计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

The 2008 crash has left all the established economic doctrines - equilibrium models, real business cycles, disequilibria models - in disarray. Part of the problem is due to Smith’s "veil of ignorance": individuals unknowingly pursue society’s interest and, as a result, have no clue as to the macroeconomic effects of their actions: witness the Keynes and Leontief multipliers, the concept of value added, fiat money, Engel’s law and technical progress, to name but a few of the macrofoundations of microeconomics. A good viewpoint to take bearings anew lies in comparing the post-Great Depression institutions with those emerging from Thatcher and Reagan’s economic policies: deregulation, exogenous vs. endoge- nous money, shadow banking vs. Volcker’s Rule. Very simply, the banks, whose lending determined deposits after Roosevelt, and were a public service became private enterprises whose deposits determine lending. These underlay the great moderation preceding 2006, and the subsequent crash.

The Economic Institutions of Capitalism

Trade is a cornerstone concept in economics worldwide. This updated second edition of the essential graduate textbook in international trade brings readers to the forefront of knowledge in the field and prepares students to undertake their own research. In Advanced International Trade, Robert Feenstra integrates the most current theoretical approaches with empirical evidence, and these materials are supplemented in each chapter by theoretical and empirical exercises.Feenstra explores a wealth of material, such as the Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin models, extensions to many goods and factors, and the role of tariffs, quotas, and other trade policies. He examines imperfect competition, offshoring, political economy, multinationals, endogenous growth, the gravity equation, and the organization of the firm in international trade. Feenstra also includes a new chapter on monopolistic competition with heterogeneous firms, with many applications of that model. In addition to known results, the book looks at some particularly important unpublished results by various authors. Two appendices draw on index numbers and discrete choice models to describe methods applicable to research problems in international trade. Completely revised with the latest developments and brand-new materials, Advanced International Trade is a classic textbook that will be used widely by students and practitioners of economics for a long time to come.Updated second edition of the essential graduate textbookCurrent approaches and a new chapter on monopolistic competition with heterogeneous firmsSupplementary materials in each chapterTheoretical and empirical exercisesTwo appendices describe methods for international trade researchSolutions manual available to professorsProfessors: A supplementary Solutions Manual is available for this book. It is restricted to teachers using the text in courses.

/pdf/advanced-international-trade-theory-and-evidence-ed-2-4l4q17z9al.pdf

Advanced International Trade : Theory and Evidence Ed. 2

Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade.

This paper examines the impact of ownership structures of emerging-market firms, which are shaped by local institutions, on the decision of these firms to undertake outward FDI. Our results suggest that family firms and firms with concentrated ownerships (both ubiquitous in emerging markets) are less likely to invest overseas, and that strategic equity holding by foreign investors facilitates outward FDI. We conclude that organisational forms such as family firms, which are optimal outcomes of institutions prevailing in emerging markets, may be suboptimal in a changing business environment in which outward FDI is necessary for access to resources and markets.

/pdf/does-ownership-structure-of-emerging-market-firms-affect-12qwc21xy8.pdf

Does ownership structure of emerging-market firms affect their outward FDI? The case of the Indian automotive and pharmaceutical sectors

We develop a taxonomy that relates foreign direct investment (FDI) motivation (technology- and cost-based) to its anticipated effects on host countries domestic productivity. We then empirically examine the effects of FDI into the United Kingdom on domestic productivity, and find that different types of FDI have markedly different productivity spillover effects, which are consistent with the conceptual analysis. The UK gains substantially only from inward FDI motivated by a strong technology-based ownership advantage. As theory predicts, inward FDI motivated by technology-sourcing considerations leads to no productivity spillovers.

/pdf/linking-fdi-motivation-and-host-economy-productivity-effects-3p17kleub2.pdf

Linking FDI motivation and host economy productivity effects: conceptual and empirical analysis

One of the basic tenets of UK industrial policy, that attracting inward investment into the UK stimulates domestic productivity growth, is examined. A model of productivity growth is developed for the indigenous sector of UK manufacturing, linking domestic productivity growth to theoretical explanations of inward investment. The paper demonstrates that inward investment does stimulate productivity growth in the domestic sector of around 0.75 per cent per annum. However, this cannot be attributed to investment or output spillovers, but is a result of the productivity advantage exhibited by the foreign firms.

/pdf/the-impact-on-domestic-productivity-of-inward-investment-in-53g2epa2u9.pdf

The Impact on Domestic Productivity of Inward Investment in the UK

This paper examines the relationship between the comparative advantage of UK industries, and new inward investment into these industries. The paper demonstrates that the extent of foreign manufacturing investment in an industry, and the spatial agglomeration of that industry, are significant determinants of industry comparative advantage, thus providing evidence of agglomeration benefits to both domestic and foreign firms. The paper then shows that industry comparative advantage itself, together with a series of industry specific characteristics, are important determinants of new foreign manufacturing investment, thus providing evidence of the dynamic benefits of foreign direct investment in the UK economy.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057%2Fpalgrave.jibs.8490897.pdf

Nigel Driffield

Papers

Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade.

Does ownership structure of emerging-market firms affect their outward FDI? The case of the Indian automotive and pharmaceutical sectors

Linking FDI motivation and host economy productivity effects: conceptual and empirical analysis

The Impact on Domestic Productivity of Inward Investment in the UK

Industrial Performance, Agglomeration, and Foreign Manufacturing Investment in the UK