Future grid management systems will coordinate distributed production and storage resources to manage, in a cost effective fashion, the increased load and variability brought by the electrification of transportation and by a higher share of weather dependent production. Electricity demand forecasts at a low level of aggregation will be key inputs for such systems. We focus on forecasting demand at the individual household level, which is more challenging than forecasting aggregate demand, due to the lower signal-to-noise ratio and to the heterogeneity of consumption patterns across households. We propose a new ensemble method for probabilistic forecasting, which borrows strength across the households while accommodating their individual idiosyncrasies. In particular, we develop a set of models or 'experts' which capture different demand dynamics and we fit each of them to the data from each household. Then we construct an aggregation of experts where the ensemble weights are estimated on the whole data set, the main innovation being that we let the weights vary with the covariates by adopting an additive model structure. In particular, the proposed aggregation method is an extension of regression stacking (Breiman, 1996) where the mixture weights are modelled using linear combinations of parametric, smooth or random effects. The methods for building and fitting additive stacking models are implemented by the gamFactory R package, available at this https URL.

Additive stacking for disaggregate electricity demand forecasting

"This study investigates the effects of local broadband internet availability on establishment- level employment growth. The analysis uses data for Germany in the years 2005-2009, when broadband was introduced in rural regions of Western Germany and in large parts of Eastern Germany. Technical frictions in broadband rollout are exploited to obtain exogenous variation in local broadband availability. The results suggest that broadband expansion had a positive effect on employment growth in the Western German service sector and a negative effect in Western German manufacturing. This pattern of results is driven by pronounced positive effects in knowledge- and computer-intensive industries, suggesting that it is the actual use of broadband in the production process that leads to complementary hiring, respectively a slowdown of employment growth, in the respective sectors. For Eastern Germany, no significant employment growth effects are found." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

The effect of broadband internet on establishments' employment growth: evidence from Germany

The European Values Study (EVS) was first conducted in 1981 and then repeated in 1990, 1999, 2008, and 2017, with the aim of providing researchers with data to investigate whether European individual and social values are changing and to what degree. The EVS is traditionally carried out as a probability-based face-to-face survey that takes around 1 hour to complete. In recent years, large-scale population surveys such as the EVS have been challenged by decreasing response rates and increasing survey costs. In the light of these challenges, six countries that participated in the last wave of the EVS tested the application of self-administered mixed-modes (Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, the Netherlands, and Switzerland). With the present data brief, we will introduce researchers to the latest wave of the EVS, the implemented mode experiments, and the EVS data releases. In our view, it is pivotal for data use in substantive research to make the reasoning behind design changes and country-specific implementations transparent as well as to highlight new research opportunities.

https://serval.unil.ch/resource/serval:BIB_44A99FABE750.P001/REF.pdf

The European Values Study 2017: On the Way to the Future Using Mixed-Modes

Mit dieser Studie zeigen wir fur Deutschland, dass der heutige Arbeitslohn einer Person, ein Indikator fur die individuelle Arbeitsproduktivitat, unabhangig davon, wo eine Person heute tatig ist, ceteris paribus signifikant hoher ist, wenn die Person in der Vergangenheit Arbeitserfahrung in grosen, also eher stadtischen statt in kleinen, eher landlichen Arbeitsmarkten gesammelt hat, wobei wir die Arbeitsmarktgrose anhand der Beschaftigtenzahl messen. Die vorliegende Arbeit liefert neue Erkenntnisse
uber die Grose dieser dynamischen Agglomerationsvorteile, die mutmaslich auf Lernexternalitaten in grosen Arbeitsmarkten zuruckzufuhren sind. Es wird die Elastizitat individueller Lohne hinsichtlich der (kumulierten) Grose der regionalen Arbeitsmarke geschatzt, in denen zuvor Arbeitserfahrung
gesammelt wurde. Ein zentrales Ergebnis ist, dass diese Elastizitat im Erwerbsverlauf mit der Dauer vorheriger Beschaftigungszeiten bis zu einem Niveau von uber 0,06 ansteigt. Folglich ware der individuelle Lohn einer Arbeitskraft mit 20 Jahren Arbeitserfahrung oder mehr heute um vier bis funf
Prozent hoher, hatte die Person die Arbeitserfahrung in regionalen Arbeitsmarkten gesammelt, die doppelt so gros hinsichtlich lokaler Beschaftigung gewesen waren wie die Arbeitsmarkte, in denen die Person tatsachlich gearbeitet hat. Die Analyse beruht auf Informationen zu individuellen Arbeitsmarktbiografien und regionaler Beschaftigung in Deutschland ab 1975. Die Lohninformation bezieht sich auf Lohne, die zu Beginn von mehr als 300.000 im Zeitraum 2005 bis 2011 begonnenen neuen
Beschaftigungsverhatnissen in Deutschland gezahlt wurden. Es wird berucksichtigt, dass erworbene Kenntnisse und Fahigkeiten im Zeitverlauf anWert verlieren und dass Arbeitskrafte mutmaslich insbesondere
von hochqualifizierten Personen lernen.

Quantifying the effect of labor market size on learning externalities

Relationship Between Project Managers’ Age, Years of Project Experience, and Project Success by Lulzim Hoxha MBA, Aspen University, 2009 BEng, Polytechnic University of Tirana, 2001 Doctoral Study Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Business Administration Walden University December 2017 Abstract Project failures are costly to businesses and are increasingly present in the news. In many industries, projects have a 40% failure rate, and 90% of venture capital projects fail even to start. Project managers play a key role in delivering successful projects. The purpose of this correlational study was to examine the relationship between project manager’s age and years of project experience and project success. The population of this studyProject failures are costly to businesses and are increasingly present in the news. In many industries, projects have a 40% failure rate, and 90% of venture capital projects fail even to start. Project managers play a key role in delivering successful projects. The purpose of this correlational study was to examine the relationship between project manager’s age and years of project experience and project success. The population of this study consisted of 108 active or former project managers working in Albania or Kosovo who were LinkedIn members. The study was not grounded in a named theory; rather, based on the conceptual framework that project managers’ age and years of project experience may predict project success. The independent variables were project managers’ age and years of project experience, and the dependent variable was project success. Data were collected using a questionnaire posted on the SurveyMonkey website and analyzed using multiple linear regression. The results revealed that age has a negative, though not statistically significant, effect on project success. Project managers’ experience has a positive influence on project success; this effect is also not statistically significant. The coefficient of determination R2 was .02, which demonstrated that only 2% of project success relates to the independent variables. The study may contribute to positive social change by helping project managers and leaders of international development agencies, that conduct project to positively affect social change through improvements in areas such as agriculture, water, sewage, health, nutrition, education, environment, and social development. An increased rate of project success may translate into an improvement of livelihood for local communities in low-income countries. Relationship Between Project Managers’ Age, Years of Project Experience, and Project Success by Lulzim Hoxha MBA, Aspen University, 2009 BEng, Polytechnic University of Tirana, 2001 Doctoral Study Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Business Administration Walden University December 2017

/pdf/relationship-between-project-managers-age-years-of-project-3tsk2kdj88.pdf

Relationship Between Project Managers’ Age, Years of Project Experience, and Project Success

\n Telephone surveys have been a ubiquitous method of collecting survey data, but the environment for telephone surveys is changing. Many surveys are transitioning from telephone to self-administration or combinations of modes for both recruitment and survey administration. Survey organizations are conducting these transitions from telephone to mixed modes with only limited guidance from existing empirical literature and best practices. This article summarizes findings by an AAPOR Task Force on how these transitions have occurred for surveys and research organizations in general. We find that transitions from a telephone to a self-administered or mixed-mode survey are motivated by a desire to control costs, to maintain or improve data quality, or both. The most common mode to recruit respondents when transitioning is mail, but recent mixed-mode studies use only web or mail and web together as survey administration modes. Although early studies found that telephone response rates met or exceeded response rates to the self-administered or mixed modes, after about 2013, response rates to the self-administered or mixed modes tended to exceed those for the telephone mode, largely because of a decline in the telephone mode response rates. Transitioning offers opportunities related to improved frame coverage and geographic targeting, delivery of incentives, visual design of an instrument, and cost savings, but challenges exist related to selecting a respondent within a household, length of a questionnaire, differences across modes in use of computerization to facilitate skip patterns and other questionnaire design features, and lack of an interviewer for respondent motivation and clarification. Other challenges related to surveying youth, conducting surveys in multiple languages, collecting nonsurvey data such as biomeasures or consent to link to administrative data, and estimation with multiple modes are also prominent.

/pdf/transitions-from-telephone-surveys-to-self-administered-and-40jo5vvlnh.pdf

Transitions from Telephone Surveys to Self-Administered and Mixed-Mode Surveys: AAPOR Task Force Report

A key goal of survey interviews is to collect the highest quality data possible from respondents In practice, however, it can be difficult to achieve this goal because respondents do not always un

Using mouse movements to predict web survey response difficulty

Online-Befragungen sind zu einer ublichen und haufig praferierten Datenerhebungsmethode geworden. Die hohe Flexibilitat und Anpassbarkeit ist ein wesentlicher Vorteil dieser Technologie. Die technischen Moglichkeiten werden oft von Umfrageentwicklern verwendet, beispielsweise um die Befragten mithilfe automatischer Filter durch den Fragebogen zu fuhren. Andere Features wie beispielsweise Mausbewegungen konnen eingesetzt werden, um einzelne Befragte zu identifizieren, die besonderer Aufmerksamkeit bedurfen. Forscher aus verschiedenen Disziplinen haben insbesondere die zuruckgelegte Distanz, den Pfad der Maus und andere Bewegungsmuster analysiert, um damit Interesse, Unsicherheit und aufgetretene Schwierigkeiten beim Befragten zu messen. Die aktuelle Studie strebt die Entwicklung von Indikatoren und automatischen Prozeduren an, mit deren Hilfe Schwierigkeiten des Befragten diagnostiziert und quantifiziert werden sollen. Zu diesem Zweck wird auf vielversprechende Indikatoren aus der vorherigen Forschung und auf jungste methodologische Fortschritte aus der Psychologie zuruckgegriffen. Die psychologische Literatur schlagt vor, auf Basis von Mausbewegungen den kognitiven Zwiespalt zwischen einzelnen Antwortalternativen bzw. die Unsicherheit bei der Auswahl zu beurteilen.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/182139/1/dp3417.pdf

Learning from Mouse Movements: Improving Questionnaires and Respondents' User Experience Through Passive Data Collection

"Web surveys have become a standard, and often preferred, mode of survey administration in part because the technology underlying them is much more adaptable. Survey designers often use these technical features to help guide respondents through a survey, by incorporating automated skips, for example. Other features, such as mouse movements, can be used to identify individual respondents that may require attention. Specifically, researchers in a variety of fields have used the total distance traveled, the cursor's trajectory, and specific patterns of movement to measure interest, uncertainty, and respondent difficulty. The current study aims to develop automated procedures for detecting and quantifying difficulty indicators in web surveys. It will use, and build on, indicators that have been identified by prior research. In addition, the current study relies on recent methodological advances in psychology that propose mouse-tracking measures for assessing the tentative commitments to, and conflict between, response alternatives." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information spatere (moglw. abweichende) Version erschienen in: P. C. Beatty, D. Collins, L. Kaye, J. L. Padilla, G. Willis & A. Wilmot (Eds.) (2020): Advances in questionnaire design, development, evaluation and testing, S. 403-426

Rachel Horwitz

Papers

Transitions from Telephone Surveys to Self-Administered and Mixed-Mode Surveys: AAPOR Task Force Report

Using mouse movements to predict web survey response difficulty

Learning from Mouse Movements: Improving Questionnaires and Respondents' User Experience Through Passive Data Collection

Learning from mouse movements: Improving questionnaire and respondents' user experience through passive data collection