2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

The rapid increase of carbon dioxide concentration in Earth’s modern atmosphere is a matter of major concern. But for the atmosphere of roughly two-and-half billion years ago, interest centres on a different gas: free oxygen (O2) spawned by early biological production. The initial increase of O2 in the atmosphere, its delayed build-up in the ocean, its increase to near-modern levels in the sea and air two billion years later, and its cause-and-effect relationship with life are among the most compelling stories in Earth’s history.

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The rise of oxygen in Earth’s early ocean and atmosphere

Home PURPOSE OF THE CENTER: To develop the center to address state-of-the-art research, create innovating educational programs, and support technology transfers using commercially viable results to assist the Army Research Laboratory to develop the next generation Future Combat System in the telecommunications sector that assures prevention of perceived threats, and Non Line of Sight/Beyond Line of Sight lethal support.

How to… home page

https://lowcarbonpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/smith-et-al-2010-innovation-studies-and-sustainability-transitions.pdf

Innovation studies and sustainability transitions: the allure of the multi-level perspective and its challenges

Research on sustainability transitions has expanded rapidly in the last ten years, diversified in terms of topics and geographical applications, and deepened with respect to theories and methods. This article provides an extensive review and an updated research agenda for the field, classified into nine main themes: understanding transitions; power, agency and politics; governing transitions; civil society, culture and social movements; businesses and industries; transitions in practice and everyday life; geography of transitions; ethical aspects; and methodologies. The review shows that the scope of sustainability transitions research has broadened and connections to established disciplines have grown stronger. At the same time, we see that the grand challenges related to sustainability remain unsolved, calling for continued efforts and an acceleration of ongoing transitions. Transition studies can play a key role in this regard by creating new perspectives, approaches and understanding and helping to move society in the direction of sustainability.

An agenda for sustainability transitions research: State of the art and future directions

We present a new model of biogeochemical cycling over Phanerozoic time. This work couples a feedback-based model of atmospheric O2 and ocean nutrients (Lenton and Watson, 2000a, 2000b) with a geochemical carbon cycle model (Berner, 1991, 1994), a simple sulfur cycle, and additional components. The resulting COPSE model (Carbon-Oxygen-Phosphorus-Sulfur-Evolution) represents the co-evolution of biotic and abiotic components of the Earth system, in that it couples interactive and evolving terrestrial and marine biota to geochemical and tectonic processes. The model is forced with geological and evolutionary forcings and time-dependent solar insolation. The baseline model succeeds in giving simultaneous predictions of atmospheric O2, CO2, global temperature, ocean composition, δ13C and δ34S that are in reasonable agreement with available data and suggested constraints.

The behavior of the coupled model is qualitatively different to single cycle models. While atmospheric pCO2 (CO2 partial pressure) predictions are mostly determined by the model forcings and the response of silicate weathering rate to pCO2 and temperature, multiple negative feedback processes and coupling of the C, O, P and S cycles are necessary for regulating pO2 while allowing δ13C changes of sufficient amplitude to match the record.

The results support a pO2 dependency of oxidative weathering of reduced carbon and sulfur, which raises early Paleozoic pO2 above the estimated requirement of Cambrian fauna and prevents unrealistically large δ34S variation. They do not support a strong anoxia dependency of the C:P burial ratio of marine organic matter (Van Cappellen and Ingall, 1994, 1996) because this dependency raises early Paleozoic δ13C and organic carbon burial rates too high. The dependency of terrestrial primary productivity on pO2 also contributes to oxygen regulation. An intermediate strength oxygen fire feedback on terrestrial biomass, which gives a pO2 upper limit of ∼1.6PAL (present atmospheric level) or 30 volume percent, provides the best combined pO2 and δ13C predictions.

Sulfur cycle coupling contributes critically to lowering the Permo-Carboniferous pCO2 and temperature minimum. The results support an inverse dependency of pyrite sulfur burial on pO2 (for example, Berner and Canfield, 1989), which contributes to the shuttling of oxygen back and forth between carbonate carbon and gypsum sulfur.

A pO2 dependency of photosynthetic carbon isotope fractionation (Berner and others, 2000; Beerling and others, 2002) is important for producing sufficient magnitude of δ13C variation. However, our results do not support an oxygen dependency of sulfur isotope fractionation in pyrite formation (Berner and others, 2000) because it generates unrealistically small variations in δ34S.

In the Early Paleozoic, COPSE predicts pO2=0.2–0.6PAL and pCO2>10PAL, with high oceanic [PO43-] and low [SO4=]. Land plant evolution caused a ‘phase change’ in the Earth system by increasing weathering rates and shifting some organic burial to land. This change resulted in a major drop in pCO2 to 3 to 4PAL and a rise in pO2 to ∼1.5PAL in the Permo-Carboniferous, with temperatures below present, ocean variables nearer present concentrations, and PO4:NO3 regulated closer to Redfield ratio. A second O2 peak of similar or slightly greater magnitude appears in the mid-Cretaceous, before a descent towards PAL. Mesozoic CO2 is in the range 3 to 7PAL, descending toward PAL in the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

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COPSE: a new model of biogeochemical cycling over Phanerozoic time

http://www.civil.ist.utl.pt/~martinez/PDF/ELECTRICMOVE/Paper30.pdf

A transitions model for sustainable mobility

Domestic energy use accounts for more than a quarter of CO2 emissions in the UK. Traditional approaches to energy reduction look at direct emissions savings, and recommend insulation and efficiency as more cost-effective than microgeneration. However, microgeneration has indirect, ‘soft’ benefits and could play a significant role in emissions reduction. Current uptake of microgeneration in the UK is low, with various barriers—economic, technical, cultural, behavioural and institutional—both to uptake and to maximising energy and emissions savings once installed. Subsidies and spreading information alone do not guarantee maximising uptake, and even if successful, this is not enough to maximise savings. The industry focuses on maximising sales, with no incentives to ensure best installations and use; householders do not have access to the best information, and user behaviour does not maximise energy and emission savings. This is related to a broader state of socio-technical ‘lock-in’ in domestic energy use; there’s a lack of connection between personal behaviour and energy consumption, let alone global climate change. This suggests that a major cultural–behavioural shift is needed to reduce energy/emissions in the home. Transition theory and strategic niche management provide insights into possible systemic change and a suitable framework for future policies, such as supporting a variety of radically innovative niches, both technological and social. Microgeneration, properly employed, has the potential to play a part in such a transition by increasing awareness and energy literacy and empowering people to seriously engage in energy debates as producers, as well as consumers, of energy. This deeper understanding and heightened responsibility are crucial in a shift toward bottom-up emission-reducing behaviour change and better acceptance of top-down energy-saving policy measures, as part of a new domestic energy paradigm. The implications for policy are that, as well as supporting the technologies, it needs to support existing niches and to develop new niche experiments. Policy needs to consider how to promote empowerment and responsibility and support or even develop new energy sector models; this will involve a range of stakeholders and multiple governance levels, not just national incentive schemes.

What role for microgeneration in a shift to a low carbon domestic energy sector in the UK

This paper presents a Conceptual Framework (CF) for analysing and simulating transition dynamics (or radical systemic innovation) that is broadly consistent with both empirical evidence and current theorising about transitions. The framework distinguishes between a dominant socio-technical regime and a number of socio-technical niches. The central feature of the framework is to describe how niches and regime interact to produce a transition dynamic involving either a transformation or a total overthrow of the dominant regime. We base the analysis on reviews of patterns observed in historical transitions, and provide a framework for analysing the processes involved in producing future 'sustainability transitions'.

A Conceptual Framework for transition modelling

We report on research that is developing a simulation model for assessing systemic innovations, or 'transitions', of societal systems towards a more sustainable development. Our overall aim is to outline design principles for models that can offer new insights into tackling persistent problems in large-scale systems, such as the European road transport system or the regional management of water resources. The systemic nature of these problems is associated with them being complex, uncertain and cutting across a number of sectors, and indicates a need for radical technological and behavioural solutions that address changes at the systems level rather than offering incremental changes within sub-systems. Model design is inspired by recent research into transitions, an emerging paradigm which provides a framework for tackling persistent problems. We use concepts from the literature on transitions to develop a prototype of a generic 'transition model'. Our prototype aims to capture different types of transition pathways, using historical examples such as the transition from horse-drawn carriages to cars or that from sailing ships to steam ships. The model combines agent-based modelling techniques and system dynamics, and includes interactions of individual agents and sub-systems, as well as cumulative effects on system structures. We show success in simulating different historical transition pathways by adapting the model's parameters and rules for each example. Finally, we discuss the improvements necessary for systematically exploring and detailing transition pathways in empirical case-study applications to current and future transitions such as the transition to a sustainable transport system in Europe.

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Noam Bergman

Papers

COPSE: a new model of biogeochemical cycling over Phanerozoic time

A transitions model for sustainable mobility

What role for microgeneration in a shift to a low carbon domestic energy sector in the UK

A Conceptual Framework for transition modelling

Modelling socio-technical transition patterns and pathways