Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.

/pdf/probabilistic-21st-and-22nd-century-sea-level-projections-at-323ov0uwbj.pdf

Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites

The Antarctic climate system varies on timescales from orbital, through millennial to sub-annual, and is closely coupled to other parts of the global climate system. We review these variations from the perspective of the geological and glaciological records and the recent historical period from which we have instrumental data (the last 50 years). We consider their consequences for the biosphere, and show how the latest numerical models project changes into the future, taking into account human actions in the form of the release of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere. In doing so, we provide an essential Southern Hemisphere companion to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

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Antarctic climate change and the environment

Holgate, S.J.; Matthews, A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Rickards, L.J.; Tamisiea, M.E.; Bradshaw, E.; Foden, P.R.; Gordon, K.M.; Jevrejeva, S., and Pugh, J., 2013. New data systems and products at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level. Sea-level rise remains one of the most pressing societal concerns relating to climate change. A significant proportion of the global population, including many of the world's large cities, are located close to the coast in potentially vulnerable regions such as river deltas. The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) continues to evolve and provide global coastal sea-level information and products that help to develop our understanding of sea-level and land motion processes. Its work aids a range of scientific research, not only in long-term change, but also in the measurement and understanding of higher frequency variability such as storm surges and tsunamis. The PSMSL has changed considerably over the past 10 years, and the aim of this paper is to update the commu...

https://bioone.org/journals/Journal-of-Coastal-Research/volume-29/issue-3/JCOASTRES-D-12-00175.1/New-Data-Systems-and-Products-at-the-Permanent-Service-for/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00175.1.pdf

New Data Systems and Products at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level

Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise

Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settle- ments, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate dif- ferent risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the com- ing decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5-1.2 m under representa- tive concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4-0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3-0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceano- graphic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of "1-in-10" and "1-in-100" year events.

Earth's Future Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites

To overcome spatial and temporal limitations of sea surface height instruments such as tide gauges, satellite altimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) buoys, we investigate the use of an unmanned, self-propelled Wave Glider surface vehicle equipped with a geodetic GNSS receiver. Centimetric precision instantaneous sea surface height measurement is demonstrated from a 13-day deployment in the North Sea, during which the glider traversed a track of about 600 km. Ellipsoidal heights were estimated at 5 Hz using kinematic GNSS precise point positioning and, after correcting for tides using the Finite Element Solution 2014b model and for the geoid using the Earth Gravitational Model 2008, hourly dynamic ocean topography measurements agreed with those from the UK Met Office Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model-Atlantic Margin Model 7 to 6.1-cm standard deviation. Conversely, on correcting for the tides and dynamic ocean topography, 5.1-cm standard deviation agreement with Earth Gravitational Model 2008 at its North Sea spatial resolution was obtained. Hourly measurements of significant wave height agreed with the WAVEWATCH III model and WaveNet buoy observations to 17 and 24 cm (standard deviation), respectively, and dominant wave periods to 1.4 s. These precisions were obtained in winds gusting up to 20 m/s. Plain Language Summary High-rate (subsecond), continuous sea surface height measurement is demonstrated using an unmanned, self-propelled, surf-board sized Wave Glider surface vehicle equipped with a Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receiver and antenna. GNSS data postprocessing determined centimetric precision sea surface heights over a user-defined, remotely piloted route of about 600 km in the North Sea over 13 days, measuring the waves and the variation in the sea surface from the geoid (the surface it would occupy due to Earth’s gravity alone) caused by winds and currents, plus tides. Our portable, bespoke, in situ measurement method is applicable globally, subject to sufficient light for on-board instrumentation solar power, 10-m water depth, and GNSS signal tracking (outages attributed to waves breaking over the antenna arose when local winds became near gale force). The GNSS Wave Glider overcomes sea surface height measurement spatial resolution limitations of coastline-based tide gauges, single location GNSS buoys and ships following fixed routes, and the temporal and spatial resolution limitations of radar measurements from satellites. Such sea surface height measurements are needed for studies on coastal erosion; for the transport of sediments, pollutants, and heat; for understanding coastal ecosystems and climate change; and for coastal structural design and navigation management.

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Sea Surface Height Measurement Using a GNSS Wave Glider

Evidence for the Indonesian Tsunami in British tidal records

[1] We present a long time series (1992–2001) of bottom temperature from 1040m on the continental slope north of Elephant Island, Antarctic Peninsula. A strong annual signal is apparent, with minimum temperatures during or following the austral winter, and a range similar to that found in much shallower waters on the adjacent shelf. Individual convective events are observable as large-amplitude cold spikes that are confined to the period of seasonally coldest temperatures. These plumes are dense enough to seasonally displace the Circumpolar Deep Water, and directly inject cold water into the deep open ocean. The coldest water occurred when anomalous sea ice conditions were prevalent, caused by the strong 1997/98 ENSO event. We thus expect repeats of such strong convective events on ENSO timescales. The observed long-term warming and reduction in sea ice along the Peninsula may, however, act to suppress this mode of ventilating the deep Southern Ocean.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2003GL017074

Downslope convection north of Elephant Island, Antarctica: Influence on deep waters and dependence on ENSO

A geodetic GPS receiver has been installed on a Wave Glider, an unmanned water surface vehicle. Using kinematic precise point positioning (PPP) GPS, which operates globally without directly requiring reference stations, surface heights are measured with ~0.05-m precision. The GPS Wave Glider was tested in Loch Ness, Scotland, by measuring the gradient of the loch’s surface height. The experiment took place under mild weather, with virtually no wind setup along the loch and a wave field made mostly of ripples and wavelets. Under these conditions, the loch’s surface height gradient should be approximately equal to the geoid slope. The PPP surface height gradient and that of the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 geoid heights do indeed agree on average along the loch (0.03 m km−1). Also detected are 1) ~0.05-m-sized height changes due to daily water pumping for hydroelectricity generation and 2) high-frequency (0.25–0.5 Hz) oscillations caused by surface waves. The PPP heights compare favorably (~0.02-m...

/pdf/water-surface-height-determination-with-a-gps-wave-glider-a-563y1w9w4a.pdf

P. R. Foden

Papers

New Data Systems and Products at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level

Sea Surface Height Measurement Using a GNSS Wave Glider

Evidence for the Indonesian Tsunami in British tidal records

Downslope convection north of Elephant Island, Antarctica: Influence on deep waters and dependence on ENSO

Water Surface Height Determination with a GPS Wave Glider: A Demonstration in Loch Ness, Scotland