Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Preface 1. Decision-Theoretic Foundations 1.1 Game Theory, Rationality, and Intelligence 1.2 Basic Concepts of Decision Theory 1.3 Axioms 1.4 The Expected-Utility Maximization Theorem 1.5 Equivalent Representations 1.6 Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems 1.7 Limitations of the Bayesian Model 1.8 Domination 1.9 Proofs of the Domination Theorems Exercises 2. Basic Models 2.1 Games in Extensive Form 2.2 Strategic Form and the Normal Representation 2.3 Equivalence of Strategic-Form Games 2.4 Reduced Normal Representations 2.5 Elimination of Dominated Strategies 2.6 Multiagent Representations 2.7 Common Knowledge 2.8 Bayesian Games 2.9 Modeling Games with Incomplete Information Exercises 3. Equilibria of Strategic-Form Games 3.1 Domination and Ratonalizability 3.2 Nash Equilibrium 3.3 Computing Nash Equilibria 3.4 Significance of Nash Equilibria 3.5 The Focal-Point Effect 3.6 The Decision-Analytic Approach to Games 3.7 Evolution. Resistance. and Risk Dominance 3.8 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 3.9 Bayesian Equilibria 3.10 Purification of Randomized Strategies in Equilibria 3.11 Auctions 3.12 Proof of Existence of Equilibrium 3.13 Infinite Strategy Sets Exercises 4. Sequential Equilibria of Extensive-Form Games 4.1 Mixed Strategies and Behavioral Strategies 4.2 Equilibria in Behavioral Strategies 4.3 Sequential Rationality at Information States with Positive Probability 4.4 Consistent Beliefs and Sequential Rationality at All Information States 4.5 Computing Sequential Equilibria 4.6 Subgame-Perfect Equilibria 4.7 Games with Perfect Information 4.8 Adding Chance Events with Small Probability 4.9 Forward Induction 4.10 Voting and Binary Agendas 4.11 Technical Proofs Exercises 5. Refinements of Equilibrium in Strategic Form 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Perfect Equilibria 5.3 Existence of Perfect and Sequential Equilibria 5.4 Proper Equilibria 5.5 Persistent Equilibria 5.6 Stable Sets 01 Equilibria 5.7 Generic Properties 5.8 Conclusions Exercises 6. Games with Communication 6.1 Contracts and Correlated Strategies 6.2 Correlated Equilibria 6.3 Bayesian Games with Communication 6.4 Bayesian Collective-Choice Problems and Bayesian Bargaining Problems 6.5 Trading Problems with Linear Utility 6.6 General Participation Constraints for Bayesian Games with Contracts 6.7 Sender-Receiver Games 6.8 Acceptable and Predominant Correlated Equilibria 6.9 Communication in Extensive-Form and Multistage Games Exercises Bibliographic Note 7. Repeated Games 7.1 The Repeated Prisoners Dilemma 7.2 A General Model of Repeated Garnet 7.3 Stationary Equilibria of Repeated Games with Complete State Information and Discounting 7.4 Repeated Games with Standard Information: Examples 7.5 General Feasibility Theorems for Standard Repeated Games 7.6 Finitely Repeated Games and the Role of Initial Doubt 7.7 Imperfect Observability of Moves 7.8 Repeated Wines in Large Decentralized Groups 7.9 Repeated Games with Incomplete Information 7.10 Continuous Time 7.11 Evolutionary Simulation of Repeated Games Exercises 8. Bargaining and Cooperation in Two-Person Games 8.1 Noncooperative Foundations of Cooperative Game Theory 8.2 Two-Person Bargaining Problems and the Nash Bargaining Solution 8.3 Interpersonal Comparisons of Weighted Utility 8.4 Transferable Utility 8.5 Rational Threats 8.6 Other Bargaining Solutions 8.7 An Alternating-Offer Bargaining Game 8.8 An Alternating-Offer Game with Incomplete Information 8.9 A Discrete Alternating-Offer Game 8.10 Renegotiation Exercises 9. Coalitions in Cooperative Games 9.1 Introduction to Coalitional Analysis 9.2 Characteristic Functions with Transferable Utility 9.3 The Core 9.4 The Shapkey Value 9.5 Values with Cooperation Structures 9.6 Other Solution Concepts 9.7 Colational Games with Nontransferable Utility 9.8 Cores without Transferable Utility 9.9 Values without Transferable Utility Exercises Bibliographic Note 10. Cooperation under Uncertainty 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Concepts of Efficiency 10.3 An Example 10.4 Ex Post Inefficiency and Subsequent Oilers 10.5 Computing Incentive-Efficient Mechanisms 10.6 Inscrutability and Durability 10.7 Mechanism Selection by an Informed Principal 10.8 Neutral Bargaining Solutions 10.9 Dynamic Matching Processes with Incomplete Information Exercises Bibliography Index

博弈论 : 矛盾冲突分析 = Game theory : analysis of conflict

An Introduction to MultiAgent Systems.

Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a relatively new approach to modelling systems composed of autonomous, interacting agents. Agent-based modelling is a way to model the dynamics of complex systems and complex adaptive systems. Such systems often self-organize themselves and create emergent order. Agent-based models also include models of behaviour (human or otherwise) and are used to observe the collective effects of agent behaviours and interactions. The development of agent modelling tools, the availability of micro-data, and advances in computation have made possible a growing number of agent-based applications across a variety of domains and disciplines. This article provides a brief introduction to ABMS, illustrates the main concepts and foundations, discusses some recent applications across a variety of disciplines, and identifies methods and toolkits for developing agent models.

/pdf/tutorial-on-agent-based-modelling-and-simulation-4xgz9pwney.pdf

Tutorial on agent-based modelling and simulation

A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems

ReLogo is a new agent-based modeling (ABM) domain specific language (DSL) for developing agent-based models in the free and open source Repast Suite of ABM tools; the Java based Repast Simphony ABM toolkit and the C++ high performance computing Repast HPC toolkit both incorporate ReLogo. The language is geared towards a wide range of modeling and programming expertise, combining the sophisticated and powerful ABM infrastructure and capabilities in the Repast Suite with the ease of use of the Logo programming language and its associated programming idioms. This paper will present how ReLogo combines a number of concepts, including object-oriented programming, simple integration of existing code libraries, statically and dynamically typed languages, domain specific languages, and the use of integrated development environments, to create an ABM tool that is easy to learn yet is also capable of creating large scale ABMs of real world complex systems.

/pdf/the-relogo-agent-based-modeling-language-309idtqm0o.pdf

The relogo agent-based modeling language

Since they were first introduced by architect Christopher Alexander in his classic book The Timeless Way of Building, design patterns have offered a powerful yet simple way to conceptualize and communicate designs in many disciplines. Design patterns became widely used for software development by the 1990's. These software design patterns have subsequently been shown to be of great value in improving the reliability and reducing the cost of software. Given that virtually all large-scale agent-based models are ultimately implemented in software, there is great potential for software design patterns to improve the practice of agent-based modeling. Several authors have discussed the use of patterns for agent-based modeling or agent-oriented software. This paper's contribution is that it provides an extensive set of both existing and new agent-based modeling design patterns, each of which is substantiated with at least three successful published example uses in models or modeling platforms.

/pdf/product-design-patterns-for-agent-based-modeling-1i25twwsgl.pdf

Product design patterns for agent-based modeling

In this overview of the Baltic region from the Vikings to the European Union, Michael North presents the sea and the lands that surround it as a Nordic Mediterranean, a maritime zone of shared influence, with its own distinct patterns of trade, cultural exchange, and conflict. Covering over a thousand years in a part of the world where seas have been much more connective than land, The Baltic: A History" transforms the way we think about a body of water too often ignored in studies of the world s major waterways.The Baltic lands have been populated since prehistory by diverse linguistic groups: Balts, Slavs, Germans, and Finns. North traces how the various tribes, peoples, and states of the region have lived in peace and at war, as both global powers and pawns of foreign regimes, and as exceptionally creative interpreters of cultural movements from Christianity to Romanticism and Modernism. He examines the golden age of the Vikings, the Hanseatic League, Gustavus Adolphus of Sweden, and Peter the Great, and looks at the hard choices people had to make in the twentieth century as fascists, communists, and liberal democrats played out their ambitions on the region s doorstep.With its vigorous trade in furs, fish, timber, amber, and grain and its strategic position as a thruway for oil and natural gas, the Baltic has been and remains one of the great economic and cultural crossroads of the world."

The Baltic: A History

Reproducibility is a pillar of the scientific endeavour. We view computer simulations as laboratories for electronic experimentation and therefore as tools for science. Recent studies have addressed model reproduction and found it to be surprisingly difficult to replicate published findings. There have been enough failed simulation replications to raise the question, "can computer models be fully replicated?" This paper answers in the affirmative by reporting on a successful reproduction study using Mathematica, Repast and Swarm for the Beer Game supply chain model. The reproduction process was valuable because it demonstrated the original result's robustness across modelling methodologies and implementation environments.

Agent-based modelling and systems dynamics model reproduction

Contents: Introduction Art and its markets, Michael North & David Ormrod Manuscript acquisition by the Burgundian court and the market for books in the 15th-century Netherlands, Wim Blockmans Some aspects of the origins of the art market in 15th-century Bruges, Maximiliaan P. J. Martens Is art a barometer of wealth? Medieval art exports to the far north of Europe, Jan von Bonsdorff Artistic enterprise and Spanish patronage: the art market during the reign of Isabel of Castile (1474-1504), Mari-Tere Alvarez The Italian Renaissance courts' demand for the arts: the case of d'Este of Ferrara (1471-1560), Guido Guerzoni The Roman art market in the 16th and 17th century, Volker Reinhardt The Upper German trade in art and curiosities before the Thirty Years War, Renate Pieper Pricing the unpriced: how Dutch 17th-century painters determined the selling price of their work, Marten Jan Bok Dealer-dealer pricing in the mid 17th-century Antwerp-to-Paris art trade, Neil de Marchil, Hans Van Miegroet and Matthew E. Raiff Probate inventories, public sales and the Parisian art market in the 17th century, Antoine Schnapper Art auctions in Germany during the 18th century, Thomas Ketelsen Arenas of connoisseurship: auctioning art in later Stuart England, Brian Cowan The origins of the London art market, 1660-1730 , David Ormrod Commerce and the commodity: graphic display and selling new consumer goods in 18th-century England, Maxine Berg and Helen Clifford Intrigue, jewellery and economics: court culture and display in England and France in 1780s, Marcia Pointon Bibliography Index.

Michael North

Papers

The relogo agent-based modeling language

Product design patterns for agent-based modeling

The Baltic: A History

Agent-based modelling and systems dynamics model reproduction

Art Markets in Europe, 1400–1800