戦後アメリカに移住した日本人女性たちの動態 : American Community Survey 2011 PUMSデータの2次分析より

Growth theory predicts that natural disasters should, on impact, lower GDP per capita. However, the empirical literature does not offer conclusive evidence. Most existing studies use disaster data drawn from damage records of insurance companies. We argue that this may lead to estimation bias as damage data and the selection into the database may correlate with GDP. We build a comprehensive database of disaster events and their intensities from primary geophysical and meteorological information. In contrast to insurance data, our GeoMet data reveal a substantial negative and robust average impact effect of disasters on growth. The worst 5% disaster years come with a growth damage of at least 0.45 percentage points. That average effect is driven mainly by very large earthquakes and some meteorological disasters. Poor countries are more strongly affected by geophysical disasters; rich more by meteorological events. International openness and democratic institutions reduce the adverse effect of disasters.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2348054_code459177.pdf?abstractid=2348054&mirid=1

Naturally Negative: The Growth Effects of Natural Disasters

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/89762/1/cesifo_wp4439.pdf

Macroeconomics models, such as the input–output model, the social accounting matrix, and the computable general equilibrium model, have been used for impact analysis of catastrophic disasters for some time. While the use of such models to disaster situation, which may quite differ from the ordinary economic setting, has been critiqued (for recent example, see Albala-Bertrand, 2013), there are still valuable reasons for the use of such models. In particular, such models can be used in order to quickly provide a ballpark estimate of the system-wide impact for recovery plan and finance and/or to evaluate disaster countermeasures in the pre-event period. This paper presents how these methodologies have evolved to incorporate with disaster-specific feature and discusses how far they still need to go from the current stage. This paper also serves as a preface to this special issue, which encompasses several papers devoted to the use of macroeconomic data and models to assess economic losses from disasters.

Disaster impact and input–output analysis

We propose a novel class of game-theoretic models for the optimal assignment of defensive resources in a game between a defender and an attacker. Compared to the other game-theoretic models in the literature of defense allocation problems, the novelty of our model is that we allow the defender to assign her continuous-level defensive resources to any subset (or arbitrary layers) of targets due to functional similarity or geographical proximity. We develop methods to solve for equilibrium, and illustrate our model using numerical examples. Compared to traditional models that only allow for individual target hardening, our results show that our model could significantly increase the defender's payoff, especially when the unit cost of defense is high.

Modeling arbitrary layers of continuous level defenses in facing with strategic attackers

Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters

Modeling the economic consequences of disasters has reached a high level of maturity and accuracy in recent years. Methods for providing reasonably accurate rapid estimates of economic losses, however, are still limited. This article presents the case for “reduced-form” models for rapid economic consequence estimation for disasters, and specifies and statistically estimates a regression equation for property damage from significant U.S. earthquakes. Explanatory variables are of two categories: (1) hazard-related variables pertaining to earthquake characteristics; and (2) exposure-related variables pertaining to socioeconomic conditions. Comparisons to other available earthquake damage estimates indicate that our Reduced-Form Model yields reasonably good results, including several statistically significant variables that are consistent with a priori hypotheses. The article concludes with a discussion of how the research can be enhanced through the collection of data on additional variables, and of the potential for the extension of the reduced-form modeling approach to other hazard types.

/pdf/a-reduced-form-rapid-economic-consequence-estimating-model-2y8dar56cy.pdf

A reduced-form rapid economic consequence estimating model: Application to property damage from U.S. earthquakes

We analyze the macroeconomic and trade impacts of reducing wait times by adding one customs officer at each of the twelve major land freight crossings of the U.S. The change in wait time stemming from staffing changes is first estimated on the basis of primary data and then translated into changes in freight costs through a logistical model. The transportation cost changes are then fed into a multi-country computable general equilibrium model. We find that adding one customs officer at each land border crossing would, on average per crossing, generate an increase in U.S. GDP of $350 thousand and 3.58 additional jobs.

/pdf/competitiveness-and-macroeconomic-impacts-of-reduced-wait-3eab1x4o0c.pdf

Nathaniel Heatwole

Papers

Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters

A reduced-form rapid economic consequence estimating model: Application to property damage from U.S. earthquakes

Competitiveness and macroeconomic impacts of reduced wait times at U.S. land freight border crossings

The impact on the US economy of changes in wait times at ports of entry

Economic Consequences of Terrorism and Natural Disasters: The Computable General Equilibrium Approach