Traffic forecasting is important for the success of intelligent transportation systems. Deep learning models, including convolution neural networks and recurrent neural networks, have been extensively applied in traffic forecasting problems to model spatial and temporal dependencies. In recent years, to model the graph structures in transportation systems as well as contextual information, graph neural networks have been introduced and have achieved state-of-the-art performance in a series of traffic forecasting problems. In this survey, we review the rapidly growing body of research using different graph neural networks, e.g. graph convolutional and graph attention networks, in various traffic forecasting problems, e.g. road traffic flow and speed forecasting, passenger flow forecasting in urban rail transit systems, and demand forecasting in ride-hailing platforms. We also present a comprehensive list of open data and source resources for each problem and identify future research directions. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first comprehensive survey that explores the application of graph neural networks for traffic forecasting problems. We have also created a public GitHub repository where the latest papers, open data, and source resources will be updated.

Graph Neural Network for Traffic Forecasting: A Survey.

A range of applications, from predicting the spread of human and electronic viruses to city planning and resource management in mobile communications, depend on our ability to foresee the whereabouts and mobility of individuals, raising a fundamental question: To what degree is human behavior predictable? Here we explore the limits of predictability in human dynamics by studying the mobility patterns of anonymized mobile phone users. By measuring the entropy of each individual's trajectory, we find a 93% potential predictability in user mobility across the whole user base. Despite the significant differences in the travel patterns, we find a remarkable lack of variability in predictability, which is largely independent of the distance users cover on a regular basis.

http://absimage.aps.org/image/MAR10/MWS_MAR10-2009-007155.pdf

Limits of predictability in human mobility

The study of human mobility is crucial due to its impact on several aspects of our society, such as disease spreading, urban planning, well-being, pollution, and more. The proliferation of digital ...

A Survey on Deep Learning for Human Mobility

The last decade has witnessed the emergence of massive mobility data sets, such as tracks generated by GPS devices, call detail records, and geo-tagged posts from social media platforms. These data sets have fostered a vast scientific production on various applications of mobility analysis, ranging from computational epidemiology to urban planning and transportation engineering. A strand of literature addresses data cleaning issues related to raw spatiotemporal trajectories, while the second line of research focuses on discovering the statistical "laws" that govern human movements. A significant effort has also been put on designing algorithms to generate synthetic trajectories able to reproduce, realistically, the laws of human mobility. Last but not least, a line of research addresses the crucial problem of privacy, proposing techniques to perform the re-identification of individuals in a database. A view on state of the art cannot avoid noticing that there is no statistical software that can support scientists and practitioners with all the aspects mentioned above of mobility data analysis. In this paper, we propose scikit-mobility, a Python library that has the ambition of providing an environment to reproduce existing research, analyze mobility data, and simulate human mobility habits. scikit-mobility is efficient and easy to use as it extends pandas, a popular Python library for data analysis. Moreover, scikit-mobility provides the user with many functionalities, from visualizing trajectories to generating synthetic data, from analyzing statistical patterns to assessing the privacy risk related to the analysis of mobility data sets.

scikit-mobility: a Python library for the analysis, generation and risk assessment of mobility data

An activity-based approach to transport demand modeling is considered the most behaviorally sound procedure to assess the effects of transport policies. This paper investigates whether it is possible to transfer an estimated model for activity generation from elsewhere (the estimation context) and use local area (application context) traffic counts to develop a local area activity-based transport demand representation. Here, the estimation context is the Los Angeles, California, area, and the application context is Berlin. Results in this paper suggest that such a transfer approach is feasible, according to a comparison with a Berlin travel survey. Additional studies need to be undertaken to examine the stability of the results obtained in this paper.

Integrating CEMDAP and MATsim to Increase the Transferability of Transport Demand Models

The study of human mobility is crucial due to its impact on several aspects of our society, such as disease spreading, urban planning, well-being, pollution, and more. The proliferation of digital mobility data, such as phone records, GPS traces, and social media posts, combined with the outstanding predictive power of artificial intelligence, triggered the application of deep learning to human mobility. In particular, the literature is focusing on three tasks: next-location prediction, i.e., predicting an individual's future locations; crowd flow prediction, i.e., forecasting flows on a geographic region; and trajectory generation, i.e., generating realistic individual trajectories. Existing surveys focus on single tasks, data sources, mechanistic or traditional machine learning approaches, while a comprehensive description of deep learning solutions is missing. This survey provides: (i) basic notions on mobility and deep learning; (ii) a review of data sources and public datasets; (iii) a description of deep learning models and (iv) a discussion about relevant open challenges. Our survey is a guide to the leading deep learning solutions to next-location prediction, crowd flow prediction, and trajectory generation. At the same time, it helps deep learning scientists and practitioners understand the fundamental concepts and the open challenges of the study of human mobility.

Deep Learning for Human Mobility: a Survey on Data and Models.

Urban planners, authorities, and numerous additional players have to deal with challenges related to the rapid urbanization process and its effect on human mobility and transport dynamics. Hence, optimize transportation systems represents a unique occasion for municipalities. Indeed, the quality of transport is linked to economic growth, and by decreasing traffic congestion, the life quality of the inhabitants is drastically enhanced. Most state-of-the-art solutions optimize traffic in specific and small zones of cities (e.g., single intersections) and cannot be used to gather insights for an entire city. Moreover, evaluating such optimized policies in a realistic way that is convincing for policy-makers can be extremely expensive. In our work, we propose a reinforcement learning frameworks to overtake these two limitations. In particular, we use human mobility data to optimize the transport dynamics of three real-world cities (i.e., Berlin, Santiago de Chile, Dakar) and a synthesized one (i.e., SynthTown). To this end, we transform the transportation dynamics’ simulator MATSim into a realistic reinforcement learning environment able to optimize and evaluate transportation policies using agents that perform realistic daily activities and trips. In this way, we can assess transportation policies in a manner that is convincing for policy-makers. Finally, we develop a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm that approximates MATSim dynamics with a Partially Observable Discrete Event Decision Process (PODEDP) and, with respect to other state-of-art policy optimization techniques, can scale on big transportation data and find optimal policies also on a city-scale.

/pdf/optimizing-transportation-dynamics-at-a-city-scale-using-a-5arh66m4rt.pdf

Optimizing Transportation Dynamics at a City-Scale Using a Reinforcement Learning Framework

The movements of individuals within and among cities influence key aspects of our society, such as the objective and subjective well-being, the diffusion of innovations, the spreading of epidemics, and the quality of the environment. For this reason, there is increasing interest around the challenging problem of flow generation, which consists in generating the flows between a set of geographic locations, given the characteristics of the locations and without any information about the real flows. Existing solutions to flow generation are mainly based on mechanistic approaches, such as the gravity model and the radiation model, which suffer from underfitting and overdispersion, neglect important variables such as land use and the transportation network, and cannot describe non-linear relationships between these variables. In this paper, we propose the Multi-Feature Deep Gravity (MFDG) model as an effective solution to flow generation. On the one hand, the MFDG model exploits a large number of variables (e.g., characteristics of land use and the road network; transport, food, and health facilities) extracted from voluntary geographic information data (OpenStreetMap). On the other hand, our model exploits deep neural networks to describe complex non-linear relationships between those variables. Our experiments, conducted on commuting flows in England, show that the MFDG model achieves a significant increase in the performance (up to 250\% for highly populated areas) than mechanistic models that do not use deep neural networks, or that do not exploit geographic voluntary data. Our work presents a precise definition of the flow generation problem, which is a novel task for the deep learning community working with spatio-temporal data, and proposes a deep neural network model that significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art statistical models.

Deep Gravity: enhancing mobility flows generation with deep neural networks and geographic information.

The study of human mobility is crucial due to its impact on several aspects of our society, such as disease spreading, urban planning, well-being, pollution, and more. The proliferation of digital mobility data, such as phone records, GPS traces, and social media posts, combined with the predictive power of artificial intelligence, triggered the application of deep learning to human mobility. Existing surveys focus on single tasks, data sources, mechanistic or traditional machine learning approaches, while a comprehensive description of deep learning solutions is missing. This survey provides a taxonomy of mobility tasks, a discussion on the challenges related to each task and how deep learning may overcome the limitations of traditional models, a description of the most relevant solutions to the mobility tasks described above and the relevant challenges for the future. Our survey is a guide to the leading deep learning solutions to next-location prediction, crowd flow prediction, trajectory generation, and flow generation. At the same time, it helps deep learning scientists and practitioners understand the fundamental concepts and the open challenges of the study of human mobility.

Most of the studies related to human mobility are focused on intra-country mobility. However, there are many scenarios (e.g., spreading diseases, migration) in which timely data on international commuters are vital. Mobile phones represent a unique opportunity to monitor international mobility flows in a timely manner and with proper spatial aggregation. This work proposes using roaming data generated by mobile phones to model incoming and outgoing international mobility. We use the gravity and radiation models to capture mobility flows before and during the introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, traditional models have some limitations: for instance, mobility restrictions are not explicitly captured and may play a crucial role. To overtake such limitations, we propose the COVID Gravity Model (CGM), namely an extension of the traditional gravity model that is tailored for the pandemic scenario. This proposed approach overtakes, in terms of accuracy, the traditional models by 126.9% for incoming mobility and by 63.9% when modeling outgoing mobility flows. 

/pdf/modeling-international-mobility-using-roaming-cell-phone-1f22iuse.pdf

Massimiliano Luca

Papers

Deep Learning for Human Mobility: a Survey on Data and Models.

Optimizing Transportation Dynamics at a City-Scale Using a Reinforcement Learning Framework

Deep Gravity: enhancing mobility flows generation with deep neural networks and geographic information.

A Survey on Deep Learning for Human Mobility

Modeling international mobility using roaming cell phone traces during COVID-19 pandemic