Showing papers by "Patrizia Landi published in 2020"

Major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy): a new historical catalog and temporal models of occurrence with uncertainty quantification.

Abstract: Stromboli volcano (Italy), always active with low energy explosive activity, is a very attractive place for visitors, scientists, and inhabitants of the island. Nevertheless, occasional more intense eruptions can present a serious danger. This study focuses on the modeling and estimation of their inter-event time and temporal rate. With this aim we constructed a new historical catalog of major explosions and paroxysms through a detailed review of scientific literature of the last ca. 140 years. The catalog includes the calendar date and phenomena descriptions for 180 explosive events, of which 36 were paroxysms. We evaluated the impact of the main sources of uncertainty affecting the historical catalog. In particular, we categorized as uncertain 45 major explosions that reportedly occurred before 1985 and tested the effect of excluding these events from our analysis. Moreover, after analyzing the entire record in the period [1879, 2020], we separately considered, as sequences, events in [1879, 1960] and in [1985, 2020] because of possible under recording issues in the period [1960, 1985]. Our new models quantify the temporal rate of major explosions and paroxysms as a function of time passed since the last event occurred. Recurrence hazard levels are found to be significantly elevated in the weeks and months following a major explosion or paroxysm, and then gradually decrease over longer periods. Computed hazard functions are also used to illustrate a methodology for estimating order-of-magnitude individual risk of fatality under certain basis conditions. This study represents a first quantitatively formal advance in determining long-term hazard levels at Stromboli.

Crystallization Kinetics of Alkali Feldspar in Peralkaline Rhyolitic Melts: Implications for Pantelleria Volcano

Abstract: Peralkaline rhyolites, associated with extensional tectonic settings, are medium to low viscosity magmas that often produce eruptive styles ranging from effusive to highly explosive eruptions. The role of pre-eruptive conditions and crystallization kinetics in influencing the eruptive style of peralkaline rhyolitic magmas has been investigated and debated considering equilibrium conditions. However, experimental constraints on the effect of disequilibrium in crystallization in such magmas are currently lacking in the literature. Therefore, we performed isobaric cooling experiments to investigate alkali feldspar crystallization kinetics in peralkaline rhyolitic melts. Experiments were performed under water-saturated, water-undersaturated and anhydrous conditions between 25 and 100 MPa, at 670-790 °C and with experimental durations ranging from 0.5 to 420 hours. Here we present the first data on crystallization kinetics of alkali feldspar, which is the main crystal phase in peralkaline rhyolitic melts, in order to improve our understanding of the evolutionary timescales of these melts and their ability to shift between effusive and explosive activity. Our experimental results indicate that the alkali feldspar nucleation delay can range from hours to several days as a function of undercooling and H2O content in the melt. Thus, a peralkaline rhyolitic magma can be stored at the pre-eruptive conditions for days without important variations of its crystal fraction. This suggests that crystallization may not necessarily play the main role in triggering fragmentation during explosive eruptions of peralkaline rhyolitic magmas.

The Onano eruption (Latera volcano, Central Italy): an example of magma mixing/mingling as dominant process in a caldera-forming eruption

Abstract: The Onano eruption (~ 0.17 Ma) is the second to last caldera-forming eruption of the Latera volcano, in the northernmost sector of the Roman Comagmatic Province (Latium, Italy). The stratigraphic sequence, from base to top, includes ash and pumice-rich flow deposits, spatter-rich flow deposits and lag breccias associated with ash-rich flow deposits. By combining major and trace element compositions of the bulk rocks, matrix glasses and minerals of juvenile components from the different depositional units, we reconstruct the pre-eruptive evolution of the magma chamber and the syn-eruptive magma dynamics. Juvenile clasts with heterogeneous glass composition and/or mineral assemblage are a ubiquitous feature of the Onano eruption. The products cover a large compositional range from phonotephrite to phonolite. They are crystal poor, with felsic paragenesis associated to Mg-rich olivine (Fo82–90) and diopside (Fs4–7), these last not in equilibrium with the erupted melts. The mafic mineral assemblage suggests that the pre-eruption magma reservoir was periodically perturbed by the arrival of a primitive magma carrying on Mg-rich minerals and/or remobilizing a mafic crystal mush at the bottom of the reservoir. According to the results obtained from both rhyolite-MELTS and Rayleigh crystal fractionation modeling, we infer that the system evolved from phonotephrite to phonolite both via crystal fractionation and magma mixing between the two end members. Crystallization mostly proceeded at the wall of the reservoir, while magma mixing in the middle zones of the chamber generated the intermediate tephriphonolitic melts. The pre-eruptive chemical zoning was disrupted during the course of the eruption due to the simultaneous withdrawal of magma from different portions of the reservoir. During the first phase of the eruption, high-silica tephriphonolitic to phonolitic melts, residing in the upper part of the reservoir, were emitted with less involvement of the deeper phonotephrite. Phonotephritic magmas, with only a minor contribution of evolved melts, were later erupted as spatter-rich pyroclastic flows that preceded the main caldera collapse. During the caldera collapse, the whole reservoir was involved, leading to extensive and intimate syn-eruption mingling of the different melts. A comparison between the Onano eruption and other eruptions of the Italian high potassic volcanism provides new insights into the evolution of the Roman Comagmatic Province magmas and their eruptive processes.

Prognostic Value of Heart Rate Reserve in Patients with Permanent Atrial Fibrillation during Dipyridamole Stress Echocardiography.

Abstract: In patients in sinus rhythm, a blunted heart rate reserve (HRR) during dipyridamole stress echocardiography (SE) is a prognostically unfavorable sign of cardiac autonomic dysfunction. In this study we sought to assess the prognostic meaning of HRR in patients with permanent atrial fibrillation (AF). The study population was made by 301 patients (176 men, age 73 ± 8 years) with suspected (n = 200) or known (n = 101) coronary artery disease and permanent AF who underwent high-dose dipyridamole SE. HRR was calculated on an average of 5 consecutive beats as the peak/rest ratio of HR from 12-lead EKG. During a median follow-up time of 77 months (first quartile 44, third quartile 115 months), 111 (37%) patients died. Receiver operating characteristics analysis identified HRR ≤1.17 as the best predictor of mortality. At multivariable analysis, HRR ≤1.17 (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.62; p = 0.006) independently predicted mortality together with age (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.13; p