Sequential Rationality at Information States with Positive Probability 4.4 Consistent Beliefs and Sequential Rationality at All Information States 4.5 Computing Sequential Equilibria 4.6 Subgame-Perfect Equilibria 4.7 Games with Perfect Information 4.8 Adding Chance Events with Small Probability 4.9 Forward Induction 4.10 Voting and Binary Agendas 4.11 Technical Proofs Exercises 5. Refinements of Equilibrium in Strategic Form 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Perfect Equilibria 5.3 Existence of Perfect and Sequential Equilibria 5.4 Proper Equilibria 5.5 Persistent Equilibria 5.6 Stable Sets 01 Equilibria 5.7 Generic Properties 5.8 Conclusions Exercises 6. Games with Communication 6.1 Contracts and Correlated Strategies 6.2 Correlated Equilibria 6.3 Bayesian Games with Communication 6.4 Bayesian Collective-Choice Problems and Bayesian Bargaining Problems 6.5 Trading Problems with Linear Utility 6.6 General Participation Constraints for Bayesian Games with Contracts 6.7 Sender-Receiver Games 6.8 Acceptable and Predominant Correlated Equilibria 6.9 Communication in Extensive-Form and Multistage Games Exercises Bibliographic Note 7. Repeated Games 7.1 The Repeated Prisoners Dilemma 7.2 A General Model of Repeated Garnet 7.3 Stationary Equilibria of Repeated Games with Complete State Information and Discounting 7.4 Repeated Games with Standard Information: Examples 7.5 General Feasibility Theorems for Standard Repeated Games 7.6 Finitely Repeated Games and the Role of Initial Doubt 7.7 Imperfect Observability of Moves 7.8 Repeated Wines in Large Decentralized Groups 7.9 Repeated Games with Incomplete Information 7.10 Continuous Time 7.11 Evolutionary Simulation of Repeated Games Exercises 8. Bargaining and Cooperation in Two-Person Games 8.1 Noncooperative Foundations of Cooperative Game Theory 8.2 Two-Person Bargaining Problems and the Nash Bargaining Solution 8.3 Interpersonal Comparisons of Weighted Utility 8.4 Transferable Utility 8.5 Rational Threats 8.6 Other Bargaining Solutions 8.7 An Alternating-Offer Bargaining Game 8.8 An Alternating-Offer Game with Incomplete Information 8.9 A Discrete Alternating-Offer Game 8.10 Renegotiation Exercises 9. Coalitions in Cooperative Games 9.1 Introduction to Coalitional Analysis 9.2 Characteristic Functions with Transferable Utility 9.3 The Core 9.4 The Shapkey Value 9.5 Values with Cooperation Structures 9.6 Other Solution Concepts 9.7 Colational Games with Nontransferable Utility 9.8 Cores without Transferable Utility 9.9 Values without Transferable Utility Exercises Bibliographic Note 10. Cooperation under Uncertainty 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Concepts of Efficiency 10.3 An Example 10.4 Ex Post Inefficiency and Subsequent Oilers 10.5 Computing Incentive-Efficient Mechanisms 10.6 Inscrutability and Durability 10.7 Mechanism Selection by an Informed Principal 10.8 Neutral Bargaining Solutions 10.9 Dynamic Matching Processes with Incomplete Information Exercises Bibliography Index

博弈论 : 矛盾冲突分析 = Game theory : analysis of conflict

ing WS1S Systems to Verify Parameterized Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 Kai Baukus, Saddek Bensalem, Yassine Lakhnech and Karsten Stahl FMona: A Tool for Expressing Validation Techniques over Infinite State Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 J.-P. Bodeveix and M. Filali Transitive Closures of Regular Relations for Verifying Infinite-State Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 Bengt Jonsson and Marcus Nilsson Diagnostic and Test Generation Using Static Analysis to Improve Automatic Test Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 Marius Bozga, Jean-Claude Fernandez and Lucian Ghirvu Efficient Diagnostic Generation for Boolean Equation Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 Radu Mateescu Efficient Model-Checking Compositional State Space Generation with Partial Order Reductions for Asynchronous Communicating Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266 Jean-Pierre Krimm and Laurent Mounier Checking for CFFD-Preorder with Tester Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283 Juhana Helovuo and Antti Valmari Fair Bisimulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299 Thomas A. Henzinger and Sriram K. Rajamani Integrating Low Level Symmetries into Reachability Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315 Karsten Schmidt Model-Checking Tools Model Checking Support for the ASM High-Level Language . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331 Giuseppe Del Castillo and Kirsten Winter Table of

Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems. Proc. TACAS 2009

Software engineering comprehends several disciplines devoted to prevent and remedy malfunctions and to warrant adequate behaviour. Testing, the subject of this paper, is a widespread validation approach in industry, but it is still largely ad hoc, expensive, and unpredictably effective. Indeed, software testing is a broad term encompassing a variety of activities along the development cycle and beyond, aimed at different goals. Hence, software testing research faces a collection of challenges. A consistent roadmap of the most relevant challenges to be addressed is here proposed. In it, the starting point is constituted by some important past achievements, while the destination consists of four identified goals to which research ultimately tends, but which remain as unreachable as dreams. The routes from the achievements to the dreams are paved by the outstanding research challenges, which are discussed in the paper along with interesting ongoing work.

/pdf/software-testing-research-achievements-challenges-dreams-et7gocee7m.pdf

Software Testing Research: Achievements, Challenges, Dreams

An orchestrated survey of methodologies for automated software test case generation

This chapter presents principles and techniques for modelbased black-box conformance testing of real-time systems using the Uppaal model-checking tool-suite. The basis for testing is given as a network of concurrent timed automata specified by the test engineer. Relativized input/output conformance serves as the notion of implementation correctness, essentially timed trace inclusion taking environment assumptions into account. Test cases can be generated offline and later executed, or they can be generated and executed online. For both approaches this chapter discusses how to specify test objectives, derive test sequences, apply these to the system under test, and assign a verdict.

/pdf/testing-real-time-systems-using-uppaal-2n8d0n7elv.pdf

Testing real-time systems using UPPAAL

We present the development of T-UPPAAL — a new tool for online black-box testing of real-time embedded systems from non-deterministic timed automata specifica- tions. It is based on a sound and complete randomized online testing algorithm and is im- plemented using symbolic state representation and manipulation techniques. We propose the notion of relativized timed input/output conformance as the formal implementation relation. A novelty of this relation and our testing algorithm is that they explicitly take environment assumptions into account, generate, execute and verify the result online using the UPPAAL on-the-fly model-checking tool engine. This paper introduces the principles behind the tool, describes the present implementation status, and future work directions.

/pdf/online-testing-of-real-time-systems-using-uppaal-status-and-1an2ylwny8.pdf

Online Testing of Real-time Systems Using UPPAAL: Status and Future Work

We propose the first tool for solving complex (some undecidable) problems of timed systems by using Statistical Model Checking (SMC). The tool monitors several runs of the system, and then relies on statistical algorithms to get an estimate of the correctness of the entire design. Contrary to other existing toolsets, ours relies on i) a natural stochastic semantics for networks of timed systems, ii) an engine capable to solve problems that are beyond the scope of classical model checkers, and iii) a friendly user interface.

/pdf/time-for-statistical-model-checking-of-real-time-systems-2xw8bsba6f.pdf

Time for statistical model checking of real-time systems

UPPAAL-TRON is a new tool for model based online black-box conformance testing of real-time embedded systems specified as timed automata. In this paper we present our experiences in applying our tool and technique on an industrial case study. We conclude that the tool and technique is applicable to practical systems, and that it has promising error detection potential and execution performance.

/pdf/testing-real-time-embedded-software-using-uppaal-tron-5asuenxevh.pdf

Testing Real-Time Embedded Software using UppAal-TRON

This paper offers a natural stochastic semantics of Networks of Priced Timed Automata (NPTA) based on races between components. The semantics provides the basis for satisfaction of probabilistic Weighted CTL properties (PWCTL), conservatively extending the classical satisfaction of timed automata with respect to TCTL. In particular the extension allows for hard real-time properties of timed automata expressible in TCTL to be refined by performance properties, e.g. in terms of probabilistic guarantees of time- and cost-bounded properties. A second contribution of the paper is the application of Statistical Model Checking (SMC) to efficiently estimate the correctness of non-nested PWCTL model checking problems with a desired level of confidence, based on a number of independent runs of the NPTA. In addition to applying classical SMC algorithms, we also offer an extension that allows to efficiently compare performance properties of NPTAs in a parametric setting. The third contribution is an efficient tool implementation of our result and applications to several case studies.

Marius Mikučionis

Papers

Testing real-time systems using UPPAAL

Online Testing of Real-time Systems Using UPPAAL: Status and Future Work

Time for statistical model checking of real-time systems

Testing Real-Time Embedded Software using UppAal-TRON

Stochastic Semantics and Statistical Model Checking for Networks of Priced Timed Automata